ICU Medical (ICUI)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$166.62-1.02%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge ICU Medical’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

9.67 → 9.67 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	560.96M
EPS	—	2.224
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.19B
EPS	$2.89–$3.29GAAP $8.6–$9	8.74
EBITDA	$415M–$435Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.28B
EPS	—	9.667

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operations grows to at least $51M	Cash from operations rose to $51.3M in 2026-Q1.	Intact	cash from operations falls below $51 million in any future quarter	Cash from operations: $80.15M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=51 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 202680,150,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Net cash provided by operating activities increased from $62.5 million in first half 2025 to $119.1 million in first half 2026. Management is delivering improved cash flow generation consistent with stated goals. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Gross profit stays near $206M	A supporting condition in ICU Medical's published investment case. The stated target is >=206 million USD.	Under Pressure	gross profit falls below $206 million in any future quarter	Gross profit: $235.053M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=206 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 2026235,053,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4db56db5-c605-449b-8a13-710344b8500c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. GAAP gross margin improved from 38% in 2025-Q2 to 43% in 2026-Q2, demonstrating progress in operational efficiencies and product mix. The trajectory shows delivering on gross profit enhancement. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Net income improves to at least $30M	ICU Medical improved net income to $30.1M in 2026-Q1.	Intact	net income falls below $30 million in any future quarter	Net income: $19.087M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=30 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 202619,087,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4db56db5-c605-449b-8a13-710344b8500c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. GAAP net income improved from a loss of $(15.7) million in 2025-Q4 to a profit of $19.1 million in 2026-Q2, with adjusted diluted EPS rising from $1.91 to $2.37 over the same period. Management's focus on improving net income is delivering a positive trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue grows at least 3.5% year over year	A primary condition in ICU Medical's published investment case. The stated target is >=3.5% YoY.	Intact	revenue growth falls below 3.5% year over year next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$9.67

$9.34 → $9.67 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.28B

$2.27B → $2.28B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$9.34	$2,271,971,430	8 / 7
2026-07-25	$9.31	$2,266,773,657	6 / 6
2026-07-26	$9.34	$2,271,971,430	8 / 7
2026-07-27	$9.31	$2,266,773,657	6 / 6
2026-07-28	$9.34	$2,271,971,430	8 / 7
2026-07-29	$9.34	$2,271,971,430	8 / 7
2026-07-30	$9.34	$2,271,971,430	8 / 7
2026-07-31	$9.34	$2,271,971,430	8 / 7
2026-08-01	$9.31	$2,266,773,657	6 / 6
2026-08-02	$9.31	$2,266,773,657	6 / 6
2026-08-03	$9.34	$2,271,971,430	8 / 7
2026-08-04	$9.34	$2,271,971,430	8 / 7
2026-08-05	$9.34	$2,271,971,430	8 / 7
2026-08-06	$9.31	$2,266,787,943	6 / 6
2026-08-07	$9.31	$2,266,787,943	6 / 6
2026-08-08	$9.50	$2,273,300,000	8 / 7
2026-08-09	$9.50	$2,273,300,000	8 / 7
2026-08-10	$9.31	$2,266,787,943	6 / 6
2026-08-12	$9.65	$2,288,015,640	8 / 8
2026-08-13	$9.31	$2,266,787,943	6 / 6
2026-08-14	$9.31	$2,266,787,943	6 / 6
2026-08-15	$9.31	$2,266,787,943	6 / 6
2026-08-16	$9.31	$2,266,787,943	6 / 6
2026-08-17	$9.31	$2,266,787,943	6 / 6
2026-08-18	$9.31	$2,266,787,943	6 / 6
2026-08-19	$9.31	$2,266,787,943	6 / 6
2026-08-20	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 6
2026-08-21	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 6
2026-08-22	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 6
2026-08-23	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 6
2026-08-24	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 6
2026-08-25	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 6
2026-08-26	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 6
2026-08-27	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 6
2026-08-28	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 6
2026-08-29	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 6
2026-08-30	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 6
2026-08-31	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 6
2026-09-01	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 6
2026-09-02	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 6
2026-09-03	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 6
2026-09-04	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 6
2026-09-05	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 6
2026-09-06	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 6
2026-09-07	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 6
2026-09-08	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 6
2026-09-09	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 6
2026-09-10	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 6
2026-09-11	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 6
2026-09-12	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 6
2026-09-13	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 6
2026-09-14	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 6
2026-09-15	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 6
2026-09-16	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 6
2026-09-17	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 6
2026-09-18	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 6
2026-09-19	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 6
2026-09-20	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 6
2026-09-21	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 6
2026-09-22	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 6
2026-09-23	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 6
2026-09-24	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 7
2026-09-25	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 7
2026-09-26	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 7
2026-09-27	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 7
2026-09-28	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 7
2026-09-29	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 7
2026-09-30	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 7
2026-10-01	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 7
2026-10-02	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 7
2026-10-03	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 7
2026-10-04	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 7
2026-10-05	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 7
2026-10-06	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 7
2026-10-07	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 7
2026-10-08	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 7
2026-10-09	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 7
2026-10-10	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 7
2026-10-11	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 7
2026-10-12	$9.67	$2,280,000,000	6 / 7
2026-10-13	$9.67	$2,280,050,771	6 / 7
2026-10-14	$9.67	$2,280,050,771	6 / 7
2026-10-15	$9.67	$2,280,050,771	6 / 7
2026-10-16	$9.67	$2,280,050,771	6 / 7
2026-10-17	$9.67	$2,280,050,771	6 / 7
2026-10-18	$9.67	$2,280,050,771	6 / 7
2026-10-19	$9.67	$2,280,050,771	6 / 7
2026-10-20	$9.67	$2,280,050,771	6 / 7
2026-10-21	$9.67	$2,280,050,771	6 / 7
2026-10-22	$9.67	$2,280,050,771	6 / 7
2026-10-23	$9.67	$2,280,050,771	6 / 7
2026-10-24	$9.67	$2,280,050,771	6 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	7	1
2026-06-01	8	0
2026-07-01	8	1
2026-08-01	7	1
2026-09-01	7	1
2026-10-01	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operations grows to at least $51MCash from operations: $80.15M
Gross profit stays near $206MPublished status: Under Pressure
Net income improves to at least $30MNet income: $19.087M
Revenue grows at least 3.5% year over yearDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

ICU Medical outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a recovery-oriented healthcare business with improving recent results, rather than a proven, consistently profitable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, with management execution supporting progress, but the business is still classified as loss-making.

What's priced into ICU Medical

The valuation evidence is mixed: ICUI is described as cheap versus peers, while its peer premium measure is elevated. Expectations appear close to the evidence baseline, with no major pricing fragility flagged; the valuation measure also recently declined.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the recent trend is strong: management raised guidance, and net income, operating cash flow, and gross margin have improved. Still, earnings surprises have been trending down, and the company has a history of a deep miss, so guidance execution remains important.

What ICU Medical hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management sustaining its recent progress without reversing the guidance increase. A weakening jobs trend could add pressure across healthcare names, while continued strength from sector peers could support the sector backdrop.