ICF International, Inc. (ICFI)

NASDAQIndustrialsConsulting ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$94.40+1.15%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge ICF International, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	501.44M
EPS	—	1.832
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.9B
EPS	$6.95–$7.25non-GAAP	7.108
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.02B
EPS	—	7.71

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.14 per share	The company pays a steady dividend of $0.14 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.14 quarterly	Dividend per share: $0.14 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $0.14 per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20260.14 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c8b81f8c-c813-4ceb-99d7-6d656f48eaad. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The Board declared and paid a quarterly dividend of $0.14 per share consistently in Q1 and Q2 2026. Dividend payments have been maintained as committed, demonstrating delivery on this capital allocation priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
EPS about $7.10 in 2026	Profit per share should be about $7.10.	Broken	EPS falls below $6.95 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $1.49 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$7.10. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20261.49 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c8b81f8c-c813-4ceb-99d7-6d656f48eaad. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow between $135M and $150M in 2026	Free cash flow is guided to $142.5 million.	Under Pressure	Free cash flow falls below $135 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $94.028M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $135M to $150M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202694,028,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management expects operating cash flow of $135M to $150M for 2026. Reported operating cash flow was $99.7M in 2026-Q2 (including restricted cash) and negative $3.1M in 2026-Q1, indicating some volatility but management remains on track to meet full year guidance. The trajectory shows limited progress so far but consistent focus. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue near $1.93 billion in 2026	ICF expects revenue near $1.93 billion in 2026.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $1.89 billion in FY26	Revenue: $474.495M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.93B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026474,495,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c8b81f8c-c813-4ceb-99d7-6d656f48eaad. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$7.68 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$2.01B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.68	$2,009,287,600	5 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-26	$7.68	$2,009,287,600	5 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-28	$7.68	$2,009,287,600	5 / 5
2026-07-29	$7.68	$2,009,287,600	5 / 5
2026-07-30	$7.68	$2,009,287,600	5 / 5
2026-07-31	$7.68	$2,009,287,600	5 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-02	$7.68	$2,009,287,600	5 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-04	$7.68	$2,009,287,600	5 / 5
2026-08-05	$7.68	$2,009,287,600	5 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-09	$7.73	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-12	$7.70	$2,016,468,200	5 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	1
2026-06-01	4	1
2026-07-01	4	1
2026-08-01	4	1
2026-09-01	4	1
2026-10-01	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.14 per shareDividend per share: $0.14 per share
EPS about $7.10 in 2026Published status: Broken
Free cash flow between $135M and $150M in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue near $1.93 billion in 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-38.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

ICF International, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment is characterized as a durable compounder, focusing on steady revenue and earnings growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent earnings beats and management's commitment to growth.

What's priced into ICF International, Inc.

The market currently prices ICFI as cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. This suggests that investors may not fully anticipate the potential for revenue and earnings growth that management has reaffirmed.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to show gradual improvement, as management aims for revenue and EPS growth in 2026. However, there is some volatility in operating cash flow, which could impact overall performance in the near term.

What ICF International, Inc. hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like EFX, BAH, and FCN. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable backdrop for ICFI, while any negative guidance from them could pose risks.