ICICI BANK LTD (IBN)

NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-16

$29.99+1.87%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 16, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge ICICI BANK LTD’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
capital raised via bond issue supports growth	It plans a $500 million bond issue, showing strong capital and growth potential.	Intact	bond issue delayed or fails to raise targeted capital	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
earnings per share growth	A primary condition in ICICI BANK LTD's published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY EPS growth.	Broken	YoY EPS growth falls below 10% in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
impact of RBI SMS order on bank income	A supporting condition in ICICI BANK LTD's published investment case. The stated target is income impact contained below Rs 300 crore.	Intact	income impact exceeds Rs 300 crore and persists beyond 1 year	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
successful integration of Aseem Infrastructure Finance acquisition	The bank's strategic acquisitions like Aseem Infrastructure Finance boost its market position.	Intact	acquisition fails to contribute positively to earnings by FY27	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue$1574.72B

$1570.12B → $1574.72B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$1,570,120,014,810	1 / 36
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$1,558,568,117,207	2 / 19
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$1,557,434,897,547	2 / 20
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$1,570,940,122,520	1 / 37
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$1,570,940,122,520	1 / 37
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$1,571,043,527,930	1 / 37
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$1,571,043,527,930	1 / 37
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$1,571,043,527,930	1 / 37
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$1,557,725,265,459	2 / 20
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$1,571,043,527,930	1 / 37
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$1,571,043,527,930	1 / 37
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$1,571,043,527,930	1 / 37
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$1,571,043,527,930	1 / 37
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$1,571,043,527,930	1 / 37
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$1,551,826,578,941	2 / 20
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$1,551,826,578,941	2 / 20
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$1,571,043,527,930	1 / 37
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$1,571,043,527,930	1 / 37
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$1,571,043,527,930	1 / 37
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$1,571,043,527,930	1 / 37
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$1,551,826,578,941	2 / 20
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$1,551,826,578,941	2 / 20
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$1,551,826,578,941	2 / 20
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$1,551,826,578,941	2 / 20
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$1,551,826,578,941	2 / 20
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$1,551,826,578,941	2 / 20
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$1,555,381,578,839	2 / 20
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$1,555,381,578,839	2 / 20
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$1,555,411,354,580	2 / 20
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$1,555,411,354,580	2 / 20
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$1,555,411,354,580	2 / 20
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$1,555,411,354,580	2 / 20
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$1,555,411,354,580	2 / 20
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$1,555,411,354,580	2 / 20
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$1,555,411,354,580	2 / 20
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$1,555,411,354,580	2 / 20
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$1,555,411,354,580	2 / 20
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$1,555,411,354,580	2 / 20
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$1,556,956,793,054	2 / 20
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$1,556,956,793,054	2 / 20
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$1,557,058,238,396	2 / 20
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$1,557,058,238,396	2 / 20
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$1,557,058,238,396	2 / 20
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$1,557,058,238,396	2 / 20
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$1,557,058,238,396	2 / 20
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$1,558,652,396,523	2 / 20
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$1,558,652,396,523	2 / 20
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$1,558,652,396,523	2 / 20
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$1,558,652,396,523	2 / 20
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$1,558,652,396,523	2 / 20
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$1,558,652,396,523	2 / 20
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$1,558,652,396,523	2 / 20
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$1,558,652,396,523	2 / 20
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$1,558,652,396,523	2 / 20
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$1,558,652,396,523	2 / 20
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$1,558,652,396,523	2 / 20
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$1,558,652,396,523	2 / 20
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$1,558,652,396,523	2 / 20
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$1,566,506,816,621	3 / 20
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$1,565,091,384,666	3 / 20
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$1,566,605,542,318	3 / 20
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$1,566,588,633,497	3 / 20
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$1,567,364,257,481	3 / 20
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$1,567,159,715,291	3 / 20
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$1,567,159,715,291	3 / 20
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$1,569,861,308,537	3 / 20
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$1,571,788,095,967	3 / 20
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$1,571,502,473,433	3 / 20
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$1,570,669,385,615	3 / 20
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$1,572,001,740,453	3 / 20
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$1,573,545,451,219	2 / 20
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$1,571,794,983,632	2 / 20
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$1,572,266,428,656	3 / 20
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$1,572,266,428,656	3 / 20
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$1,572,266,428,656	3 / 19
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$1,573,217,270,959	3 / 19
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$1,573,217,270,959	3 / 19
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$1,572,148,836,419	3 / 18
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$1,572,148,836,419	3 / 18
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$1,572,575,531,781	3 / 18
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$1,573,227,844,020	3 / 18
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$1,575,100,097,585	3 / 18
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$1,574,902,431,336	3 / 18
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$1,574,717,404,424	3 / 18

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	0	0
2026-06-01	4	0	0
2026-07-01	4	0	0
2026-08-01	4	0	0
2026-09-01	4	0	0
2026-10-01	4	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 17–Oct 16 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 17, 2026–Oct 16, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

capital raised via bond issue supports growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping
earnings per share growthPublished status: Broken
impact of RBI SMS order on bank incomeQualitative condition
successful integration of Aseem Infrastructure Finance acquisitionQualitative condition

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-23.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

ICICI BANK LTD outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a moderate-risk play in the financial sector, which is currently experiencing headwinds. The thesis is still in an insufficient state due to a lack of recent financial performance history.

What's priced into ICICI BANK LTD

The market seems to have muted expectations for IBN, reflecting uncertainty about its near-term performance. Given the current backdrop, the valuation may be seen as fair compared to peers, but the expectations are low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals may remain under pressure, especially considering the recent trend of misses in earnings reports. While the probability of missing expectations is low, the recent performance of IBN and its peers raises concerns.

What ICICI BANK LTD hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like HDB, USB, and PNC. If these companies continue to beat earnings and guide higher, it could provide a favorable lift for IBN; however, any misses or lower guidance could negatively impact the stock.