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Hoyne Bancorp Inc (HYNE)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-07-06
Watch· this week
$16.75+0.36%
Close 2026-07-06 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
The thesis is that steady management supports growth in a weak financial environment. The latest performance shows insufficient recent financial history to read a clear thesis. HYNE trades at 0.8× price-to-book versus a peer median of 1.2×. This suggests the price is roughly in line with the growth we forecast. A specific risk is that if sector bellwethers start missing earnings, it could hurt HYNE. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades; this read is provisional.
as of 2026-07-06
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Banks - Regional
- Market cap
- $124.36M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2025-06-17
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-11
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $16.75. As of 2026-07-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Fair value· primary
$17.12
Range $12.43 – $21.82
vs price: -2% below
Method agreement : high · 2 methods
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
3-year
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
5-year
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $17 HYNE trades at 0.8× p/b, below its 1.2× p/b peer median. Our $27 fair value sits well above the price. It's a high-confidence read. Not investment advice.
Multiple (multiple)
0.8x
peer 1.2x · own history —
Premium
0.6x peer
Growth the price needs
-38%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$26.58
range $26.58 – $26.58
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
12-month view
What's priced in
The price sits about 37% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
6.5xP/S · peer median 3.0x
Looks more expensive than peers.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=7357).
11th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
Not enough signal yet.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
stable2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2527).
75th pctl · Financials
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): mixed.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme capital-markets/rates.neutral-1.3%sector vs S&P 500, 60d
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
AI cycle regime · market-wide
2-axis classifierLong-term · 1–3 yr
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-07-06
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$36.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$165.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $443.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-07-06
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · confidence_labelsmall change
Confidence changed from 'low' to 'medium'.
- label change · signal_labelsmall change
Signal changed from 'None' to 'mixed'.
No, our read on the company is unchanged. There are no new strengths or weaknesses identified. The confidence level changed from low to medium. The signal shifted from none to mixed.
as of 2026-07-06
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceWeeksactive 24d
Watch for FOMC decisions that affect interest rates.
Why it matters: Changes in interest rates can affect loan demand and profitability for banks. This is crucial for Hoyne Bancorp's performance.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates during the June 17 meeting.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them during the June 17 meeting.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HYNE yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
- Watch for consumer spending trends in retail sales data
- Watch for FOMC decisions that affect interest rates.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting HYNE and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit HYNE and other Financials names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.63%, that would weigh on HYNE and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping HYNE and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.7% (say, below 2%), it hits HYNE and other Financials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-2413d agoItem 4.01
Changes in Registrant's Certifying Accountant. (a) Dismissal of Independent Registered Public Accounting Firm On June 22, 2026, the Audit Committee (the “Audit Committee”) of the Board of Directors of Hoyne Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) dismissed Wipfli LLP (“Wipfli”) as the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm, effective immediately. Wipfli performed audits of the financial statements of the Company for the year ended December 31, 2025, and of the financial statements of H…
Legal / regulatorynegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not enough history for a weekly changelatest as of 2026-07-06
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.