Hexcel (HXL)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-09
$90.42-0.94%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — EPS between $2.1 and $2.3 in 2026: FY26 EPS guidance $2.30-$2.40 vs target $2.10-$2.30.
Hexcel makes strong materials for aerospace and defense. Sales should grow about 8% in 2026. Free cash flow is expected near $195 million. Profit per share should be about $2.2 in 2026.
If aerospace demand falls, sales could drop below $1.9 billion. Profit per share might fall under $1.7. Free cash flow could weaken below $190 million.
The price is about 17% above our fair value near $86. Analysts expect about 13% revenue growth. Our fair value is below the Street median by 9%.
Breaks if: Capital spending exceeds $100 million in FY26
Breaks if: EPS falls below $1.7 in FY26
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $190 million in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue growth and operating income enhancement. The current thesis state is intact, but it is under pressure from sector dynamics.
The valuation is considered expensive compared to peers, with a premium of 1.42. The market seems to have priced in a justified level of expectations, but there is a negative expectations gap.
Management is on track with its priorities, showing robust earnings quality and strong recent financial performance. However, cash flow management is mixed, and there is a moderate risk of missing future guidance.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX. If these companies continue to perform well, it may support HXL. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could impact HXL's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. Additionally, revenue growth initiatives are gaining traction. There are no current threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $1.88 billion in FY26
Overall, HXL's fundamentals are strong, but the investment outlook is sensitive to sector performance. Not investment advice.