H2O America (HTO)

NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated WaterSnapshot 2026-10-23

$58.90+0.41%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge H2O America’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	218.2M
EPS	—	0.525
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	861.36M
EPS	$3.08–$3.18non-GAAP	2.833
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	919.32M
EPS	—	2.838

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Manage CAPEX near $2B in 2026	A supporting condition in H2O America's published investment case. The stated target is CAPEX <= $2B in FY26.	Intact	CAPEX exceeds $2B in FY26	Capital expenditures: $123.272M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: CAPEX <= $2B in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 2026123,272,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain EPS guidance of $3.08-$3.18 for 2026	It aims for EPS near $3.13 in 2026.	Intact	EPS falls below $3.08 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.62 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.08 EPS for FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 20260.62 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: fb53d3ac-e086-4635-be8a-530b38a44a0c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context EPS guidance of $3.08-$3.18 for 2026 was stated in 3 consecutive quarters from 2025-Q4 through 2026-Q2. Actual diluted EPS for first half 2026 was $1.12, compared to $1.20 in first half 2025, reflecting timing and share count effects. Management is reiterating guidance excluding acquisition impacts. The trajectory is consistent with management's stated guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Complete $540M Quadvest acquisition in 2H 2026	A supporting condition in H2O America's published investment case. The stated target is Complete acquisition by end of 2026.	Improving	Acquisition not completed by end of 2026	Qualitative: Approval received 2026-08-17; target end-2026 H2O America received approval to acquire Quadvest assets on 2026-08-17, advancing the 2026 completion target. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 quarters including the completion announcement in 2026-Q4. Management anticipated closing the $540 million Quadvest acquisition in late 2026, which was completed on Oct 1, 2026. Quadvest's active connections grew 10% (5,400 connections) in the first half of 2026, supporting the strategic expansion of Texas operations. The trajectory is delivering as planned. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Sustain revenue growth near 9% YoY	A primary condition in H2O America's published investment case. The stated target is >= 8% YoY revenue growth next 4 quarters.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 8% next 4 quarters	Revenue growth: 6.16% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 8% YoY revenue growth next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 20266.163275 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: fb53d3ac-e086-4635-be8a-530b38a44a0c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$2.82 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.82	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-25	$2.82	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-26	$2.75	$914,606,060	6 / 6
2026-07-27	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-28	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-29	$2.85	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-30	$2.75	$914,606,060	6 / 6
2026-07-31	$2.74	$916,422,730	6 / 6
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-02	$2.74	$916,422,730	6 / 6
2026-08-03	$2.74	$916,422,730	6 / 6
2026-08-04	$2.74	$916,422,730	6 / 6
2026-08-05	$2.74	$916,422,730	6 / 6
2026-08-06	$2.74	$916,422,730	6 / 6
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-09	$2.73	$916,422,730	6 / 6
2026-08-10	$2.73	$916,422,730	6 / 6
2026-08-12	$2.73	$916,422,730	6 / 6
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-20	$2.79	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-21	$2.77	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	5	2
2026-06-01	5	2
2026-07-01	5	2
2026-08-01	5	2
2026-09-01	5	2
2026-10-01	5	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BTIGOct 20 · prior Jul 29

$70.00 → $65.00-7.1%

BarclaysOct 19 · prior Sep 30

$66.00 → $65.00-1.5%

$0$38.50$77.00

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Manage CAPEX near $2B in 2026Capital expenditures: $123.272M
Maintain EPS guidance of $3.08-$3.18 for 2026Diluted EPS: $0.62 per share
Sustain revenue growth near 9% YoYRevenue growth: 6.16%

Next proof point

Oct 26, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-14.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

H2O America outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

HTO is a regulated utility with a growth angle from expanding its Texas operations. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state, with medium confidence: the Quadvest acquisition is complete, but recent financial performance has lagged its industry cohort.

What's priced into H2O America

The evidence describes HTO as cheap versus peers, with valuation otherwise neutral and low signs of fragility. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting the market’s assumptions are somewhat ahead of the model’s view; evidence on the precise expectations is limited.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the next year, Quadvest’s completed acquisition and planned infrastructure spending support expansion, while first-half diluted EPS was lower than a year earlier and management’s guidance is reiterated excluding acquisition impacts. Near-term miss risk is rated low, but recent misses, peer weakness, and a sector headwind make the next guidance update important.

What H2O America hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on management integrating Quadvest and delivering on its 2026 investment and earnings plans. A guidance cut would weaken the setup, while lower interest rates or continued earnings strength among sector peers could provide support.