Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH)

NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$36.36-2.47%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Hilltop Holdings Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	316.37M
EPS	—	0.643
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.25B
EPS	—	2.463
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.27B
EPS	—	2.438

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain dividend payout at $0.20 per share	Hilltop Holdings keeps paying and slightly raising dividends, now $0.20 per share.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.20 in any quarter of 2026	Dividend per share: $0.22 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.20 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Oct 23, 20260.22 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0d732346-24da-4bbb-b133-05f78c5848a6. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS at or above $0.64 per share in Q4 2026	Earnings per share beat estimates by 30.6% in Q1 2026.	Intact	EPS falls below $0.64 in Q4 2026	Diluted EPS: $0.44 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.64 per share. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Source published Oct 23, 20260.44 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0d732346-24da-4bbb-b133-05f78c5848a6. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Improve cash flow from operations to positive territory	A primary condition in Hilltop Holdings Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is > 0 USD.	Under Pressure	cash flow remains negative through 2026-Q4	Cash from operations: $-157.462M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: > 0 USD. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 24, 2026-157,462,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue at or above $294 million in Q4 2026	A primary condition in Hilltop Holdings Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $294 million.	Under Pressure	revenue falls below $294 million in Q4 2026	Revenue: $191.821M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $294 million. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Source published Oct 23, 2026191,821,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0d732346-24da-4bbb-b133-05f78c5848a6. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Continue active share buybacks, at least $47.5 million in Q1 2026	A supporting condition in Hilltop Holdings Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $47 million per quarter.	Intact	quarterly share repurchases fall below $40 million in 2026	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	0
2026-06-01	4	0
2026-07-01	4	0
2026-08-01	4	0
2026-09-01	4	0
2026-10-01	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain dividend payout at $0.20 per shareDividend per share: $0.22 per share
EPS at or above $0.64 per share in Q4 2026Diluted EPS: $0.44 per share
Improve cash flow from operations to positive territoryPublished status: Under Pressure
Revenue at or above $294 million in Q4 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Continue active share buybacks, at least $47.5 million in Q1 2026Required source inputs unavailable

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-13.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Hilltop Holdings Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

HTH is a regional bank with a moderate-risk, earnings-led multi-year view. Its thesis state is intact, and the recent signal improved from mixed to mildly favorable after two reported earnings beats.

What's priced into Hilltop Holdings Inc.

The valuation evidence says HTH is cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is slightly negative, meaning expectations are somewhat cautious. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, so the snapshot does not point to unusually stretched expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, loan and deposit growth support the business: Q3 2026 loans rose 6.5% year over year and deposits rose 3.7%, with management projecting 7% to 8% average loan growth for 2026. Expenses were lower than a year earlier, but capital returned to stockholders was lower in Q3 than in Q2; the sector backdrop is a headwind, and the snapshot flags a 21% miss probability despite recent earnings beats.

What Hilltop Holdings Inc. hinges on

A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while continued loan growth and expense control would support the multi-year thesis. Sector momentum may help if HDB, IBN, and USB continue to report strong earnings and guidance, but the snapshot also warns that rate cuts could weigh on financial stocks.