Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - ConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$38.34-0.67%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - ConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Revenue at or above $294 million in Q4 2026: FY26 rev guidance $315.8M vs Q4 target $294M.
Hilltop Holdings keeps paying and slightly raising dividends, now $0.20 per share. The company actively buys back shares, spending $47.5 million in Q1 2026. Earnings per share beat estimates by 30.6% in Q1 2026. These show steady shareholder returns and some earnings strength.
Cash flow from operations is negative $127.3 million in Q1 2026, showing weak financial stability. Revenue fell 11.7% year-over-year in Q1 2026. A director sold $380,000 in stock, signaling possible lack of confidence.
The price is about 9% above our fair value near $35. Analysts expect 42% revenue growth, which is optimistic given recent declines. Our view is more cautious on revenue and cash flow.
Breaks if: dividend per share falls below $0.20 in any quarter of 2026
Breaks if: EPS falls below $0.64 in Q4 2026
Breaks if: cash flow remains negative through 2026-Q4
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable financial institution with a focus on maintaining and growing its core loan portfolio and returning capital to shareholders. The current thesis state is cautious, with recent performance being neutral and dependent on sector trends.
The market seems to have priced in a low level of fragility, indicating that expectations are relatively justified compared to peers. HTH is viewed as cheap against its industry, with a notable expectations gap suggesting that the market may not fully reflect its potential.
Management is on track with its priorities, particularly in loan and deposit growth, and returning capital to shareholders. However, recent changes indicate a decline in company quality, and while the near-term risk of missing earnings is low, past erratic performance raises some caution.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats impacting the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: revenue falls below $294 million in Q4 2026
Breaks if: quarterly share repurchases fall below $40 million in 2026
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of the Financials sector, particularly the actions of sector bellwether RILY. Any cuts in guidance or negative earnings from RILY could negatively impact HTH, while continued strong performance from RILY could provide a favorable backdrop.
Overall, HTH's stability is supported by solid management execution, but its future performance is closely tied to sector dynamics. Not investment advice.