HSBC HOLDINGS PLC (HSBC)

NYSEFinancialsBanks - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-10-16

$94.57+0.03%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 16, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge HSBC HOLDINGS PLC’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
strategic focus on core markets including possible sale of Turkish business	The bank is focusing on core markets by reviewing non-core assets like its Turkish business.	Improving	failure to progress on core market focus or asset sales	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
earnings per share growth to at least $9.89 in FY27	Analysts expect earnings per share to grow from $8.8 in 2026 to $9.89 in 2027.	Broken	EPS falls below $8.8 in FY26 or fails to reach $9.89 in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
strengthen investment banking in Middle East and Europe	HSBC is strengthening its investment banking in the Middle East and restricting risky loans.	Intact	decline in European investment banking fees below 2021 first half levels	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
restrict loans to risky private credit funds	HSBC is strengthening its investment banking in the Middle East and restricting risky loans.	Intact	loosening of loan restrictions to risky credit funds	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$78.86B

$78.33B → $78.86B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$78,325,516,410	1 / 12
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$77,463,355,514	2 / 7
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$78,396,242,030	1 / 12
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$77,678,283,707	2 / 7
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$78,396,258,890	1 / 12
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$78,396,258,890	1 / 12
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$78,396,258,890	1 / 12
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$78,575,736,970	1 / 11
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$77,739,228,151	2 / 7
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$78,575,736,970	1 / 11
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$77,739,228,151	2 / 7
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$78,575,736,970	1 / 11
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$78,734,776,250	1 / 11
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$78,734,776,250	1 / 11
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$78,352,059,599	2 / 7
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$79,483,579,420	2 / 11
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$79,483,579,420	2 / 11
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$79,483,579,420	2 / 11
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$79,483,579,420	2 / 11
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$78,352,059,599	2 / 7
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$78,352,059,599	2 / 7
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$78,352,059,599	3 / 7
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$78,352,059,599	3 / 7
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$78,352,059,599	3 / 7
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$78,352,059,599	3 / 7
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$78,352,059,599	3 / 7
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$78,459,298,399	2 / 7
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$78,459,298,399	2 / 7
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$78,459,298,399	2 / 7
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$78,459,298,399	2 / 7
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$78,459,298,399	2 / 7
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$78,459,298,399	2 / 7
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$78,459,298,399	2 / 7
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$78,459,298,399	2 / 7
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$78,459,298,399	2 / 7
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$78,459,298,399	2 / 7
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$78,459,298,399	2 / 7
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$78,459,298,399	2 / 7
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$78,459,298,399	2 / 7
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$78,459,298,399	2 / 7
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$78,459,298,399	2 / 7
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$78,459,298,399	2 / 7
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$78,459,298,399	2 / 7
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$78,459,298,399	2 / 7
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$78,459,298,399	2 / 7
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$78,459,298,399	2 / 7
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$78,459,298,399	2 / 7
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$78,459,298,399	2 / 7
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$78,459,298,399	2 / 7
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$78,459,298,399	2 / 7
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$78,459,298,399	2 / 7
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$78,459,298,399	2 / 7
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$78,620,559,599	2 / 7
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$78,620,559,599	2 / 7
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$78,620,559,599	2 / 7
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$78,620,559,599	2 / 7
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$78,620,559,599	2 / 7
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$78,620,559,599	2 / 7
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$78,620,559,599	2 / 7
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$78,620,559,599	2 / 7
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$78,620,559,599	2 / 7
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$78,620,559,599	2 / 7
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$78,620,559,599	2 / 7
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$78,620,559,599	2 / 7
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$78,620,559,599	2 / 7
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$78,620,559,599	2 / 7
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$78,711,113,042	2 / 7
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$78,711,113,042	2 / 7
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$78,711,113,042	2 / 7
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$78,711,113,042	2 / 7
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$78,711,113,042	2 / 7
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$78,711,113,042	2 / 7
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$78,711,113,042	2 / 7
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$78,772,113,042	2 / 7
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$78,772,113,042	2 / 7
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$78,772,113,042	2 / 7
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$78,779,821,775	2 / 7
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$78,779,821,775	2 / 7
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$78,802,323,275	2 / 7
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$78,802,323,275	2 / 7
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$78,862,020,451	2 / 7
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$78,862,020,451	2 / 7
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$78,862,020,451	2 / 7
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$78,861,233,562	2 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	1	2	0
2026-06-01	2	2	0
2026-07-01	1	2	0
2026-08-01	1	2	1
2026-09-01	1	1	1
2026-10-01	1	1	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 17–Oct 16 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 17, 2026–Oct 16, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

strategic focus on core markets including possible sale of Turkish businessQualitative condition
earnings per share growth to at least $9.89 in FY27Published status: Broken
strengthen investment banking in Middle East and EuropeDirect metric needs a verified mapping
restrict loans to risky private credit fundsQualitative condition

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-16.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

HSBC HOLDINGS PLC outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a moderate-risk financial sector play with a focus on HSBC's performance amidst sector headwinds. The current thesis state is insufficient due to a lack of recent financial performance history.

What's priced into HSBC HOLDINGS PLC

The market does not currently reflect significant fragility in HSBC, as no fragility gates have been triggered. However, the overall sentiment is cautious given the recent downturn in price reaction.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals may remain under pressure due to the recent earnings miss and the potential for further challenges in the financial sector. The near-term risk of missing expectations is low, but past performance raises concerns.

What HSBC HOLDINGS PLC hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like JPM, BAC, and WFC. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a lift to HSBC; conversely, any negative guidance from them could weigh heavily on HSBC's prospects.