Hesai Group (HSAI)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$13.13+8.15%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Hesai Group’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.94 → 0.94 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.48B
EPS	—	1.298
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	4.24B
EPS	—	0.395
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	5.94B
EPS	—	0.937

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Earnings per share growth	A primary condition in Hesai Group's published investment case. The stated target is >= $3.93 EPS in FY26 and >= $6.14 EPS in FY27.	Broken	EPS falls below $3.5 in FY26 or below $5.5 in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Strategic partnerships and market share	The company has strategic partnerships boosting market position.	Intact	Loss of key partnerships or market share decline	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Hesai Group revenue growth	Hesai Group leads in LiDAR technology with strong revenue growth.	Intact	revenue falls below $4.0B in FY26	Revenue: CNY 1.541B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $4.36B revenue in FY26. Target and observation currencies differ. Source published Aug 18, 20261,541,382,000 CNY · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.94

$6.11 → $0.94 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.94B

$6.07B → $5.94B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.11	$6,072,431,315	9 / 17
2026-07-25	$6.11	$6,072,431,315	9 / 17
2026-07-26	$6.11	$6,072,431,315	9 / 17
2026-07-27	$6.11	$6,072,431,315	9 / 17
2026-07-28	$6.10	$6,070,954,266	9 / 17
2026-07-29	$6.10	$6,070,954,266	9 / 17
2026-07-30	$6.08	$6,129,946,640	11 / 24
2026-07-31	$6.08	$6,129,946,640	11 / 24
2026-08-01	$6.11	$6,073,832,860	9 / 16
2026-08-02	$6.11	$6,073,832,860	9 / 16
2026-08-03	$6.09	$6,087,066,813	9 / 16
2026-08-04	$6.09	$6,087,066,813	9 / 16
2026-08-05	$6.03	$6,134,908,230	11 / 24
2026-08-06	$6.09	$6,087,066,813	9 / 16
2026-08-07	$6.09	$6,087,066,813	9 / 16
2026-08-08	$6.03	$6,134,908,230	11 / 24
2026-08-09	$6.03	$6,134,908,230	11 / 24
2026-08-10	$6.03	$6,134,908,230	11 / 24
2026-08-12	$6.09	$6,087,066,813	9 / 16
2026-08-13	$6.09	$6,087,066,813	9 / 16
2026-08-14	$6.09	$6,087,066,813	9 / 16
2026-08-15	$6.09	$6,087,066,813	9 / 16
2026-08-16	$6.09	$6,087,066,813	9 / 16
2026-08-17	$6.09	$6,087,066,813	9 / 16
2026-08-18	$6.09	$6,087,066,813	9 / 16
2026-08-19	$6.09	$6,087,066,813	9 / 16
2026-08-20	$6.13	$6,107,864,165	8 / 17
2026-08-21	$6.11	$6,102,133,380	8 / 17
2026-08-22	$6.18	$6,118,857,654	8 / 17
2026-08-23	$6.18	$6,118,857,654	7 / 17
2026-08-24	$6.18	$6,121,807,747	7 / 17
2026-08-25	$5.98	$6,102,383,769	7 / 17
2026-08-26	$5.98	$6,101,973,221	7 / 17
2026-08-27	$5.98	$6,101,973,221	7 / 17
2026-08-28	$5.98	$6,101,973,221	7 / 17
2026-08-29	$0.95	$6,084,919,747	7 / 17
2026-08-30	$0.95	$6,084,913,489	7 / 17
2026-08-31	$0.95	$6,084,913,489	7 / 17
2026-09-01	$0.95	$6,097,146,636	6 / 17
2026-09-02	$0.95	$6,106,593,861	6 / 17
2026-09-03	$0.95	$6,107,004,609	6 / 17
2026-09-04	$0.95	$6,107,004,609	6 / 17
2026-09-05	$0.95	$6,107,004,609	6 / 17
2026-09-06	$0.95	$6,107,004,609	6 / 17
2026-09-07	$0.95	$6,107,004,609	6 / 17
2026-09-08	$0.95	$6,114,808,825	6 / 17
2026-09-09	$0.95	$6,116,041,070	6 / 17
2026-09-10	$0.95	$6,116,862,566	6 / 17
2026-09-11	$0.95	$6,118,094,811	6 / 17
2026-09-12	$0.95	$6,123,434,538	6 / 17
2026-09-13	$0.95	$6,123,434,538	6 / 17
2026-09-14	$0.95	$6,123,434,538	6 / 17
2026-09-15	$0.95	$6,118,505,559	6 / 17
2026-09-16	$0.95	$6,117,684,063	6 / 17
2026-09-17	$0.95	$6,115,219,573	6 / 17
2026-09-18	$0.95	$6,115,219,573	6 / 17
2026-09-19	$0.95	$6,115,219,573	6 / 17
2026-09-20	$0.95	$6,119,737,804	6 / 17
2026-09-21	$0.94	$6,047,685,970	6 / 17
2026-09-22	$0.94	$6,050,705,658	6 / 17
2026-09-23	$0.94	$6,049,512,892	6 / 17
2026-09-24	$0.94	$6,038,754,042	6 / 17
2026-09-25	$0.94	$6,039,001,760	6 / 17
2026-09-26	$0.94	$6,043,887,550	6 / 17
2026-09-27	$0.94	$6,043,887,550	6 / 17
2026-09-28	$0.94	$6,050,088,331	6 / 17
2026-09-29	$0.94	$6,039,495,320	6 / 17
2026-09-30	$0.94	$6,042,788,138	6 / 17
2026-10-01	$0.94	$6,050,450,685	6 / 17
2026-10-02	$0.94	$6,041,661,300	6 / 17
2026-10-03	$0.94	$6,042,616,589	6 / 17
2026-10-04	$0.94	$6,042,616,589	6 / 17
2026-10-05	$0.94	$6,042,592,556	6 / 17
2026-10-06	$0.94	$6,042,592,556	6 / 17
2026-10-07	$0.94	$6,049,895,764	6 / 17
2026-10-08	$0.94	$6,048,678,563	6 / 17
2026-10-09	$0.94	$6,047,461,361	6 / 16
2026-10-10	$0.94	$6,047,461,361	6 / 16
2026-10-11	$0.94	$6,047,055,628	6 / 16
2026-10-12	$0.94	$6,046,177,796	6 / 16
2026-10-13	$0.94	$6,035,661,986	6 / 16
2026-10-14	$0.94	$6,039,802,762	6 / 16
2026-10-15	$0.94	$6,039,772,733	6 / 16
2026-10-16	$0.94	$6,040,133,080	6 / 16
2026-10-17	$0.94	$6,040,133,080	6 / 16
2026-10-18	$0.94	$6,041,735,976	6 / 16
2026-10-19	$0.94	$6,041,735,976	6 / 16
2026-10-20	$0.94	$6,046,992,472	6 / 16
2026-10-21	$0.94	$6,046,992,472	6 / 16
2026-10-22	$0.94	$6,000,596,568	6 / 16
2026-10-23	$0.94	$5,959,687,428	6 / 16
2026-10-24	$0.94	$5,942,003,299	6 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	22	0	0
2026-06-01	22	0	0
2026-07-01	21	0	0
2026-08-01	20	0	0
2026-09-01	20	0	0
2026-10-01	20	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Earnings per share growthPublished status: Broken
Strategic partnerships and market shareQualitative condition
Hesai Group revenue growthRevenue: CNY 1.541B

Next proof point

Nov 10, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-57.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Hesai Group outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk, growth-sensitive business exposure, but the evidence is too thin to classify it confidently as a durable compounder or another investment type. The current long-term thesis is insufficiently established because recent financial-performance history is limited.

What's priced into Hesai Group

The evidence snapshot provides no valuation or expectations data, so it does not show whether HSAI is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers, or what the market already assumes. Valuation and the expectations gap remain unclear.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, earnings are uncertain: HSAI missed its most recent quarter and has had erratic recent earnings surprises. The risk label recently rose from elevated to high, while the available evidence is not enough to establish a multi-year fundamental trend.

What Hesai Group hinges on

Near term, sector bellwethers GPC, BWA, and APTV may offer signals: continued earnings strength and higher guidance could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it. Over the next one to three years, a material slowdown in GDP growth from 2.2% to below 2% is a stated risk because the sector is growth-sensitive.