HealthEquity (HQY)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$103.97+2.97%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge HealthEquity’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.50 → 5.50 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q3
Revenue	—	347.19M
EPS	—	1.15
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	$1.41B–$1.42B	1.42B
EPS	—	4.724
EBITDA	$628M–$636Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.53B
EPS	—	5.501

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve Adjusted EBITDA of $625M-$633M for FY 2027	Profit margins stay strong with adjusted EBITDA near $630 million.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $600M in FY 2027	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA increased from $566 million in fiscal 2026 to a raised guidance range of $625 million to $633 million for fiscal 2027. Management consistently raised this target, indicating delivery and positive momentum. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Increase EPS to $2.88-$2.95 for FY 2027	A primary condition in HealthEquity's published investment case. The stated target is ~$2.92.	Intact	EPS falls below $2.70 in FY 2027	Diluted EPS: $0.78 per share FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.92. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 27, 20260.78 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a7573c28-d249-4c1b-ac92-535224690d68. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Diluted EPS increased from $2.46 in fiscal 2026 to a raised guidance range of $2.88 to $2.95 for fiscal 2027. Management has consistently raised EPS outlook, showing delivery and positive earnings growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Increase revenue to $1.41B-$1.42B for FY 2027	A primary condition in HealthEquity's published investment case. The stated target is ~$1.415B.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1.3B in FY 2027	Revenue: $350.732M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.415B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 27, 2026350,732,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a7573c28-d249-4c1b-ac92-535224690d68. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $1.307 billion in fiscal 2026 to $1.411-$1.421 billion expected in fiscal 2027. Management raised and reaffirmed this revenue guidance each quarter, showing delivery and consistent upward trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$5.50

$5.45 → $5.50 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$1.53B

$1.52B → $1.53B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.45	$1,520,401,798	10 / 11
2026-07-25	$5.45	$1,520,401,798	10 / 11
2026-07-26	$5.45	$1,520,401,798	10 / 11
2026-07-27	$5.45	$1,520,401,798	10 / 11
2026-07-28	$5.45	$1,520,401,798	10 / 11
2026-07-29	$5.45	$1,520,401,798	10 / 11
2026-07-30	$5.45	$1,520,401,798	10 / 11
2026-07-31	$5.45	$1,520,401,798	10 / 11
2026-08-01	$5.45	$1,520,401,798	10 / 11
2026-08-02	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-03	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-04	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-05	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-06	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-07	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-08	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-09	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-10	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-12	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-13	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-14	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-15	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-16	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-17	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-18	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-19	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-20	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-21	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-22	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-23	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-24	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-25	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-26	$5.45	$1,520,352,808	10 / 11
2026-08-27	$5.45	$1,520,352,808	10 / 11
2026-08-28	$5.47	$1,524,286,677	10 / 11
2026-08-29	$5.49	$1,524,584,533	9 / 10
2026-08-30	$5.49	$1,525,432,533	9 / 10
2026-08-31	$5.49	$1,525,432,533	9 / 10
2026-09-01	$5.49	$1,525,432,533	10 / 10
2026-09-02	$5.49	$1,525,432,533	10 / 11
2026-09-03	$5.49	$1,525,432,533	10 / 11
2026-09-04	$5.49	$1,526,203,176	10 / 11
2026-09-05	$5.49	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-06	$5.49	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-07	$5.49	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-08	$5.49	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-09	$5.49	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-10	$5.50	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-11	$5.50	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-12	$5.50	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-13	$5.50	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-14	$5.50	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-15	$5.50	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-16	$5.50	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-17	$5.50	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-18	$5.50	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-19	$5.50	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-20	$5.50	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-21	$5.50	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-22	$5.50	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-23	$5.50	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-24	$5.50	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-25	$5.50	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-26	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-09-27	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-09-28	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-09-29	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-09-30	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-01	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-02	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-03	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-04	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-05	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-06	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-07	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-08	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-09	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-10	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-11	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-12	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-13	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-14	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-15	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-16	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-17	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-18	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-19	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-20	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-21	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-22	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-23	$5.50	$1,525,510,955	10 / 11
2026-10-24	$5.50	$1,525,510,955	10 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Sell*
2026-05-01	15	1
2026-06-01	15	1
2026-07-01	15	1
2026-08-01	15	0
2026-09-01	15	0
2026-10-01	15	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BMO CapitalOct 21

$125.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$68.75$137.50

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve Adjusted EBITDA of $625M-$633M for FY 2027Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Increase EPS to $2.88-$2.95 for FY 2027Diluted EPS: $0.78 per share
Increase revenue to $1.41B-$1.42B for FY 2027Revenue: $350.732M

Next proof point

Dec 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-30.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

HealthEquity outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

HQY is a growth-oriented business with robust earnings quality and a supportive sector backdrop. Its long-term thesis is intact, though the overall signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable.

What's priced into HealthEquity

Valuation is neutral and broadly aligned with peers, with no clear expectations gap in either direction. The priced-in assessment is justified, and the evidence shows low valuation fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management’s fiscal 2027 revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and diluted EPS goals are on track, following repeated guidance increases and recent earnings beats. The main caution is that a guidance reversal could damage credibility, while weaker employment data could increase cyclical pressure.

What HealthEquity hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on management delivering its fiscal 2027 goals without reversing its raised guidance. Near term, weaker jobs data is a risk, while continued strong results and guidance from healthcare peers could support the sector backdrop.