Robinhood Markets (HOOD)

NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$98.87-4.92%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Robinhood Markets’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+4.8%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.89 → 3.03 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 20 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 18 to 20; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Share repurchases continue steadily	A supporting condition in Robinhood Markets's published investment case. The stated target is >=$1.2 billion share repurchases.	Intact	Share repurchases fall below $800 million in next two quarters	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Share repurchases have increased steadily from $703 million in 2025-Q2 to $1.3 billion in 2026-Q2, representing 27 million shares repurchased. Management has consistently communicated the share repurchase program and is delivering on capital return. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Robinhood Gold subscribers grow steadily	Gold subscribers rose 65% in 15 months.	Broken	Gold subscribers fall below 3.5 million next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Robinhood Gold Subscribers grew steadily from 3.2 million in 2025-Q1 to 4.8 million in 2026-Q2, a 50% increase. Management consistently highlights subscriber growth as a key metric, and the data shows delivering on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Operating expenses managed with discipline	A primary condition in Robinhood Markets's published investment case. The stated target is Operating expenses <= $2.825 billion.	Intact	Operating expenses exceed $2.9 billion in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Management lowered the 2026 Adjusted Operating Expenses and SBC outlook from $2.7-$2.825 billion to $2.675-$2.775 billion to reflect efficiencies. Operating expenses increased 33% year-over-year to $734 million in 2026-Q2, reflecting investments and restructuring charges. The trajectory shows disciplined cost management with ongoing investments. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Revenue grows about 22% per year	Robinhood grows revenue about 22% a year.	Improving	YoY revenue growth falls below 15% next year	Revenue growth: 32.25% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=22% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202632.254803 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3e0ab695-ce5f-4f01-b105-2015e8f4b7b8. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $989 million in 2025-Q2 to $1.31 billion in 2026-Q2 (+32%). Robinhood Gold Subscribers grew from 3.5 million to 4.8 million (+39%). Management consistently emphasizes product velocity and innovation, and the financials show delivering growth and diversification. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.03

$2.70 → $3.03 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$6.89B

$6.38B → $6.89B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.70	$6,377,398,302	17 / 19
2026-07-25	$2.70	$6,377,398,302	17 / 19
2026-07-26	$2.63	$6,354,474,820	20 / 24
2026-07-27	$2.71	$6,388,002,898	16 / 19
2026-07-28	$2.71	$6,388,002,898	16 / 19
2026-07-29	$2.64	$6,371,029,860	20 / 24
2026-07-30	$2.64	$6,371,029,860	20 / 24
2026-07-31	$2.65	$6,449,015,000	19 / 24
2026-08-01	$2.73	$6,443,840,069	16 / 19
2026-08-02	$2.69	$6,472,359,170	20 / 24
2026-08-03	$2.75	$6,487,349,236	16 / 19
2026-08-04	$2.69	$6,472,359,170	20 / 24
2026-08-05	$2.69	$6,472,359,170	20 / 24
2026-08-06	$2.69	$6,472,359,170	20 / 24
2026-08-07	$2.75	$6,487,349,236	16 / 19
2026-08-08	$2.70	$6,472,360,880	20 / 24
2026-08-09	$2.70	$6,472,360,880	20 / 24
2026-08-10	$2.70	$6,472,360,880	20 / 24
2026-08-12	$2.75	$6,487,349,236	16 / 19
2026-08-13	$2.70	$6,472,360,880	20 / 24
2026-08-14	$2.75	$6,487,349,236	16 / 19
2026-08-15	$2.75	$6,487,349,236	16 / 19
2026-08-16	$2.75	$6,487,349,236	16 / 19
2026-08-17	$2.75	$6,487,349,236	16 / 19
2026-08-18	$2.75	$6,487,349,236	16 / 19
2026-08-19	$2.75	$6,487,349,236	16 / 19
2026-08-20	$2.80	$6,541,227,787	16 / 19
2026-08-21	$2.80	$6,541,227,787	16 / 19
2026-08-22	$2.80	$6,541,211,319	16 / 19
2026-08-23	$2.80	$6,541,211,319	16 / 19
2026-08-24	$2.80	$6,541,211,319	16 / 19
2026-08-25	$2.80	$6,544,306,682	16 / 19
2026-08-26	$2.80	$6,544,306,682	16 / 19
2026-08-27	$2.80	$6,544,306,682	16 / 19
2026-08-28	$2.80	$6,544,306,682	16 / 19
2026-08-29	$2.81	$6,546,075,957	16 / 19
2026-08-30	$2.81	$6,546,075,957	16 / 19
2026-08-31	$2.81	$6,546,075,957	16 / 19
2026-09-01	$2.81	$6,546,075,957	16 / 19
2026-09-02	$2.82	$6,578,156,281	16 / 19
2026-09-03	$2.82	$6,581,149,770	16 / 19
2026-09-04	$2.83	$6,591,491,436	17 / 20
2026-09-05	$2.86	$6,626,943,779	17 / 20
2026-09-06	$2.86	$6,626,943,779	17 / 20
2026-09-07	$2.86	$6,626,943,779	17 / 20
2026-09-08	$2.86	$6,626,943,779	17 / 20
2026-09-09	$2.88	$6,665,802,913	17 / 20
2026-09-10	$2.88	$6,675,572,144	18 / 20
2026-09-11	$2.88	$6,675,572,144	18 / 20
2026-09-12	$2.89	$6,690,346,029	18 / 20
2026-09-13	$2.89	$6,690,346,029	18 / 20
2026-09-14	$2.89	$6,690,346,029	18 / 20
2026-09-15	$2.89	$6,691,038,336	18 / 20
2026-09-16	$2.89	$6,691,038,336	18 / 20
2026-09-17	$2.89	$6,691,038,336	18 / 20
2026-09-18	$2.89	$6,691,038,336	18 / 20
2026-09-19	$2.89	$6,691,038,336	18 / 20
2026-09-20	$2.89	$6,691,038,336	18 / 20
2026-09-21	$2.89	$6,691,038,336	18 / 20
2026-09-22	$2.89	$6,691,038,336	18 / 20
2026-09-23	$2.90	$6,711,615,259	18 / 20
2026-09-24	$2.90	$6,711,615,259	18 / 20
2026-09-25	$2.91	$6,724,522,038	18 / 20
2026-09-26	$2.91	$6,724,522,038	18 / 20
2026-09-27	$2.91	$6,724,522,038	18 / 20
2026-09-28	$2.91	$6,724,522,038	18 / 20
2026-09-29	$2.91	$6,731,667,281	18 / 20
2026-09-30	$2.93	$6,764,826,523	18 / 20
2026-10-01	$2.93	$6,769,749,600	18 / 20
2026-10-02	$2.93	$6,762,211,138	18 / 19
2026-10-03	$2.95	$6,794,410,726	18 / 21
2026-10-04	$2.95	$6,794,410,726	18 / 21
2026-10-05	$2.95	$6,794,410,726	18 / 21
2026-10-06	$2.96	$6,829,156,411	18 / 21
2026-10-07	$2.97	$6,843,541,627	18 / 21
2026-10-08	$2.97	$6,843,688,182	19 / 20
2026-10-09	$2.99	$6,843,688,182	19 / 20
2026-10-10	$2.99	$6,843,688,182	19 / 20
2026-10-11	$3.02	$6,863,884,001	19 / 20
2026-10-12	$3.02	$6,863,884,001	19 / 20
2026-10-13	$3.01	$6,869,638,144	19 / 20
2026-10-14	$3.03	$6,893,107,640	20 / 21
2026-10-15	$3.03	$6,894,515,808	20 / 21

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	20	5	4
2026-06-01	21	5	4
2026-07-01	22	4	3
2026-08-01	22	4	3
2026-09-01	24	4	2
2026-10-01	25	4	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 25 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades10 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 10 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 14 · prior Oct 1

$125.00 → $120.00-4.0%

Truist FinancialOct 13

$134.00New observation · no comparable prior

Evercore ISIOct 12

$130.00New observation · no comparable prior

Morgan StanleyOct 9 · prior Sep 1

$150.00 → $160.00+6.7%

BarclaysOct 7 · prior Jul 30

$105.00 → $132.00+25.7%

Loop Capital MarketsOct 5 · prior Oct 1

$170.00 → $156.00-8.2%

Summit Redstone PartnersSep 30

$150.00New observation · no comparable prior

KeyBancSep 30 · prior Jul 22

$125.00 → $140.00+12.0%

Goldman SachsSep 30 · prior Sep 8

$142.00 → $145.00+2.1%

Deutsche BankSep 29 · prior Sep 14

$138.00 → $134.00-2.9%

BTIGSep 28 · prior Jun 26

$125.00 → $135.00+8.0%

$0$93.50$187.00

5 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Share repurchases continue steadilyRequired source inputs unavailable
Robinhood Gold subscribers grow steadilyPublished status: Broken
Operating expenses managed with disciplineDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue grows about 22% per yearRevenue growth: 32.25%

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-55.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Robinhood Markets outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. The current thesis state is intact, supported by robust earnings quality and strong recent financial performance, despite some volatility in management and high risk factors.

What's priced into Robinhood Markets

The market seems to assume that HOOD is relatively expensive compared to its peers, with a premium valuation. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market may be cautiously optimistic about future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with priorities like accelerating product innovation and expanding the subscriber base. Recent financial results show strong revenue growth, but there is a near-term risk of missing earnings expectations, although the probability is low.

What Robinhood Markets hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on whether HOOD can maintain its growth trajectory and if sector leaders continue to perform well. Additionally, any changes in Federal Reserve interest rate policies could significantly impact performance.