Honeywell Aerospace (HONA)

USIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-16

$168.09+3.05%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Honeywell Aerospace’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.8%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

8.96 → 8.80 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBIT of at least $4.46 billion in 2025	Adjusted EBIT increased to $4.46 billion.	Broken	Adjusted EBIT falls below $4.46 billion in 2025	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBIT declined 7% from $1.066B in 2025-Q2 to $995M in 2026-Q2, with segment EBIT mixed: Electronic Solutions down 3%, Engines & Power Systems down 32%, Control Systems up 8%. Management acknowledges cost pressures and supply constraints, indicating limited progress on EBIT growth. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Organic sales growth of at least 12% YoY	A primary condition in Honeywell Aerospace's published investment case. The stated target is >=12% YoY.	Broken	Organic sales growth falls below 12% YoY in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Sales grew from $4.289B in 2025-Q2 to $4.522B in 2026-Q2 (+5%), with backlog increasing 9% to $18.2B. Management emphasizes mid-single-digit organic growth and strong secular trends, indicating delivery on growth targets so far. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Segment profit of at least $4.1 billion in 2025	Segment profit rose to $4.1 billion in 2025.	Broken	Segment profit falls below $4.1 billion in 2025	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBIT declined 7% from $1.066B in 2025-Q2 to $995M in 2026-Q2, with segment EBIT mixed: Electronic Solutions down 3%, Engines & Power Systems down 32%, Control Systems up 8%. Management acknowledges cost pressures and supply constraints, indicating limited progress on EBIT growth. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Complete spin-off and establish independent governance	The spin-off is complete and governance is independent.	Intact	Spin-off is reversed or governance fails to establish	Spin-off completed & governance active News confirms spin-off completion, executive share purchases, and standalone value realization, validating independent governance establishment. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-Q2 with completion of spin-off on June 29, 2026. The company transitioned to an independent public company with new governance. This milestone is complete as of the latest quarter. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$8.80

$9.58 → $8.80 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$19.86B

$20.23B → $19.86B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-08-08	$9.58	$20,232,565,110	15 / 13
2026-08-09	$9.25	$19,937,699,270	14 / 14
2026-08-10	$9.25	$19,937,699,270	14 / 14
2026-08-12	$9.20	$19,907,042,130	14 / 14
2026-08-13	$9.20	$19,907,042,130	14 / 14
2026-08-14	$9.59	$20,340,000,000	10 / 10
2026-08-15	$9.59	$20,340,000,000	9 / 10
2026-08-16	$9.59	$20,340,000,000	9 / 10
2026-08-17	$9.59	$20,340,000,000	9 / 10
2026-08-18	$9.59	$20,340,000,000	9 / 10
2026-08-19	$9.59	$20,340,000,000	9 / 10
2026-08-20	$9.29	$19,910,000,000	9 / 10
2026-08-21	$9.29	$19,910,000,000	9 / 10
2026-08-22	$9.29	$19,910,000,000	9 / 10
2026-08-23	$9.29	$19,910,000,000	9 / 10
2026-08-24	$9.29	$19,910,000,000	9 / 10
2026-08-25	$9.29	$19,910,000,000	9 / 10
2026-08-26	$9.29	$19,910,000,000	9 / 10
2026-08-27	$9.29	$19,910,000,000	9 / 10
2026-08-28	$9.29	$19,910,000,000	9 / 10
2026-08-29	$9.29	$19,910,000,000	9 / 10
2026-08-30	$9.29	$19,910,000,000	9 / 10
2026-08-31	$9.29	$19,910,000,000	9 / 10
2026-09-01	$9.29	$19,910,000,000	9 / 10
2026-09-02	$9.29	$19,910,000,000	8 / 10
2026-09-03	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	8 / 10
2026-09-04	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	8 / 10
2026-09-05	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	8 / 10
2026-09-06	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	8 / 10
2026-09-07	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	8 / 10
2026-09-08	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	8 / 10
2026-09-09	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	8 / 10
2026-09-10	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	8 / 10
2026-09-11	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	8 / 10
2026-09-12	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	8 / 10
2026-09-13	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	8 / 10
2026-09-14	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	8 / 10
2026-09-15	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	8 / 10
2026-09-16	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	8 / 10
2026-09-17	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	8 / 10
2026-09-18	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	8 / 10
2026-09-19	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	8 / 10
2026-09-20	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	9 / 10
2026-09-21	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	9 / 10
2026-09-22	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	9 / 10
2026-09-23	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	9 / 10
2026-09-24	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	9 / 10
2026-09-25	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	9 / 10
2026-09-26	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	9 / 10
2026-09-27	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	9 / 10
2026-09-28	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	9 / 10
2026-09-29	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	9 / 10
2026-09-30	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	9 / 10
2026-10-01	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	9 / 10
2026-10-02	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	9 / 10
2026-10-03	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	9 / 10
2026-10-04	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	9 / 10
2026-10-05	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	9 / 10
2026-10-06	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	9 / 10
2026-10-07	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	9 / 10
2026-10-08	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	8 / 11
2026-10-09	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	8 / 11
2026-10-10	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	8 / 11
2026-10-11	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	8 / 11
2026-10-12	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	8 / 11
2026-10-13	$8.96	$19,910,000,000	8 / 11
2026-10-14	$8.80	$19,860,000,000	8 / 11
2026-10-15	$8.80	$19,860,000,000	8 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-06-01	4	4
2026-07-01	5	10
2026-08-01	6	10
2026-09-01	6	10
2026-10-01	6	11

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 15 · prior Aug 6

$250.00 → $210.00-16.0%

Argus ResearchOct 9 · prior Jul 9

$275.00 → $210.00-23.6%

Goldman SachsOct 7

$190.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$151.25$302.50

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBIT of at least $4.46 billion in 2025Published status: Broken
Organic sales growth of at least 12% YoYPublished status: Broken
Segment profit of at least $4.1 billion in 2025Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-38.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Honeywell Aerospace outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment is in a moderate-risk industrial company with a focus on organic sales growth. The current thesis state is insufficient due to recent financial performance and low confidence from management.

What's priced into Honeywell Aerospace

The market appears to have low expectations for HONA, as there are no signs of fragility in its current valuation. However, the recent earnings miss and the overall sector backdrop suggest that investors are cautious.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has shown some progress in driving organic sales growth, with a 5% increase in sales and a 9% rise in backlog. However, adjusted EBIT has declined, indicating mixed results in maintaining profitability amidst cost pressures.

What Honeywell Aerospace hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on sector performance, particularly the results and guidance from major players like SPCX, GE, and RTX. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable backdrop for HONA, while any negative shifts could pose risks.