Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN)

NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-10-23

$46.30-2.26%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Horace Mann Educators Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	322.8M
EPS	—	1.303
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.27B
EPS	—	4.846
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.33B
EPS	—	5.373

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Dividend per share at least $0.36 in Q1 2026	The company keeps raising dividends, now $0.36 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.35 in any quarter	Dividend per share: $0.36 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.36 Q1 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 7, 20260.36 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9bda25a4-8d06-459e-ab7f-94eebb529124. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 4 quarters from 2025-Q2 through 2026-Q2. Dividend per share increased slightly from $0.35 in 2025-Q2 to $0.36 in 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2. Management has maintained dividend payments consistently, delivering on this capital allocation priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
EPS reaches at least $4.35 in FY26	Earnings per share guidance for 2026 is $4.35, showing stable profits.	Intact	EPS guidance falls below $4.2 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $1.01 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $4.35 FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20261.01 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9bda25a4-8d06-459e-ab7f-94eebb529124. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income rises to at least $50.2M in Q1 2026	A primary condition in Horace Mann Educators Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= $50.2M operating income Q1 2026.	Intact	Operating income falls below $46M in any quarter	Operating income: $49M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $50.2M operating income Q1 2026. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 7, 202649,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 quarters including 2025-Q2, 2025-Q4, and 2026-Q2. Net income increased from $29.4M in 2025-Q2 to $41.6M in 2026-Q2. Operating income was $45.7M in 2025-Q4. The trajectory shows improvement in profitability, consistent with management's focus on enhancing operating income. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue grows to at least $1.77B in FY26	A primary condition in Horace Mann Educators Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.77B total revenue FY26.	Broken	Total revenue falls below $1.67B in FY26	Revenue: $443.5M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.77B total revenue FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026443,500,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9bda25a4-8d06-459e-ab7f-94eebb529124. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 1
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	2	1
2026-06-01	2	1
2026-07-01	2	1
2026-08-01	2	1
2026-09-01	2	1
2026-10-01	2	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Dividend per share at least $0.36 in Q1 2026Dividend per share: $0.36 per share
EPS reaches at least $4.35 in FY26Diluted EPS: $1.01 per share
Operating income rises to at least $50.2M in Q1 2026Operating income: $49M
Revenue grows to at least $1.77B in FY26Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-17.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Horace Mann Educators Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

HMN is a financial company with a growth plan that relies in part on acquisitions. Its long-term thesis is intact, with management on track on revenue growth, earnings guidance, and dividends.

What's priced into Horace Mann Educators Corporation

HMN is described as cheap versus peers, and the valuation signal is marked as justified, with low fragility. The evidence does not show that the market is already assuming unusually strong results, though the expectations-gap measure is negative and its scale is not defined here.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue rose from $429.3 million in the first quarter of 2026 to $443.5 million in the second, while management raised full-year core earnings-per-share guidance. Acquisitions, including Employee Services LLC, are supporting growth, but the financial sector is a headwind and recent earnings surprises have been erratic and trending down.

What Horace Mann Educators Corporation hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on HMN sustaining its raised guidance and delivering growth from acquisitions; a reversal and guidance cut would damage management credibility. The sector backdrop also matters: falling rates could weigh on financial companies, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support momentum.