Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-09
$49.44-1.90%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue grows to at least $1.77B in FY26: FY26 revenue guidance $200M vs $1.77B target.
Horace Mann grows revenue steadily, from $402.9M in 2023-Q4 to $429.3M in 2026-Q1. Profit rose from $46M to $50.2M in the same period. The company keeps raising dividends, now $0.36 per share. Earnings per share guidance for 2026 is $4.35, showing stable profits.
Revenue growth is slow and earnings guidance is soft. Profit gains are modest and may stall. Dividend increases are small and could be cut if profits weaken.
The price is about 9% below our fair value near $59. Analysts expect about 6% revenue growth. Our view aligns with this, seeing steady but moderate growth and profit.
Breaks if: Dividend per share falls below $0.35 in any quarter
Breaks if: EPS guidance falls below $4.2 in FY26
Operating income falls below $46M in any quarter
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue growth and operating income enhancement. The current thesis state remains intact, supported by recent strong financial performance and stable management priorities.
The market appears to have a neutral valuation stance on HMN, with expectations closely aligned to current performance. There is a low expectations gap, indicating that the market is not overly optimistic or pessimistic about future results.
Fundamentals are likely to continue improving, given management's focus on revenue growth and operating income. Recent results show strong performance, although there is a slight risk of earnings surprises trending down.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like CB, PGR, and TRV. If these companies continue to perform well, HMN could benefit from the positive momentum in the Financials sector.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read has strengthened. It is supported by increase revenue growth.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Total revenue falls below $1.67B in FY26
Focus on growing revenue through acquisitions and organic growth to enhance overall business scale.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $411.7 million in 2025-Q2 to $443.5 million in 2026-Q2. Management highlighted acquisitions adding nearly $200 million in annual revenue. The trajectory shows delivering growth through M&A and organic expansion.
“These transactions add nearly $200 million in annual revenue”
“These transactions add nearly $200 million in annual revenue”
“These transactions add nearly $200 million in annual revenue”
Overall, HMN's strong management and recent performance suggest a stable outlook for the next 1 to 3 years. Not investment advice.