Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
HMH Holding, Inc. (HMH)
NASDAQIndustrialsOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$11.95-22.44%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.18 → 2.27 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|---|---|
| Quarter ending 2026-12-30 | ||
| Revenue | No revenue guidance available | 239.32M |
| EPS | No EPS guidance available | 0.979 |
| Annual ending 2026-12-31 | ||
| Revenue | No revenue guidance available | 790.21M |
| EPS | No EPS guidance available | 1.645 |
| Annual ending 2027-12-31 | ||
| Revenue | No revenue guidance available | |
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Disciplined capital allocation including share buybacks | A supporting condition in HMH Holding, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is continue share buybacks in FY26. | Intact | no share buybacks announced in FY26 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
HMH is a cyclical industrial business, meaning results can be sensitive to economic conditions. The long-term thesis is still insufficiently clear, with low overall evidence confidence, elevated risk, and stable management.
The evidence does not provide a valuation level or a clear account of market expectations, so it is not possible to assess whether HMH looks cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers. Fragility signals are low, but that does not establish what expectations are reflected in the valuation.
Near term, earnings execution remains uncertain: HMH missed earnings in May and beat in August, and its recent surprise history is described as erratic. Management has kept profitability as a priority, but second-quarter operating income was negative despite net income improving from the prior quarter. Buyback plans and partnership agreements are early announcements, with limited evidence yet on their effects.
The multi-year view partly hinges on whether management can turn its profitability priority into sustained operating income improvement. In the near term, industrial bellwether results could either support or weaken sector momentum, while continued weakness in the jobs report could raise recession concerns for cyclical businesses.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, HMH’s thesis depends on clearer profitability progress and how its industrial exposure responds to economic conditions. The evidence remains limited, so the business setup is uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
933.8M |
| EPS | No EPS guidance available | 2.269 |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
| Net income improved from $3.9M in Q1 to $5.0M in Q2. |
| Intact |
| net income falls below 5.0M in Q3 2026 |
Net income: $4.983M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=5.0M in Q3 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 20264,983,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improvement | The company is focusing on improving operating income, which was -$4.8M in Q2, indicating potential for recovery. | Under Pressure | operating income remains negative in Q3 2026 | Operating income: $21.83M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=0 in Q3 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 202621,830,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.18 → $2.27 · observed estimates
$0.95B → $0.93B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.18 | $947,911,979 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.18 | $947,795,840 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.24 | $946,052,389 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.24 | $946,052,389 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.24 | $946,052,389 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.24 | $946,052,389 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.24 | $946,052,389 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.24 | $946,052,389 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.24 | $946,052,389 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.24 | $946,052,389 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.24 | $946,052,389 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.24 | $946,052,389 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.24 | $946,052,389 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.24 | $946,052,389 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.24 | $946,052,389 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.27 | $933,795,840 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-05 | $2.27 | $933,795,840 | 3 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.