Hecla Mining (HL)
NYSEMaterialsOther Precious MetalsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$20.85+1.91%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsOther Precious MetalsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue growth: rev +100.0% vs 7.0%.
Hecla Mining benefits from rising gold and silver prices, supporting revenue growth. Free cash flow reached a record $144 million in Q1 2026. Operating income improved to $223 million in Q1 2026. The company focuses on maintaining profitability and cash flow.
Revenue declined from $504 million in Q4 2025 to $411 million in Q1 2026, showing weak growth. The stock is selling off with a 26% drawdown from its high. Profit margins and revenue growth remain under pressure amid sector headwinds.
The price is about 26% above our fair value near $12. Analysts expect 17.5% revenue growth. Our view is cautious given recent revenue weakness and market selloff.
Breaks if: free cash flow falls below 100 million USD next quarter
Breaks if: operating income falls below 150 million USD next quarter
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on strengthening its balance sheet and generating free cash flow. However, the current thesis state is challenged by volatility in management and the potential for earnings misses.
The market currently prices HL at an expensive valuation compared to its peers, indicating that investors expect strong performance. There is a notable expectations gap, suggesting that the stock may not fully reflect the risks associated with its recent financial performance.
Management is on track to strengthen the balance sheet and increase free cash flow, which supports operational goals. However, the company has a high probability of missing earnings estimates, which adds uncertainty to its near-term performance.
The future performance of HL hinges on whether it can maintain guidance without cuts, the trajectory of inflation, and the performance of sector bellwethers. These factors will significantly influence investor sentiment and the stock's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, HL's situation remains complex, balancing strong fundamentals against high risks and an expensive valuation. Not investment advice.