Hain Celestial Group, Inc. (The) (HAIN)

NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$0.15-4.34%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Hain Celestial Group, Inc. (The)’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	305.62M
EPS	—	0.025
Annual ending 2027-06-30
Revenue	—	1.13B
EPS	—	0.019
Annual ending 2028-06-30
Revenue	—	1.14B
EPS	—	0.075

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow reaches at least $40 million in FY25	Hain Celestial aims to improve with a $40M free cash flow target for FY25.	Broken	Free cash flow falls below $20 million in FY25	Free cash flow: $6.834M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=40 USD_MILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 14, 20266,834,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross margin improves to about 21.5% in FY25	The company plans to raise gross margin to 21.5% next year.	Improving	Gross margin falls below 18% in FY25	Gross margin: 22.5% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ~21.5%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 14, 202622.504742 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Date unavailable Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6cf04b81-3161-4f9f-b05b-ec58d55ec286. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Comply with Nasdaq minimum bid price to avoid delisting	A primary condition in Hain Celestial Group, Inc. (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is Bid price above Nasdaq minimum by end 2026.	Under Pressure	Failure to meet Nasdaq minimum bid price by end 2026	Delisting notice received vs target: Bid >$1.00 Nasdaq delisting notice received; bankruptcy rumors; divestitures announced. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-Q4. The company disclosed receipt of a Nasdaq notice regarding failure to meet minimum bid price for continued listing. This is a recent regulatory priority with no prior quarters stated. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Complete divestiture of North American Snacks business	It is working on divesting its North American Snacks business.	Improving	Divestiture not completed by end of 2026	SPA signed Sep 2026 vs mid-2026 target Hain signed a $323M SPA with Aurelius in September 2026 to sell international assets, advancing the divestiture driver. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The North American snacks business divestiture is complete, with snacks net sales declining 40% in 2026-Q3 and 91% in 2026-Q4. This divestiture has materially impacted reported sales and is aligned with management's stated portfolio simplification. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	1	5	1
2026-06-01	1	5	1
2026-07-01	1	4	1
2026-08-01	1	4	1
2026-09-01	1	2	1
2026-10-01	1	1	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow reaches at least $40 million in FY25Published status: Broken
Gross margin improves to about 21.5% in FY25Gross margin: 22.5%
Comply with Nasdaq minimum bid price to avoid delistingPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 6, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-90.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Hain Celestial Group, Inc. (The) outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a turnaround-style business with high risk, not a steady compounder. The multi-year view is in a watch state: management has made progress on cash and some North America measures, but recent financial performance remains weak and management execution has been volatile.

What's priced into Hain Celestial Group, Inc. (The)

HAIN screens as cheap versus peers, but the valuation model has low confidence and the evidence tags pricing as justified. The negative expectations gap suggests the market already reflects substantial concern, though the snapshot does not show that the business has cleared the challenges behind those expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results face risk: the company has a run of earnings misses, with a stated 51% miss probability, and momentum measures have weakened. Management reduced debt and improved North America organic sales and margins, but overall adjusted EBITDA declined in the latest comparison, so the operating recovery remains mixed.

What Hain Celestial Group, Inc. (The) hinges on

The next guidance update is a key swing factor, since a cut would add to estimate pressure. Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on sustained sales stabilization, better profitability, and continued cash and debt progress; weaker employment could add pressure, while stronger results from sector peers may support sector momentum.