Hyatt (H)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-10-23

$172.58-2.48%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Hyatt’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.86 → 4.81 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 15 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.82B
EPS	—	0.994
FY 2026 · Annual
Contra revenue	$74M–$74M	—
Revenue	-$2M–-$2M	7.15B
EPS	—	3.523
EBITDA	$1.16B–$1.21Bnon-GAAP	—
Free cash flow	$580M–$630Mnon-GAAP $493M–$543M	—
Operating cash flow	$628M–$678M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	7.73B
EPS	—	4.807

What the Thesis Depends On

5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Execute $1 billion share buyback program	The company has a $1 billion share buyback program underway.	Intact	Buyback program is halted or materially delayed	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain dividend per share at $0.15	A supporting condition in Hyatt's published investment case. The stated target is Dividend per share >= $0.15.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.15	Dividend per share: $0.15 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.15. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20260.15 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8f47898d-f102-4574-9845-10b4cf9ed5e0. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow of at least $580 million in 2026 and $800 million by 2028	A primary condition in Hyatt's published investment case. The stated target is >= $580 million in 2026 and >= $800 million in 2028.	Intact	free cash flow falls below $580 million in 2026 or below $800 million in 2028	Free cash flow: $-18M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $580 million in 2026 and >= $800 million in 2028. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026-18,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income growth to sustain or exceed $57 million quarterly	Operating income rose from $52 million to $57 million in early 2026.	Intact	operating income falls below $52 million quarterly	Operating income: $142M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $57 million quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026142,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 quarters including 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, and 2025-Q4. Adjusted EBITDA increased 3.4% in 2026-Q2 year-over-year and full year 2026 guidance projects a 13% to 18% increase over 2025. Operating income and profitability are improving consistent with management's stated focus. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth to at least $1.3 billion in 2026 and $1.5 billion by 2028	A primary condition in Hyatt's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.3 billion in 2026 and >= $1.5 billion in 2028.	Intact	revenue falls below $1.3 billion in 2026 or below $1.5 billion in 2028	Revenue: $1.829B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.3 billion in 2026 and >= $1.5 billion in 2028. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20261,829,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8f47898d-f102-4574-9845-10b4cf9ed5e0. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.81

$4.87 → $4.81 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$7.73B

$7.72B → $7.73B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.87	$7,715,279,915	15 / 14
2026-07-25	$5.04	$7,739,267,570	21 / 17
2026-07-26	$5.04	$7,739,267,570	21 / 17
2026-07-27	$4.92	$7,719,204,459	14 / 14
2026-07-28	$5.00	$7,748,474,930	22 / 18
2026-07-29	$4.92	$7,719,204,459	15 / 14
2026-07-30	$5.00	$7,748,474,930	22 / 18
2026-07-31	$4.94	$7,751,646,750	22 / 17
2026-08-01	$4.89	$7,719,086,812	15 / 13
2026-08-02	$4.90	$7,749,901,740	22 / 18
2026-08-03	$4.82	$7,723,043,738	15 / 14
2026-08-04	$4.90	$7,749,901,740	22 / 18
2026-08-05	$4.87	$7,731,064,570	22 / 18
2026-08-06	$4.87	$7,731,064,570	22 / 18
2026-08-07	$4.82	$7,723,043,738	15 / 14
2026-08-08	$4.87	$7,729,415,700	22 / 18
2026-08-09	$4.87	$7,729,415,700	22 / 18
2026-08-10	$4.82	$7,723,043,738	15 / 14
2026-08-12	$4.87	$7,719,804,590	22 / 18
2026-08-13	$4.82	$7,723,043,738	15 / 14
2026-08-14	$4.82	$7,723,043,738	15 / 14
2026-08-15	$4.82	$7,723,043,738	15 / 14
2026-08-16	$4.82	$7,723,043,738	15 / 14
2026-08-17	$4.82	$7,723,043,738	15 / 14
2026-08-18	$4.82	$7,723,043,738	15 / 14
2026-08-19	$4.82	$7,723,043,738	15 / 14
2026-08-20	$4.81	$7,734,040,560	15 / 14
2026-08-21	$4.81	$7,734,040,560	15 / 14
2026-08-22	$4.81	$7,734,040,560	15 / 14
2026-08-23	$4.80	$7,733,458,207	15 / 14
2026-08-24	$4.80	$7,733,458,207	15 / 14
2026-08-25	$4.80	$7,733,458,207	15 / 14
2026-08-26	$4.80	$7,733,458,207	15 / 14
2026-08-27	$4.80	$7,733,458,207	15 / 14
2026-08-28	$4.80	$7,733,458,207	15 / 14
2026-08-29	$4.80	$7,733,458,207	15 / 14
2026-08-30	$4.75	$7,727,424,344	15 / 14
2026-08-31	$4.75	$7,727,424,344	15 / 14
2026-09-01	$4.75	$7,727,424,344	15 / 14
2026-09-02	$4.75	$7,727,424,344	15 / 14
2026-09-03	$4.76	$7,725,399,383	15 / 14
2026-09-04	$4.76	$7,725,399,383	15 / 15
2026-09-05	$4.79	$7,725,380,688	15 / 15
2026-09-06	$4.79	$7,725,380,688	15 / 15
2026-09-07	$4.79	$7,725,380,688	15 / 15
2026-09-08	$4.79	$7,725,380,688	15 / 15
2026-09-09	$4.79	$7,725,380,688	15 / 15
2026-09-10	$4.79	$7,725,380,688	15 / 15
2026-09-11	$4.85	$7,733,859,538	15 / 15
2026-09-12	$4.85	$7,733,859,538	15 / 15
2026-09-13	$4.85	$7,733,859,538	15 / 15
2026-09-14	$4.85	$7,733,859,538	15 / 15
2026-09-15	$4.85	$7,733,859,538	15 / 15
2026-09-16	$4.85	$7,733,859,538	15 / 15
2026-09-17	$4.85	$7,733,859,538	15 / 15
2026-09-18	$4.85	$7,733,859,538	15 / 15
2026-09-19	$4.85	$7,733,859,538	15 / 15
2026-09-20	$4.86	$7,733,859,538	15 / 15
2026-09-21	$4.86	$7,733,859,538	15 / 15
2026-09-22	$4.86	$7,733,859,538	15 / 15
2026-09-23	$4.86	$7,733,859,538	15 / 15
2026-09-24	$4.86	$7,733,859,538	15 / 15
2026-09-25	$4.86	$7,733,859,538	15 / 15
2026-09-26	$4.86	$7,733,859,538	15 / 15
2026-09-27	$4.86	$7,733,859,538	15 / 15
2026-09-28	$4.86	$7,733,859,538	15 / 15
2026-09-29	$4.86	$7,733,859,538	15 / 15
2026-09-30	$4.86	$7,733,859,538	15 / 15
2026-10-01	$4.86	$7,733,859,538	15 / 15
2026-10-02	$4.86	$7,733,859,538	15 / 15
2026-10-03	$4.86	$7,733,859,538	15 / 15
2026-10-04	$4.86	$7,733,859,538	15 / 15
2026-10-05	$4.86	$7,733,859,538	15 / 15
2026-10-06	$4.86	$7,733,859,538	15 / 15
2026-10-07	$4.86	$7,733,859,538	15 / 15
2026-10-08	$4.86	$7,733,859,538	15 / 15
2026-10-09	$4.86	$7,732,970,649	15 / 15
2026-10-10	$4.86	$7,732,970,649	15 / 15
2026-10-11	$4.86	$7,732,970,649	15 / 15
2026-10-12	$4.86	$7,732,970,649	15 / 15
2026-10-13	$4.86	$7,732,970,649	15 / 15
2026-10-14	$4.87	$7,740,060,705	15 / 15
2026-10-15	$4.79	$7,735,531,194	15 / 15
2026-10-16	$4.79	$7,736,077,247	15 / 15
2026-10-17	$4.79	$7,736,077,247	15 / 15
2026-10-18	$4.79	$7,736,077,247	15 / 15
2026-10-19	$4.79	$7,736,077,247	15 / 15
2026-10-20	$4.79	$7,736,235,141	15 / 15
2026-10-21	$4.80	$7,729,778,185	15 / 15
2026-10-22	$4.80	$7,729,725,553	15 / 15
2026-10-23	$4.81	$7,730,998,264	15 / 15
2026-10-24	$4.81	$7,730,998,264	15 / 15

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	13	10	1
2026-06-01	14	9	1
2026-07-01	14	9	1
2026-08-01	14	9	1
2026-09-01	15	9	0
2026-10-01	16	9	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades7 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 7 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 19 · prior Jul 16

$186.00 → $189.00+1.6%

BarclaysOct 16 · prior Jul 31

$201.00 → $202.00+0.5%

Morgan StanleyOct 12 · prior Aug 18

$209.00 → $211.00+1.0%

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 8 · prior May 29

$221.00 → $222.00+0.5%

$0$122.10$244.20

4 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Execute $1 billion share buyback programDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain dividend per share at $0.15Dividend per share: $0.15 per share
Free cash flow of at least $580 million in 2026 and $800 million by 2028Free cash flow: $-18M
Operating income growth to sustain or exceed $57 million quarterlyOperating income: $142M
Revenue growth to at least $1.3 billion in 2026 and $1.5 billion by 2028Revenue: $1.829B

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-23.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Hyatt outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

H is a hotel business with a growth thesis tied to brand differentiation, loyalty, and executed room contracts. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: recent performance is weak versus its industry cohort, while execution evidence is mixed.

What's priced into Hyatt

H is expensive versus peers, and the valuation evidence points to expectations that depend partly on a re-rating, or a change in how the market values the business. The expectations gap is notable, but model confidence is low; the evidence does not show that the full combination of expensive valuation, weak performance, and turbulent execution is priced in.

What the fundamentals likely do

In the near term, results could remain uneven: H recently reported an earnings beat, but recent financial performance is weak and earnings surprises have been erratic. Over the multi-year view, executed contracts grew about 10% year over year, gross fees rose 7.8%, and adjusted EBITDA rose 3.4% in 2026-Q2, while management’s growth execution remains mixed. A guidance cut on the next call is a key near-term risk.

What Hyatt hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on whether brand, loyalty, and technology efforts keep supporting contract growth and fees. Near term, guidance is a swing factor, while earnings and guidance from hotel peers MAR, HLT, and IHG may signal whether the sector backdrop is helping or weakening. Capital returns are on track, but capital spending discipline is behind management’s stated priority.