Gates Corporation (GTES)

Q: What's priced into Gates Corporation (GTES) stock?

The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, and the priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility. The expectations gap is negative, while valuation has risen recently, so the cheap-versus-peers view should be weighed against that change.

Q: What does the Gates Corporation (GTES) outlook hinge on?

The key company-specific risk is whether management can sustain its raised guidance; a reversal and guidance cut would also damage credibility. The sector signal matters too: continued strength from GEV, PH, and TT could support the industrial backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.

NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-23

$25.08-0.08%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Gates Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.8%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.93 → 1.92 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	916.57M
EPS	—	0.451
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.61B
EPS	$1.62–$1.7non-GAAP	1.677
Capital expenditure	About $120M	—
EBITDA	$800M–$830Mnon-GAAP	—
Revenue growth	2.5%–4.5%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.79B
EPS	—	1.917

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS between $1.52 and $1.68 in fiscal 2026	EPS guidance stays between $1.52 and $1.68.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $1.52 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.67 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.52. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20260.67 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a80514d3-d957-454a-b3ce-38df51ff1874. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow margin above 80% in fiscal 2026	Free cash flow remains strong above 80%.	Intact	free cash flow margin falls below 80% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue near $805 million in fiscal 2026	Gates Industrial keeps steady revenue near $800 million in 2026.	Under Pressure	revenue falls below $775 million in FY26	Revenue: $941.6M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$805 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 2026941,600,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 27, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a80514d3-d957-454a-b3ce-38df51ff1874. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain valuation discount to peers with PE near 17.3	A supporting condition in Gates Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is PE <= 20 (below peer median 31.3).	Intact	PE rises above 25 without fundamental improvement	P/E (TTM): 16.39x As of 2026-10-23; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 23, 202616.3922 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 23, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: GTES:2026-10-23. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.92

$1.88 → $1.92 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.79B

$3.74B → $3.79B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.88	$3,739,395,030	11 / 10
2026-07-25	$1.88	$3,739,366,550	6 / 7
2026-07-26	$1.88	$3,739,395,030	11 / 10
2026-07-27	$1.88	$3,739,366,550	6 / 7
2026-07-28	$1.88	$3,738,883,260	10 / 9
2026-07-29	$1.88	$3,739,395,030	11 / 10
2026-07-30	$1.88	$3,739,395,030	11 / 10
2026-07-31	$1.88	$3,739,395,030	11 / 10
2026-08-01	$1.88	$3,739,366,550	6 / 7
2026-08-02	$1.89	$3,741,660,611	6 / 7
2026-08-03	$1.89	$3,745,225,030	11 / 10
2026-08-04	$1.89	$3,745,225,030	11 / 10
2026-08-05	$1.92	$3,773,451,020	11 / 10
2026-08-06	$1.92	$3,773,451,020	11 / 10
2026-08-07	$1.91	$3,769,898,638	6 / 7
2026-08-08	$1.92	$3,776,023,740	11 / 10
2026-08-09	$1.92	$3,776,023,740	11 / 10
2026-08-10	$1.92	$3,776,023,740	11 / 10
2026-08-12	$1.93	$3,787,023,690	11 / 10
2026-08-13	$1.91	$3,769,898,638	6 / 7
2026-08-14	$1.91	$3,769,898,638	6 / 7
2026-08-15	$1.91	$3,769,898,638	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$1.91	$3,769,898,638	6 / 7
2026-08-17	$1.91	$3,769,898,638	6 / 7
2026-08-18	$1.91	$3,769,898,638	6 / 7
2026-08-19	$1.91	$3,769,898,638	6 / 7
2026-08-20	$1.93	$3,787,069,896	6 / 7
2026-08-21	$1.93	$3,787,069,896	6 / 7
2026-08-22	$1.93	$3,794,725,708	6 / 7
2026-08-23	$1.93	$3,794,725,708	6 / 7
2026-08-24	$1.93	$3,794,725,708	6 / 7
2026-08-25	$1.93	$3,794,725,708	6 / 7
2026-08-26	$1.93	$3,794,725,708	6 / 7
2026-08-27	$1.93	$3,794,725,708	6 / 7
2026-08-28	$1.93	$3,794,725,708	6 / 7
2026-08-29	$1.93	$3,794,725,708	6 / 7
2026-08-30	$1.93	$3,794,725,708	6 / 7
2026-08-31	$1.93	$3,794,725,708	6 / 7
2026-09-01	$1.93	$3,793,296,098	6 / 7
2026-09-02	$1.93	$3,793,296,098	6 / 7
2026-09-03	$1.93	$3,793,296,098	7 / 8
2026-09-04	$1.93	$3,793,296,098	7 / 8
2026-09-05	$1.93	$3,793,296,098	7 / 8
2026-09-06	$1.93	$3,793,296,098	7 / 8
2026-09-07	$1.93	$3,793,296,098	7 / 8
2026-09-08	$1.93	$3,793,296,098	7 / 8
2026-09-09	$1.93	$3,793,296,098	7 / 8
2026-09-10	$1.93	$3,793,296,098	7 / 8
2026-09-11	$1.93	$3,793,296,079	7 / 8
2026-09-12	$1.93	$3,793,296,079	7 / 8
2026-09-13	$1.93	$3,793,296,079	7 / 8
2026-09-14	$1.93	$3,793,296,079	7 / 8
2026-09-15	$1.93	$3,793,296,079	7 / 8
2026-09-16	$1.93	$3,793,296,079	7 / 8
2026-09-17	$1.93	$3,793,296,079	7 / 8
2026-09-18	$1.93	$3,793,296,079	7 / 8
2026-09-19	$1.93	$3,793,296,079	7 / 8
2026-09-20	$1.93	$3,796,023,352	7 / 8
2026-09-21	$1.93	$3,796,023,352	7 / 8
2026-09-22	$1.93	$3,796,023,352	7 / 8
2026-09-23	$1.93	$3,796,023,352	7 / 8
2026-09-24	$1.93	$3,796,023,352	7 / 8
2026-09-25	$1.93	$3,796,023,352	7 / 8
2026-09-26	$1.93	$3,796,023,352	7 / 8
2026-09-27	$1.93	$3,796,023,352	7 / 8
2026-09-28	$1.93	$3,796,023,352	7 / 8
2026-09-29	$1.93	$3,796,023,352	7 / 8
2026-09-30	$1.93	$3,796,023,352	7 / 8
2026-10-01	$1.93	$3,796,023,352	7 / 8
2026-10-02	$1.93	$3,796,023,352	7 / 8
2026-10-03	$1.93	$3,796,023,352	7 / 8
2026-10-04	$1.93	$3,796,023,352	7 / 8
2026-10-05	$1.93	$3,796,023,352	7 / 8
2026-10-06	$1.93	$3,796,023,352	7 / 8
2026-10-07	$1.93	$3,792,114,261	7 / 8
2026-10-08	$1.93	$3,792,114,261	7 / 8
2026-10-09	$1.92	$3,792,077,897	7 / 8
2026-10-10	$1.92	$3,792,077,897	7 / 8
2026-10-11	$1.92	$3,792,077,897	7 / 8
2026-10-12	$1.92	$3,792,077,897	7 / 7
2026-10-13	$1.92	$3,792,077,897	7 / 7
2026-10-14	$1.92	$3,792,692,551	7 / 7
2026-10-15	$1.92	$3,792,947,097	7 / 7
2026-10-16	$1.92	$3,792,947,097	7 / 7
2026-10-17	$1.92	$3,792,947,097	7 / 7
2026-10-18	$1.92	$3,792,947,097	7 / 7
2026-10-19	$1.92	$3,792,947,097	7 / 7
2026-10-20	$1.92	$3,792,947,097	7 / 7
2026-10-21	$1.92	$3,793,021,641	7 / 7
2026-10-22	$1.92	$3,793,021,641	7 / 7
2026-10-23	$1.92	$3,793,021,641	7 / 7
2026-10-24	$1.92	$3,793,021,641	7 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	3
2026-06-01	9	3
2026-07-01	8	3
2026-08-01	8	4
2026-09-01	8	4
2026-10-01	8	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS between $1.52 and $1.68 in fiscal 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Free cash flow margin above 80% in fiscal 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue near $805 million in fiscal 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Maintain valuation discount to peers with PE near 17.3P/E (TTM): 16.39x

Next proof point

Oct 30, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-25.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Gates Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

GTES is a value-oriented industrial business with a multi-year thesis that currently rests on steady execution rather than a turnaround. The thesis is intact, but risk is elevated and recent financial performance is neutral.

What's priced into Gates Corporation

The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, and the priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility. The expectations gap is negative, while valuation has risen recently, so the cheap-versus-peers view should be weighed against that change.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management's record is supportive: it raised 2026 guidance for sales, profitability, and earnings per share after three recent earnings beats. Capital spending and cash conversion priorities are mixed, and the industrial-sector backdrop is a headwind. Recent peer misses and a past deep miss add risk, though the stated near-term miss watch tier is quiet.

What Gates Corporation hinges on

The key company-specific risk is whether management can sustain its raised guidance; a reversal and guidance cut would also damage credibility. The sector signal matters too: continued strength from GEV, PH, and TT could support the industrial backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.

Bottom line

Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis remains intact, supported by guidance upgrades and recent earnings beats, but depends on continued execution amid elevated risk and sector headwinds. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	916.57M
EPS	—	0.451
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.61B
EPS	$1.62–$1.7non-GAAP	1.677
Capital expenditure	About $120M	—
EBITDA	$800M–$830Mnon-GAAP	—
Revenue growth	2.5%–4.5%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.79B
EPS	—	1.917

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.92

$1.88 → $1.92 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.79B

$3.74B → $3.79B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.88	$3,739,395,030	11 / 10
2026-07-25	$1.88	$3,739,366,550	6 / 7
2026-07-26	$1.88	$3,739,395,030	11 / 10
2026-07-27	$1.88	$3,739,366,550	6 / 7
2026-07-28	$1.88	$3,738,883,260	10 / 9
2026-07-29	$1.88	$3,739,395,030	11 / 10
2026-07-30	$1.88	$3,739,395,030	11 / 10
2026-07-31	$1.88	$3,739,395,030	11 / 10
2026-08-01	$1.88	$3,739,366,550	6 / 7
2026-08-02	$1.89	$3,741,660,611	6 / 7
2026-08-03	$1.89	$3,745,225,030	11 / 10
2026-08-04	$1.89	$3,745,225,030	11 / 10
2026-08-05	$1.92	$3,773,451,020	11 / 10
2026-08-06	$1.92	$3,773,451,020	11 / 10
2026-08-07	$1.91	$3,769,898,638	6 / 7
2026-08-08	$1.92	$3,776,023,740	11 / 10
2026-08-09	$1.92	$3,776,023,740	11 / 10
2026-08-10	$1.92	$3,776,023,740	11 / 10
2026-08-12	$1.93	$3,787,023,690	11 / 10
2026-08-13	$1.91	$3,769,898,638	6 / 7
2026-08-14	$1.91	$3,769,898,638	6 / 7
2026-08-15	$1.91	$3,769,898,638	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$1.91	$3,769,898,638	6 / 7
2026-08-17	$1.91	$3,769,898,638	6 / 7
2026-08-18	$1.91	$3,769,898,638	6 / 7
2026-08-19	$1.91	$3,769,898,638	6 / 7
2026-08-20	$1.93	$3,787,069,896	6 / 7
2026-08-21	$1.93	$3,787,069,896	6 / 7
2026-08-22	$1.93	$3,794,725,708	6 / 7
2026-08-23	$1.93	$3,794,725,708	6 / 7
2026-08-24	$1.93	$3,794,725,708	6 / 7
2026-08-25	$1.93	$3,794,725,708	6 / 7
2026-08-26	$1.93	$3,794,725,708	6 / 7
2026-08-27	$1.93	$3,794,725,708	6 / 7
2026-08-28	$1.93	$3,794,725,708	6 / 7
2026-08-29	$1.93	$3,794,725,708	6 / 7
2026-08-30	$1.93	$3,794,725,708	6 / 7
2026-08-31	$1.93	$3,794,725,708	6 / 7
2026-09-01	$1.93	$3,793,296,098	6 / 7
2026-09-02	$1.93	$3,793,296,098	6 / 7
2026-09-03	$1.93	$3,793,296,098	7 / 8
2026-09-04	$1.93	$3,793,296,098	7 / 8
2026-09-05	$1.93	$3,793,296,098	7 / 8
2026-09-06	$1.93	$3,793,296,098	7 / 8
2026-09-07	$1.93	$3,793,296,098	7 / 8
2026-09-08	$1.93	$3,793,296,098	7 / 8
2026-09-09	$1.93	$3,793,296,098	7 / 8
2026-09-10	$1.93	$3,793,296,098	7 / 8
2026-09-11	$1.93	$3,793,296,079	7 / 8
2026-09-12	$1.93	$3,793,296,079	7 / 8
2026-09-13	$1.93	$3,793,296,079	7 / 8
2026-09-14	$1.93	$3,793,296,079	7 / 8
2026-09-15	$1.93	$3,793,296,079	7 / 8
2026-09-16	$1.93	$3,793,296,079	7 / 8
2026-09-17	$1.93	$3,793,296,079	7 / 8
2026-09-18	$1.93	$3,793,296,079	7 / 8
2026-09-19	$1.93	$3,793,296,079	7 / 8
2026-09-20	$1.93	$3,796,023,352	7 / 8
2026-09-21	$1.93	$3,796,023,352	7 / 8
2026-09-22	$1.93	$3,796,023,352	7 / 8
2026-09-23	$1.93	$3,796,023,352	7 / 8
2026-09-24	$1.93	$3,796,023,352	7 / 8
2026-09-25	$1.93	$3,796,023,352	7 / 8
2026-09-26	$1.93	$3,796,023,352	7 / 8
2026-09-27	$1.93	$3,796,023,352	7 / 8
2026-09-28	$1.93	$3,796,023,352	7 / 8
2026-09-29	$1.93	$3,796,023,352	7 / 8
2026-09-30	$1.93	$3,796,023,352	7 / 8
2026-10-01	$1.93	$3,796,023,352	7 / 8
2026-10-02	$1.93	$3,796,023,352	7 / 8
2026-10-03	$1.93	$3,796,023,352	7 / 8
2026-10-04	$1.93	$3,796,023,352	7 / 8
2026-10-05	$1.93	$3,796,023,352	7 / 8
2026-10-06	$1.93	$3,796,023,352	7 / 8
2026-10-07	$1.93	$3,792,114,261	7 / 8
2026-10-08	$1.93	$3,792,114,261	7 / 8
2026-10-09	$1.92	$3,792,077,897	7 / 8
2026-10-10	$1.92	$3,792,077,897	7 / 8
2026-10-11	$1.92	$3,792,077,897	7 / 8
2026-10-12	$1.92	$3,792,077,897	7 / 7
2026-10-13	$1.92	$3,792,077,897	7 / 7
2026-10-14	$1.92	$3,792,692,551	7 / 7
2026-10-15	$1.92	$3,792,947,097	7 / 7
2026-10-16	$1.92	$3,792,947,097	7 / 7
2026-10-17	$1.92	$3,792,947,097	7 / 7
2026-10-18	$1.92	$3,792,947,097	7 / 7
2026-10-19	$1.92	$3,792,947,097	7 / 7
2026-10-20	$1.92	$3,792,947,097	7 / 7
2026-10-21	$1.92	$3,793,021,641	7 / 7
2026-10-22	$1.92	$3,793,021,641	7 / 7
2026-10-23	$1.92	$3,793,021,641	7 / 7
2026-10-24	$1.92	$3,793,021,641	7 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings