GSK PLC (GSK)

NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-10-23

$50.75-0.90%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge GSK PLC’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.87 → 3.82 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	9.03B
EPS	—	0.613
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	34.2B
EPS	—	3.619
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	35.74B
EPS	—	3.821

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS near $5.12 in FY27	Earnings per share are about $5 next year.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $4.50 in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
successful integration of $10.6B Nuvalent acquisition	A supporting condition in GSK PLC's published investment case. The stated target is integration completed and contributing to revenue by FY27.	Intact	Acquisition fails to contribute or is divested by FY27	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
annual revenue growth near 5% in FY27	A primary condition in GSK PLC's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 3% in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.82

$3.92 → $3.82 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$35.74B

$35.73B → $35.74B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.92	$35,732,354,426	6 / 13
2026-07-25	$3.92	$35,732,354,426	6 / 13
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$35,637,050,330	3 / 19
2026-07-27	$3.92	$35,741,365,341	6 / 13
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$35,652,379,320	3 / 19
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$35,652,379,320	3 / 19
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$35,652,379,320	3 / 19
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$35,623,096,920	3 / 19
2026-08-01	$3.90	$35,657,916,002	6 / 14
2026-08-02	$3.90	$35,657,916,002	6 / 14
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$35,618,321,400	3 / 19
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$35,618,321,400	3 / 19
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$35,623,806,290	3 / 19
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$35,623,806,290	3 / 19
2026-08-07	$3.88	$35,709,293,457	6 / 14
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$35,628,626,770	3 / 19
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$35,628,626,770	3 / 19
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$35,628,626,770	3 / 19
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$35,595,324,510	3 / 19
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$35,595,324,510	3 / 19
2026-08-14	$3.88	$35,709,293,457	6 / 14
2026-08-15	$3.88	$35,709,293,457	6 / 14
2026-08-16	$3.88	$35,709,293,457	6 / 14
2026-08-17	$3.88	$35,709,293,457	6 / 14
2026-08-18	$3.88	$35,709,293,457	6 / 14
2026-08-19	$3.88	$35,709,293,457	6 / 14
2026-08-20	$3.84	$35,719,007,820	6 / 14
2026-08-21	$3.84	$35,719,007,820	6 / 14
2026-08-22	$3.84	$35,719,007,820	6 / 14
2026-08-23	$3.84	$35,719,007,820	6 / 14
2026-08-24	$3.84	$35,719,007,820	6 / 14
2026-08-25	$3.84	$35,691,611,643	6 / 14
2026-08-26	$3.84	$35,691,611,643	6 / 14
2026-08-27	$3.84	$35,691,611,643	6 / 14
2026-08-28	$3.84	$35,691,611,643	6 / 14
2026-08-29	$3.84	$35,715,564,721	6 / 14
2026-08-30	$3.84	$35,715,564,721	6 / 14
2026-08-31	$3.84	$35,715,564,721	6 / 14
2026-09-01	$3.84	$35,715,564,721	6 / 14
2026-09-02	$3.83	$35,715,564,721	6 / 14
2026-09-03	$3.83	$35,682,494,809	6 / 14
2026-09-04	$3.83	$35,682,494,809	6 / 14
2026-09-05	$3.83	$35,693,199,732	6 / 14
2026-09-06	$3.83	$35,693,199,732	6 / 14
2026-09-07	$3.83	$35,693,199,732	6 / 14
2026-09-08	$3.83	$35,693,199,732	6 / 14
2026-09-09	$3.83	$35,715,550,345	6 / 14
2026-09-10	$3.83	$35,715,550,345	6 / 14
2026-09-11	$3.83	$35,736,807,231	6 / 14
2026-09-12	$3.83	$35,736,807,231	6 / 14
2026-09-13	$3.83	$35,736,807,231	6 / 14
2026-09-14	$3.84	$35,736,807,231	6 / 14
2026-09-15	$3.83	$35,719,069,622	6 / 14
2026-09-16	$3.84	$35,759,581,402	6 / 14
2026-09-17	$3.84	$35,759,581,402	6 / 14
2026-09-18	$3.84	$35,759,581,402	6 / 14
2026-09-19	$3.84	$35,759,581,402	6 / 14
2026-09-20	$3.85	$35,811,144,021	6 / 14
2026-09-21	$3.85	$35,733,199,109	6 / 14
2026-09-22	$3.85	$35,734,558,663	7 / 14
2026-09-23	$3.85	$35,797,473,862	7 / 14
2026-09-24	$3.87	$35,939,670,175	7 / 14
2026-09-25	$3.86	$35,954,499,343	7 / 14
2026-09-26	$3.86	$35,949,151,060	7 / 14
2026-09-27	$3.86	$35,949,151,060	7 / 14
2026-09-28	$3.87	$35,995,375,504	7 / 14
2026-09-29	$3.87	$36,056,976,261	7 / 14
2026-09-30	$3.87	$36,040,422,052	7 / 14
2026-10-01	$3.87	$36,036,058,822	7 / 14
2026-10-02	$3.87	$36,075,536,922	7 / 14
2026-10-03	$3.86	$36,064,175,631	7 / 14
2026-10-04	$3.86	$36,062,393,467	7 / 14
2026-10-05	$3.86	$36,082,601,927	7 / 14
2026-10-06	$3.85	$35,993,869,050	7 / 14
2026-10-07	$3.84	$35,952,682,976	7 / 14
2026-10-08	$3.84	$35,945,386,452	7 / 14
2026-10-09	$3.83	$35,895,002,038	7 / 14
2026-10-10	$3.83	$35,895,002,038	7 / 14
2026-10-11	$3.82	$35,784,786,046	7 / 15
2026-10-12	$3.82	$35,799,556,910	7 / 15
2026-10-13	$3.83	$35,802,541,098	7 / 15
2026-10-14	$3.83	$35,778,439,164	7 / 14
2026-10-15	$3.82	$35,725,150,003	7 / 14
2026-10-16	$3.82	$35,731,723,323	7 / 14
2026-10-17	$3.82	$35,731,723,323	7 / 14
2026-10-18	$3.82	$35,736,504,805	7 / 14
2026-10-19	$3.82	$35,736,504,805	7 / 14
2026-10-20	$3.82	$35,727,300,569	7 / 14
2026-10-21	$3.82	$35,718,733,321	7 / 14
2026-10-22	$3.82	$35,718,733,321	7 / 14
2026-10-23	$3.82	$35,742,815,447	7 / 14
2026-10-24	$3.82	$35,742,815,447	7 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	6	1
2026-06-01	2	5	1
2026-07-01	2	5	1
2026-08-01	2	5	1
2026-09-01	3	5	1
2026-10-01	4	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS near $5.12 in FY27Published status: Under Pressure
successful integration of $10.6B Nuvalent acquisitionQualitative condition
annual revenue growth near 5% in FY27Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-23.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

GSK PLC outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is best described as a healthcare-sector exposure with an insufficiently established company-specific thesis. The thesis state is unclear, and confidence is low.

What's priced into GSK PLC

The snapshot gives no valuation or expectations data, so it does not show whether GSK is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers, or what the market already assumes. The muted price reaction does not resolve that gap.

What the fundamentals likely do

The healthcare sector backdrop has strengthened, which may support the near-term setting for GSK, but the snapshot provides too little recent company financial history to assess its fundamental trajectory. Near-term miss risk is described as low, though the evidence notes a deep past miss and recent peer misses.

What GSK PLC hinges on

The near-term sector setting may depend on whether bellwethers such as LLY, JNJ, and ABBV keep delivering strong results and guidance. A weakening jobs report could also increase recession concerns, while company-specific execution remains hard to judge from the limited evidence.