GSI Technology Inc (GSIT)

Q: What's priced into GSI Technology Inc (GSIT) stock?

The evidence describes GSIT as cheap versus peers, while also showing a 0.69 premium versus peers and a negative expectations gap of -0.74, so the valuation signals are mixed. The priced-in tag is justified and fragility is low, but the evidence does not specify what operating assumptions the market already expects.

Q: What does the GSI Technology Inc (GSIT) outlook hinge on?

Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on commercializing Gemini-II, advancing proof-of-concept projects, and delivering the planned Plato tape-out. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; rate cuts or continued strong results from major technology companies are listed as possible sector tailwinds, not company-specific proof of progress.

NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$3.860.00%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge GSI Technology Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	6.19M
EPS	—	-0.116
Annual ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	98.3M
EPS	—	0.78
Annual ending 2028-03-31
Revenue	—	152.6M
EPS	—	1.8

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Gross margin near 55% next quarter	Gross margin is expected near 55%.	Broken	Gross margin falls below 54% next quarter	Gross margin: 53.37% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: 54% to 56%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 11, 202653.374525 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1b515552-6463-44bd-8400-0b63f48abd6f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Improvement from loss-making to positive free cash flow	A supporting condition in GSI Technology Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Free cash flow yield >= 0%.	Broken	Free cash flow yield remains negative beyond next 4 quarters	Valuation inputs unavailable A completed valuation measurement is required. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue within $5.9M to $6.7M range next quarter	Recent revenue delivery within guidance shows some stability.	Broken	Revenue falls below $5.9M or exceeds $6.7M outside guidance next quarter	Revenue: $6.312M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $5.9M and <= $6.7M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 11, 20266,312,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1b515552-6463-44bd-8400-0b63f48abd6f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-09-01	1	0	0
2026-10-01	1	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Gross margin near 55% next quarterPublished status: Broken
Improvement from loss-making to positive free cash flowPublished status: Broken
Revenue within $5.9M to $6.7M range next quarterPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-68.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

GSI Technology Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is speculative growth, meaning the case depends on future products and commercialization rather than current profits. The long-term thesis is on watch: management is advancing Gemini-II and Plato, but recent financial performance is weak and confidence has fallen to low.

What's priced into GSI Technology Inc

The evidence describes GSIT as cheap versus peers, while also showing a 0.69 premium versus peers and a negative expectations gap of -0.74, so the valuation signals are mixed. The priced-in tag is justified and fragility is low, but the evidence does not specify what operating assumptions the market already expects.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results remain weak and the company has missed across recent quarters, while the estimated miss probability is 35%. Revenue was stable at about $6.3 million from 2026-Q1 to 2026-Q2; defense shipments grew as a share, and Plato remains on schedule for a March 2027 tape-out, but gross margin fell below management’s stated target range.

What GSI Technology Inc hinges on