Grace Therapeutics Inc (GRCE)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$1.93+0.52%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Grace Therapeutics Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	2.3M
EPS	—	-0.15
Annual ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	5M
EPS	—	-0.675
Annual ending 2028-03-31
Revenue	—	5M
EPS	—	-0.465

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve FDA approval for GTx-104	Grace aims to get FDA approval for GTx-104.	Under Pressure	FDA approval not obtained by 2026-Q4	FDA approval not obtained by 2026-Q4 target FDA CRL received April 23, 2026; manufacturing setback threatens launch; NDA resubmission path unclear for 2026. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management has consistently emphasized addressing the FDA's Complete Response Letter items and resubmitting the NDA for GTx-104. The company is executing a dual-source manufacturing strategy to mitigate risks, with timing dependent on manufacturing site readiness. This priority is actively pursued with clear milestones, indicating delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain stable leadership team	A supporting condition in Grace Therapeutics Inc's published investment case. The stated target is No major executive departures over next 4 quarters.	Intact	Major executive departures occur	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-Q2. Management disclosed a leadership change with the departure of the Vice President of Clinical Operations. No further details on broader leadership stability were provided. The priority is newly stated with limited information on follow-through. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Reduce operating losses to negative $3.0M	Operating losses are shrinking from $4.8M to $3.0M.	Under Pressure	Operating losses exceed -3.0 million USD by 2026-Q4	Operating income: $-15.917M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: Operating losses <= -3.0 million USD by 2026-Q4. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 13, 2026-15,917,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c033093e-3c14-4b7c-902d-af7a810ad52a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. The company continues to manage operating losses and cash burn, with net losses increasing to $15.8 million in 2026-Q2 from $3.4 million in 2025-Q2, reflecting impairment charges. Operating income remains negative around $3 million per quarter. Cash used in operations was $3.2 million in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows ongoing losses but management maintains focus on cost control. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Improve cash from operations to negative $1.7M	Cash burn is improving from negative $4.1M to negative $1.7M.	Broken	Cash from operations worse than -1.7 million USD by 2026-Q4	Cash from operations: $-3.221M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations >= -1.7 million USD by 2026-Q4. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 13, 2026-3,221,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2027-Q1. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. The company continues to manage operating losses and cash burn, with net losses increasing to $15.8 million in 2026-Q2 from $3.4 million in 2025-Q2, reflecting impairment charges. Operating income remains negative around $3 million per quarter. Cash used in operations was $3.2 million in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows ongoing losses but management maintains focus on cost control. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	0	0
2026-06-01	2	0	0
2026-07-01	2	0	0
2026-08-01	2	0	0
2026-09-01	2	0	0
2026-10-01	2	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve FDA approval for GTx-104Published status: Under Pressure
Maintain stable leadership teamQualitative condition
Reduce operating losses to negative $3.0MPublished status: Under Pressure
Improve cash from operations to negative $1.7MPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 12, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-63.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Grace Therapeutics Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative, development-stage biotech business, not a proven durable compounder. The multi-year thesis is in a watch state, with low confidence, weak recent performance, and high risk.

What's priced into Grace Therapeutics Inc

The evidence snapshot provides no valuation or market-expectations data, so whether GRCE is cheap or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. It does show recent pressure after an earnings miss and a private placement, but not what expectations are already reflected in the valuation.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the elevated risk of an earnings miss reflects erratic surprises and GRCE's smaller size. The company remains loss-making, and cash use continues; the latest quarter also included a larger net loss tied to impairment charges. Over the multi-year view, progress depends on addressing FDA feedback and completing the manufacturing steps needed to resubmit the GTx-104 application.

What Grace Therapeutics Inc hinges on

A favorable scenario depends on GTx-104 regulatory progress, manufacturing readiness, and sufficient cash runway. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data could add pressure, while stronger results and guidance from healthcare sector leaders could support sector momentum. The outlook also hinges on whether management can control cash burn while pursuing its stated priorities.