Gulfport Energy Corp. (GPOR)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$166.18+3.54%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Gulfport Energy Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.8%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

25.76 → 25.29 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	401.01M
EPS	—	6.659
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.51B
EPS	—	23.166
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.47B
EPS	—	25.29

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capex within $400M-$430M range in 2026	The company maintains disciplined capital spending with 2026 capex guided between $400M and $430M.	Broken	capex exceeds $430M or falls below $400M in FY26	Capital expenditures: $174.954M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $400M-$430M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026174,954,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain or grow revenue near $1.56B in FY26	A primary condition in Gulfport Energy Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.56B.	Broken	revenue falls below $1.56B in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Production averaged 996.8 MMcfe/day in 2026-Q1 and 962.8 MMcfe/day in 2026-Q2, with capital expenditures increasing from $121.7 million to $148.6 million. Management continues to execute the 2026 development plan with operational progress and capital investment, showing delivery consistent with stated strategy. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Effective execution of share buyback program	It also supports shareholders through a share buyback program.	Intact	buyback program halted or materially reduced	Buyback active (84,416 shares @ $204.22) vs ongoing target GPOR announced a share buyback of 84,416 shares at $204.22 per share on March 3, 2026. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$25.29

$28.59 → $25.29 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.47B

Unavailable → $1.47B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$28.59	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-07-25	$28.59	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-07-26	$28.52	Unavailable	13 / 4
2026-07-27	$28.43	Unavailable	13 / 4
2026-07-28	$28.15	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-07-29	$28.43	Unavailable	13 / 4
2026-07-30	$28.15	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-07-31	$28.52	Unavailable	13 / 4
2026-08-01	$28.15	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-08-02	$28.52	Unavailable	13 / 4
2026-08-03	$28.52	Unavailable	13 / 4
2026-08-04	$28.52	Unavailable	13 / 4
2026-08-05	$28.59	$1,602,247,870	13 / 5
2026-08-06	$28.15	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-08-07	$27.66	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-08	$28.00	$1,587,316,180	13 / 5
2026-08-09	$28.00	$1,587,316,180	13 / 5
2026-08-10	$28.00	$1,587,316,180	13 / 5
2026-08-12	$28.01	$1,587,316,180	13 / 5
2026-08-13	$27.66	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-14	$27.66	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-15	$27.66	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-16	$27.66	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-17	$27.66	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-18	$27.66	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-19	$27.66	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-20	$27.63	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-21	$27.48	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-22	$27.48	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-23	$27.48	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-24	$27.48	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-25	$27.11	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-26	$27.11	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-27	$27.11	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-28	$27.11	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-29	$27.11	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-08-30	$27.11	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-08-31	$27.11	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-01	$27.11	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-02	$27.11	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-03	$27.11	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-04	$27.11	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-05	$27.11	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-06	$27.11	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-07	$26.76	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-08	$26.76	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-09	$26.73	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-10	$26.73	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-11	$26.41	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-12	$26.41	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-13	$26.41	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-14	$26.41	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-15	$26.03	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-16	$25.76	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-17	$25.76	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-18	$25.76	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-19	$25.76	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-20	$25.76	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-21	$25.76	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-22	$25.76	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-23	$25.76	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-24	$25.76	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-25	$25.82	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-26	$25.59	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-27	$25.59	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-28	$25.59	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-29	$25.59	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-09-30	$25.59	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-10-01	$25.59	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-10-02	$25.66	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-10-03	$25.66	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-10-04	$25.73	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-10-05	$25.73	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-10-06	$25.75	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-10-07	$25.53	Unavailable	8 / 3
2026-10-08	$25.38	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-09	$25.38	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-10	$25.38	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-11	$25.19	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-12	$25.19	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-13	$25.53	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-14	$25.42	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-15	$25.36	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-16	$25.24	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-17	$25.24	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-10-18	$25.60	$1,474,770,565	9 / 5
2026-10-19	$25.60	$1,474,770,565	9 / 5
2026-10-20	$25.78	$1,474,770,565	9 / 5
2026-10-21	$25.29	$1,474,770,565	9 / 5
2026-10-22	$25.29	$1,474,770,565	9 / 5
2026-10-23	$25.29	$1,474,770,565	9 / 5
2026-10-24	$25.29	$1,474,770,565	9 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	6	0
2026-06-01	8	5	0
2026-07-01	8	5	0
2026-08-01	8	5	0
2026-09-01	8	7	1
2026-10-01	7	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

ScotiabankOct 14

$217.00New observation · no comparable prior

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 7 · prior May 27

$252.00 → $237.00-6.0%

UBSOct 6 · prior Sep 14

$223.00 → $218.00-2.2%

JefferiesSep 25

$180.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$138.60$277.20

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capex within $400M-$430M range in 2026Published status: Broken
Maintain or grow revenue near $1.56B in FY26Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-32.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Gulfport Energy Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a cyclical energy producer, with a multi-year view tied to Utica development and sector conditions. The thesis is intact and the signal has improved from mixed to mildly favorable, though recent earnings misses keep confidence at a medium level.

What's priced into Gulfport Energy Corp.

GPOR is described as cheap versus peers, while the pricing signal is considered justified rather than unusually fragile. The evidence does not provide a clear account of the market’s specific earnings assumptions, so the expectations gap is uncertain.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, consecutive earnings misses and a 38% estimated miss probability point to continued execution risk. Management is investing in the 2026 development plan and expanding Utica acreage, while production was lower in the second quarter than the first; share repurchases remained active.

What Gulfport Energy Corp. hinges on

The next call is an important test: a guidance cut would add to the recent execution concerns. Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis also depends on management extending Utica inventory while delivering its development plan, and on energy-sector conditions that may be signaled by COP, EOG, and OXY.