Gossamer Bio, Inc. (GOSS)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$9.61+1.59%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Gossamer Bio, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	3.01M
EPS	—	-3.693
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	40.51M
EPS	—	-15.621
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	16.73M
EPS	—	-10.521

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Manage capital with new convertible notes	New convertible notes help manage its capital.	Intact	Convertible notes fail to improve capital allocation	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 disclosures including 2026-Q1 and two 2026-06 and 2026-08 press releases. The company exchanged approximately $181.1 million of $200 million outstanding notes for new notes and equity, reducing debt by about $115.9 million and extending maturity to 2030. This capital allocation priority is delivering with a strengthened balance sheet and extended debt maturity. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Submit NDA for seralutinib in pulmonary arterial hypertension	A primary condition in Gossamer Bio, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Submit NDA by September 2026.	Intact	NDA submission delayed beyond September 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 distinct disclosures including 2026-Q1 and a later 2026-08-13 press release. Management expects to submit an NDA for seralutinib in PAH in September 2026 following a Pre-NDA Type B meeting. The FDA meeting minutes characterized statistical significance as review issues, supporting the planned submission. The trajectory is delivering as the company remains on track for the planned NDA submission. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Stabilize or grow revenue	A primary condition in Gossamer Bio, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Revenue growth >= -3% next year.	Broken	Revenue growth falls below -3% next year	Revenue growth: -19.59% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Revenue growth >= -3% next year. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Aug 13, 2026-19.592654 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 93d29748-914e-49e5-bf0a-905887f015ea. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Announce and execute share buyback program	The company started a share buyback program recently.	Under Pressure	No buyback program announced or executed by mid-2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in mid-2026. Management announced a share buyback program concurrent with the convertible note exchange. No financial data on buyback execution or magnitude is available, so the trajectory is pending further disclosure. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$-0.09 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.02B

$0.05B → $0.02B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.09	$52,996,167	5 / 5
2026-07-25	$-0.09	$52,996,167	5 / 5
2026-07-26	$-0.09	$52,996,170	7 / 6
2026-07-27	$-0.09	$52,996,167	5 / 5
2026-07-28	$-0.09	$52,996,170	7 / 6
2026-07-29	$-0.09	$53,279,500	5 / 5
2026-07-30	$-0.09	$53,279,500	7 / 6
2026-07-31	$-0.09	$53,279,500	5 / 5
2026-08-01	$-0.09	$53,279,500	5 / 5
2026-08-02	$-0.09	$53,279,500	7 / 6
2026-08-03	$-0.09	$53,279,500	7 / 6
2026-08-04	$-0.09	$53,279,500	7 / 6
2026-08-05	$-0.09	$53,279,500	7 / 6
2026-08-06	$-0.09	$53,279,500	7 / 6
2026-08-07	$-0.09	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-08	$-0.09	$53,279,500	7 / 6
2026-08-09	$-0.09	$53,279,500	7 / 6
2026-08-10	$-0.09	$53,279,500	7 / 6
2026-08-12	$-0.09	$53,279,500	7 / 6
2026-08-13	$-0.09	$53,279,500	7 / 6
2026-08-14	$-0.09	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-15	$-0.09	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-16	$-0.09	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-17	$-0.09	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-18	$-0.09	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-19	$-0.09	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-20	$-0.17	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-21	$-0.17	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-22	$-0.17	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-23	$-0.17	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-24	$-0.17	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-25	$-0.17	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-26	$-0.17	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-27	$-0.17	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-28	$-0.17	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$16,726,856	4 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$16,726,856	4 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$16,726,856	4 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$16,726,856	4 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$16,726,856	4 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$16,726,856	4 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$16,726,856	4 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$16,726,856	4 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$16,726,856	4 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$16,726,856	4 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	5	1
2026-06-01	2	4	1
2026-07-01	3	4	1
2026-08-01	3	3	1
2026-09-01	3	3	1
2026-10-01	4	3	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Manage capital with new convertible notesDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Submit NDA for seralutinib in pulmonary arterial hypertensionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Stabilize or grow revenuePublished status: Broken
Announce and execute share buyback programPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-97.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Gossamer Bio, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

GOSS is a high-risk, loss-making biotechnology company whose long-term thesis depends on drug development and future commercial progress. The thesis is currently intact, but confidence is medium and management execution has been volatile.

What's priced into Gossamer Bio, Inc.

GOSS is valued at a premium to peers, with optionality, or the possibility of future value from uncertain opportunities, driving the gap between valuation and fundamentals. The evidence labels expectations as unjustified, while model confidence is low, so the market’s assumptions are difficult to assess precisely.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, earnings risk is elevated after a run of misses, and a guidance cut would add pressure to execution. Management remains on track for a planned September 2026 regulatory filing for seralutinib in PAH, while debt restructuring extended maturities; however, collaboration revenue declined from the first to the second quarter of 2026.

What Gossamer Bio, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on progress with the seralutinib filing, steadier execution, and whether collaboration revenue can recover. A guidance cut or a weaker jobs trend could worsen the backdrop, while strong results and higher guidance from healthcare peers could support sector momentum.