Gentex (GNTX)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$20.66-4.97%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Gentex’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-2.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.21 → 2.15 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	671.05M
EPS	—	0.517
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	About $2.65B	2.66B
EPS	—	2.042
Capital expenditure	$100M–$115M	—
Gross margin	34%–34.5%	—
Operating expenses	$395M–$410M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.79B
EPS	—	2.155

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain dividend payments at $0.12 per share	A supporting condition in Gentex's published investment case. The stated target is dividend per share >= $0.12.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.12	Dividend per share: $0.12 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: dividend per share >= $0.12. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20260.12 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9d6d8b4c-5679-4339-969f-75206a7765f1. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross margin near 34-35%	A primary condition in Gentex's published investment case. The stated target is >= 34% gross margin.	Intact	gross margin falls below 33.5%	Gross margin: 37% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 34% gross margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202637.002585 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9d6d8b4c-5679-4339-969f-75206a7765f1. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves	A supporting condition in Gentex's published investment case. The stated target is operating income >= $310M in FY25.	Intact	operating income falls below $300M in FY25	Operating income: $141.338M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating income >= $310M in FY25. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026141,338,394 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9d6d8b4c-5679-4339-969f-75206a7765f1. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows about 5% annually	Gentex grows revenue about 5% yearly, with Q1 revenue up 17%.	Under Pressure	revenue falls below $2.5B in FY26	Revenue: $651.3M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.7B revenue in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026651,299,705 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9d6d8b4c-5679-4339-969f-75206a7765f1. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.15

$2.22 → $2.15 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.79B

$2.83B → $2.79B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.22	$2,826,072,920	6 / 8
2026-07-25	$2.22	$2,826,072,920	6 / 8
2026-07-26	$2.22	$2,826,072,920	6 / 8
2026-07-27	$2.21	$2,822,623,901	5 / 6
2026-07-28	$2.20	$2,819,828,850	6 / 8
2026-07-29	$2.21	$2,822,623,901	5 / 6
2026-07-30	$2.20	$2,819,828,850	6 / 8
2026-07-31	$2.22	$2,811,976,350	6 / 8
2026-08-01	$2.23	$2,813,706,758	5 / 6
2026-08-02	$2.23	$2,813,706,758	5 / 6
2026-08-03	$2.22	$2,811,976,350	6 / 8
2026-08-04	$2.23	$2,813,706,758	5 / 6
2026-08-05	$2.22	$2,811,976,350	6 / 8
2026-08-06	$2.22	$2,811,976,350	6 / 8
2026-08-07	$2.23	$2,813,706,758	5 / 6
2026-08-08	$2.22	$2,811,976,350	6 / 8
2026-08-09	$2.22	$2,811,976,350	6 / 8
2026-08-10	$2.23	$2,813,706,758	5 / 6
2026-08-12	$2.22	$2,809,485,490	7 / 8
2026-08-13	$2.22	$2,809,485,490	7 / 8
2026-08-14	$2.23	$2,813,706,758	5 / 6
2026-08-15	$2.23	$2,813,706,758	5 / 6
2026-08-16	$2.23	$2,813,706,758	5 / 6
2026-08-17	$2.23	$2,813,706,758	5 / 6
2026-08-18	$2.23	$2,813,706,758	5 / 6
2026-08-19	$2.23	$2,813,706,758	5 / 6
2026-08-20	$2.22	$2,810,860,059	5 / 6
2026-08-21	$2.22	$2,808,019,378	5 / 6
2026-08-22	$2.22	$2,808,019,378	5 / 6
2026-08-23	$2.22	$2,808,019,378	5 / 6
2026-08-24	$2.22	$2,808,019,378	5 / 6
2026-08-25	$2.22	$2,808,019,378	5 / 6
2026-08-26	$2.22	$2,808,019,378	5 / 6
2026-08-27	$2.22	$2,808,019,378	5 / 6
2026-08-28	$2.22	$2,808,019,378	5 / 6
2026-08-29	$2.22	$2,808,019,378	5 / 6
2026-08-30	$2.21	$2,810,105,092	5 / 6
2026-08-31	$2.21	$2,810,105,092	5 / 6
2026-09-01	$2.21	$2,810,057,323	5 / 6
2026-09-02	$2.21	$2,810,057,323	5 / 6
2026-09-03	$2.21	$2,810,057,323	5 / 6
2026-09-04	$2.21	$2,810,057,323	5 / 6
2026-09-05	$2.21	$2,810,057,323	5 / 6
2026-09-06	$2.21	$2,810,057,323	5 / 6
2026-09-07	$2.21	$2,810,057,323	5 / 6
2026-09-08	$2.21	$2,810,057,323	5 / 6
2026-09-09	$2.21	$2,810,057,323	5 / 6
2026-09-10	$2.21	$2,810,057,323	5 / 6
2026-09-11	$2.21	$2,810,057,323	5 / 6
2026-09-12	$2.21	$2,810,057,323	5 / 6
2026-09-13	$2.21	$2,810,057,323	5 / 6
2026-09-14	$2.21	$2,810,057,323	5 / 6
2026-09-15	$2.21	$2,810,057,323	5 / 6
2026-09-16	$2.21	$2,810,105,092	5 / 6
2026-09-17	$2.21	$2,810,105,092	5 / 6
2026-09-18	$2.21	$2,810,105,092	5 / 6
2026-09-19	$2.21	$2,810,105,092	5 / 6
2026-09-20	$2.21	$2,810,105,092	5 / 6
2026-09-21	$2.21	$2,810,105,092	5 / 6
2026-09-22	$2.21	$2,810,105,092	5 / 6
2026-09-23	$2.21	$2,810,105,092	5 / 6
2026-09-24	$2.21	$2,810,105,092	5 / 6
2026-09-25	$2.21	$2,810,105,092	5 / 6
2026-09-26	$2.21	$2,810,105,092	5 / 6
2026-09-27	$2.21	$2,810,105,092	5 / 6
2026-09-28	$2.21	$2,810,105,092	5 / 6
2026-09-29	$2.21	$2,810,105,092	5 / 6
2026-09-30	$2.21	$2,810,105,092	5 / 6
2026-10-01	$2.21	$2,810,105,092	5 / 6
2026-10-02	$2.21	$2,810,105,092	5 / 6
2026-10-03	$2.21	$2,810,190,337	5 / 6
2026-10-04	$2.21	$2,810,190,337	5 / 6
2026-10-05	$2.21	$2,810,190,337	5 / 6
2026-10-06	$2.21	$2,810,190,337	5 / 6
2026-10-07	$2.20	$2,808,932,765	5 / 6
2026-10-08	$2.19	$2,809,190,035	5 / 6
2026-10-09	$2.19	$2,809,190,035	5 / 6
2026-10-10	$2.19	$2,809,190,035	5 / 6
2026-10-11	$2.19	$2,809,190,035	5 / 6
2026-10-12	$2.19	$2,809,190,035	5 / 6
2026-10-13	$2.19	$2,809,190,035	5 / 6
2026-10-14	$2.19	$2,809,190,035	5 / 6
2026-10-15	$2.19	$2,809,190,035	5 / 6
2026-10-16	$2.19	$2,809,190,035	5 / 6
2026-10-17	$2.19	$2,809,190,035	5 / 6
2026-10-18	$2.19	$2,809,190,035	5 / 6
2026-10-19	$2.19	$2,809,190,035	5 / 6
2026-10-20	$2.19	$2,809,190,035	5 / 6
2026-10-21	$2.18	$2,801,047,178	5 / 6
2026-10-22	$2.18	$2,801,047,178	5 / 6
2026-10-23	$2.18	$2,801,047,178	5 / 6
2026-10-24	$2.15	$2,794,042,164	5 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	5	0
2026-06-01	4	5	0
2026-07-01	4	6	0
2026-08-01	3	6	0
2026-09-01	3	6	0
2026-10-01	3	6	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Goldman SachsOct 6

$20.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$11.00$22.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain dividend payments at $0.12 per shareDividend per share: $0.12 per share
Gross margin near 34-35%Gross margin: 37%
Operating income improvesOperating income: $141.338M
Revenue grows about 5% annuallyPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-21.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Gentex outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a relatively steady automotive technology and product-mix story, with diversification beyond automotive as a supporting theme. The long-term thesis is intact, though the latest results weakened recent momentum and the near-term picture is less favorable.

What's priced into Gentex

The evidence describes GNTX as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding. The priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility, but the evidence does not specify the market’s exact assumptions.

What the fundamentals likely do

In the near term, the October earnings miss and the drop in company momentum put more weight on the next guidance update. In 2026-Q3, Premium Audio grew and North American automotive revenue increased, but total sales and gross margin were lower year over year; operating expenses also declined. Repurchases continued, while margin progress remained mixed amid commodity and sales-mix pressure.

What Gentex hinges on

The next call is a key swing factor: a guidance cut would signal weaker execution, while stable guidance would help test whether the recent miss is limited. Over the multi-year view, the thesis also depends on whether product mix and diversification keep progressing and whether gross margin improves. Results and guidance from sector bellwethers could strengthen or weaken the sector backdrop.