Global Net Lease, Inc. (GNL)

NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-10-23

$7.20-1.10%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Global Net Lease, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	116.86M
EPS	—	0.013
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	453.81M
EPS	—	-0.093
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	473.92M
EPS	—	-0.035

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA within 6.5x to 6.9x	A primary condition in Global Net Lease, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 6.5x to 6.9x Net Debt/EBITDA.	Intact	Net Debt to EBITDA remains above 7.0x at FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Close Modiv acquisition adding $535M assets and 4% AFFO accretion	The Modiv acquisition adds $535 million in industrial assets and boosts earnings by 4%.	Recovered	Modiv acquisition fails to close by Q3 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Reduce office asset exposure to ~21%	Global Net Lease is reducing office exposure from 26% to about 21%.	Intact	office exposure remains above 23% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Repurchase 19.7 million shares at average price ~$8.05	Management repurchased 19.7 million shares at an average price of $8.05.	Intact	repurchases fall below 15 million shares by Q4 2026	Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$0.47B

Unavailable → $0.47B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$472,358,200	2 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$472,358,200	2 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$466,230,000	2 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$472,358,200	2 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$472,358,200	2 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$472,358,200	2 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$472,358,200	2 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$466,230,000	2 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$466,230,000	2 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$472,358,200	2 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$472,358,200	2 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$472,358,200	2 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$466,230,000	2 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$467,901,429	2 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$471,892,000	2 / 6
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$471,892,000	2 / 6
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$471,892,000	2 / 6
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$467,901,429	2 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$467,901,429	2 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$467,901,429	2 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$467,901,429	2 / 6
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$467,901,429	2 / 6
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$467,901,429	2 / 6
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$467,901,429	2 / 6
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$467,901,429	2 / 6
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$471,384,625	2 / 8
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$470,584,429	2 / 8
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$470,584,429	2 / 8
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$470,584,429	2 / 8
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$470,584,429	2 / 8
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$470,584,429	2 / 8
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$470,584,429	2 / 8
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$470,584,429	2 / 8
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$472,333,714	2 / 7
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$472,333,714	2 / 8
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$472,333,714	2 / 8
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$472,333,714	2 / 8
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$472,333,714	2 / 8
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$472,333,714	2 / 8
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$472,333,714	2 / 8
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$473,633,125	2 / 8
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$473,633,125	2 / 8
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$473,917,000	2 / 8
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$473,917,000	2 / 7
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$473,917,000	2 / 7
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$473,917,000	2 / 7
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$473,917,000	2 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	3	1
2026-06-01	5	2	1
2026-07-01	5	2	1
2026-08-01	6	3	1
2026-09-01	6	2	1
2026-10-01	6	2	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA within 6.5x to 6.9xDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Close Modiv acquisition adding $535M assets and 4% AFFO accretionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Reduce office asset exposure to ~21%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Repurchase 19.7 million shares at average price ~$8.05Required source inputs unavailable

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Global Net Lease, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

GNL is a real estate recovery and execution story, rather than a proven earnings compounder, with recent performance described as neutral and earnings still loss-making. The long-term thesis remains intact, though management execution has been volatile and the sector backdrop is a headwind.

What's priced into Global Net Lease, Inc.

The valuation evidence points to GNL being cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap and low fragility. The evidence does not specify exactly what operating assumptions the market has priced in, so the expectations picture is incomplete.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent financial performance is holding in the top half of the industry, and company momentum improved; management also completed an acquisition in August. Debt reduction has shown progress, while office dispositions are advancing, but the stated reduction in office exposure still depends on pending transactions.

What Global Net Lease, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on management continuing to reduce debt and office exposure while directing capital toward industrial and retail assets. A reversal of recently raised guidance would damage credibility; Fed rate cuts or continued strength from sector peers could provide a more supportive backdrop.