Galaxy Digital Inc (GLXY)

NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$14.68-3.99%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Galaxy Digital Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	9.85B
EPS	—	-0.118
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	37.29B
EPS	—	-0.568
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	43.51B
EPS	—	-0.236

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operating activities improves toward break-even	It is improving cash flow, cutting losses from $1.07 billion to $83 million.	Improving	Cash flow worsens below negative $200M next year	Cash from operations: $463.838M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations better than negative $100M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 2026463,838,370 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Galaxy maintained strong liquidity with total equity around $2.7B and cash plus stablecoins near $2.5B as of 2026-Q2. Cash from operating activities improved significantly from negative $83M in 2026-Q1 to positive $372M in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows delivering improved cash flow and liquidity management. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Successful launch and growth of new OTC derivatives desk and AI data center plans	New products and AI data center plans could boost value.	Improving	No progress or negative news on new product launches and data center plans	Qualitative: OTC desk launched, Helios ramping News confirms OTC desk launch and Helios data center progress; no negative reports on new products or infrastructure plans. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches about $4.5 billion next quarter	Galaxy Digital is growing revenue toward $4.5 billion next quarter.	Intact	Revenue falls below $4.0 billion next quarter	Revenue: $8.557B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$4.5B. Target period ends 2026-09-30; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Aug 10, 20268,557,336,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b5814e4e-8563-4229-bf1a-4ffe65c68f9f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Digital Assets adjusted gross profit grew 34% QoQ from $49M in 2026-Q1 to $66M in 2026-Q2 despite digital asset price declines. Data Centers segment revenue ramped with adjusted gross profit rising from $3M to $20M. Net loss narrowed from $(216)M to $(85)M. The trajectory shows delivering progress on revenue and profitability improvement. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.24

$0.25 → $-0.24 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$43.51B

$58.04B → $43.51B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.25	$58,040,839,326	6 / 8
2026-07-25	$0.09	$74,300,145,930	9 / 10
2026-07-26	$0.09	$74,300,145,930	9 / 10
2026-07-27	$0.25	$58,040,839,326	6 / 8
2026-07-28	$0.05	$74,055,636,130	9 / 10
2026-07-29	$0.05	$74,055,636,130	9 / 10
2026-07-30	$0.05	$74,055,636,130	9 / 10
2026-07-31	$0.24	$56,338,832,160	7 / 7
2026-08-01	$0.24	$56,338,832,160	7 / 7
2026-08-02	$0.01	$70,270,414,200	9 / 10
2026-08-03	$0.24	$53,878,680,718	7 / 7
2026-08-04	$0.01	$70,270,414,200	9 / 10
2026-08-05	$0.03	$68,071,092,340	10 / 9
2026-08-06	$0.09	$72,241,711,400	11 / 10
2026-08-07	$-0.19	$49,336,896,772	8 / 7
2026-08-08	$-0.05	$69,723,133,740	12 / 11
2026-08-09	$-0.05	$69,723,133,740	12 / 11
2026-08-10	$-0.05	$69,723,133,740	12 / 11
2026-08-12	$-0.21	$69,614,636,090	12 / 11
2026-08-13	$-0.19	$49,336,896,772	8 / 7
2026-08-14	$-0.19	$49,336,896,772	8 / 7
2026-08-15	$-0.19	$49,336,896,772	9 / 8
2026-08-16	$-0.19	$49,336,896,772	9 / 8
2026-08-17	$-0.19	$49,336,896,772	9 / 8
2026-08-18	$-0.19	$49,336,896,772	8 / 8
2026-08-19	$-0.19	$49,336,896,772	8 / 8
2026-08-20	$-0.18	$47,281,386,332	9 / 9
2026-08-21	$-0.18	$47,281,386,332	9 / 9
2026-08-22	$-0.18	$47,281,386,332	9 / 9
2026-08-23	$-0.18	$47,281,386,332	9 / 9
2026-08-24	$-0.18	$47,281,386,332	9 / 9
2026-08-25	$-0.18	$46,940,930,198	9 / 9
2026-08-26	$-0.18	$46,940,930,198	9 / 9
2026-08-27	$-0.18	$46,940,930,198	9 / 9
2026-08-28	$-0.18	$46,940,930,198	9 / 9
2026-08-29	$-0.18	$46,940,930,198	9 / 9
2026-08-30	$-0.18	$46,940,930,198	9 / 9
2026-08-31	$-0.18	$46,940,930,198	9 / 9
2026-09-01	$-0.18	$46,940,930,198	9 / 9
2026-09-02	$-0.18	$46,940,930,198	9 / 9
2026-09-03	$-0.18	$46,940,930,198	9 / 9
2026-09-04	$-0.18	$46,940,930,198	9 / 9
2026-09-05	$-0.20	$46,872,057,840	9 / 9
2026-09-06	$-0.20	$46,872,057,840	9 / 9
2026-09-07	$-0.20	$46,872,057,840	9 / 9
2026-09-08	$-0.20	$46,872,057,840	9 / 9
2026-09-09	$-0.20	$46,872,057,840	9 / 9
2026-09-10	$-0.20	$46,872,057,840	9 / 9
2026-09-11	$-0.20	$46,872,057,840	9 / 9
2026-09-12	$-0.20	$46,872,057,840	9 / 9
2026-09-13	$-0.20	$46,872,057,840	9 / 9
2026-09-14	$-0.20	$46,872,057,840	9 / 9
2026-09-15	$-0.20	$46,872,057,840	9 / 9
2026-09-16	$-0.20	$46,872,057,840	9 / 9
2026-09-17	$-0.20	$46,872,057,840	9 / 9
2026-09-18	$-0.20	$46,872,057,840	9 / 9
2026-09-19	$-0.20	$46,872,057,840	9 / 9
2026-09-20	$-0.20	$46,872,057,840	9 / 9
2026-09-21	$-0.20	$46,872,057,840	9 / 9
2026-09-22	$-0.20	$46,872,057,840	9 / 9
2026-09-23	$-0.20	$46,872,057,840	9 / 9
2026-09-24	$-0.20	$46,872,057,840	9 / 9
2026-09-25	$-0.20	$46,872,057,840	9 / 9
2026-09-26	$-0.20	$46,872,057,840	9 / 9
2026-09-27	$-0.20	$46,872,057,840	9 / 9
2026-09-28	$-0.20	$46,872,057,840	9 / 9
2026-09-29	$-0.20	$46,872,057,840	9 / 9
2026-09-30	$-0.20	$46,872,057,840	9 / 9
2026-10-01	$-0.20	$46,872,057,664	9 / 9
2026-10-02	$-0.20	$46,872,057,664	9 / 9
2026-10-03	$-0.20	$46,872,057,664	9 / 9
2026-10-04	$-0.20	$46,872,057,664	9 / 9
2026-10-05	$-0.20	$46,872,057,664	9 / 9
2026-10-06	$-0.20	$46,872,057,664	9 / 9
2026-10-07	$-0.20	$46,872,057,664	9 / 9
2026-10-08	$-0.20	$46,872,057,664	9 / 9
2026-10-09	$-0.20	$46,872,057,664	9 / 9
2026-10-10	$-0.20	$46,872,057,664	9 / 9
2026-10-11	$-0.18	$46,281,193,031	9 / 9
2026-10-12	$-0.18	$46,281,193,031	9 / 9
2026-10-13	$-0.18	$46,281,193,031	9 / 9
2026-10-14	$-0.18	$46,281,193,031	9 / 9
2026-10-15	$-0.22	$46,901,372,534	9 / 9
2026-10-16	$-0.22	$46,901,372,534	9 / 9
2026-10-17	$-0.22	$46,901,372,534	9 / 9
2026-10-18	$-0.21	$46,841,831,172	9 / 9
2026-10-19	$-0.21	$46,841,831,172	9 / 9
2026-10-20	$-0.21	$46,841,831,172	9 / 9
2026-10-21	$-0.24	$43,983,154,249	9 / 9
2026-10-22	$-0.24	$43,983,154,249	9 / 9
2026-10-23	$-0.17	$43,983,154,249	9 / 9
2026-10-24	$-0.24	$43,507,215,788	9 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	14	2
2026-06-01	14	2
2026-07-01	14	2
2026-08-01	14	2
2026-09-01	14	2
2026-10-01	15	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Maxim GroupOct 22

$36.00New observation · no comparable prior

Piper SandlerOct 20 · prior Jul 17

$33.00 → $25.00-24.2%

Morgan StanleyOct 9 · prior Sep 3

$48.00 → $43.00-10.4%

$0$26.40$52.80

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operating activities improves toward break-evenCash from operations: $463.838M
Revenue reaches about $4.5 billion next quarterRevenue: $8.557B

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-63.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Galaxy Digital Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk growth business with exposure to digital assets and an expanding data-center operation. The thesis is on watch: execution at Helios is progressing, but recent performance remains weak and confidence is medium.

What's priced into Galaxy Digital Inc

The valuation evidence describes GLXY as cheap versus peers, with a small peer premium and a negative expectations gap, meaning expectations appear cautious relative to the model. That model has low confidence, so the valuation signal is uncertain; the evidence also does not show concentrated fragility in what is priced in.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results remain hard to judge because earnings have been erratic, though the stated miss risk is low. In 2026 Q2, digital-asset adjusted gross profit rose, data-center adjusted gross profit increased, and the net loss narrowed; Helios also delivered Phase I capacity and began Phase II construction. The multi-year case depends on turning that execution into sustained revenue and better profitability, while digital-asset market conditions and sector headwinds remain risks.

What Galaxy Digital Inc hinges on

The main swing factor is whether Helios construction, leasing, and its large power pipeline translate into durable revenue and profits. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strong results and guidance from major financial firms could support sector momentum. Lower interest rates are another stated risk for the sector.