Gaming and Leisure Properties (GLPI)

NASDAQReal EstateReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-10-23

$39.55-1.17%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Gaming and Leisure Properties’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.33 → 3.33 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	441.47M
EPS	—	0.828
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.73B
EPS	—	3.232
AFFO per share	$4.1–$4.12	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.82B
EPS	—	3.33

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operating activities reaches at least $270.2M in 2026-Q1	A supporting condition in Gaming and Leisure Properties's published investment case. The stated target is >= $270.2 million.	Intact	cash from operating activities falls below $270.2M in 2026-Q1	Cash from operations: $349.602M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $270.2 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 30, 2026349,602,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Dividend per share increases to at least $0.78 in 2026-Q1	It raised its dividend per share to $0.78 in 2026-Q1, showing steady income growth.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.78 in 2026-Q1	Dividend per share: $0.82 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.78 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 30, 20260.82 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 05c1de4b-d3e5-4e27-accb-cba1b54d4208. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income reaches at least $333.3M in 2026-Q1	Operating income rose to $333.3M in 2026-Q1, reflecting better efficiency.	Intact	operating income falls below $333.3M in 2026-Q1	Operating income: $332.392M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $333.3 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 30, 2026332,392,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 05c1de4b-d3e5-4e27-accb-cba1b54d4208. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth stays above ~6% YoY	A primary condition in Gaming and Leisure Properties's published investment case. The stated target is >= 6% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 6% next year	Revenue growth: 9.03% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 6% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20269.026378 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 05c1de4b-d3e5-4e27-accb-cba1b54d4208. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.33

$3.33 → $3.33 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.82B

$1.82B → $1.82B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.33	$1,822,376,862	6 / 13
2026-07-25	$3.33	$1,832,718,260	5 / 18
2026-07-26	$3.33	$1,832,718,260	5 / 18
2026-07-27	$3.33	$1,822,376,860	6 / 13
2026-07-28	$3.33	$1,822,376,860	6 / 13
2026-07-29	$3.33	$1,822,376,860	6 / 13
2026-07-30	$3.33	$1,832,718,260	5 / 18
2026-07-31	$3.33	$1,825,128,439	6 / 13
2026-08-01	$3.33	$1,825,128,439	6 / 13
2026-08-02	$3.33	$1,829,427,940	5 / 18
2026-08-03	$3.33	$1,829,427,940	5 / 18
2026-08-04	$3.33	$1,829,427,940	5 / 18
2026-08-05	$3.31	$1,830,283,690	5 / 18
2026-08-06	$3.31	$1,830,283,690	5 / 18
2026-08-07	$3.33	$1,826,749,494	6 / 13
2026-08-08	$3.31	$1,829,930,470	5 / 18
2026-08-09	$3.31	$1,829,930,470	5 / 18
2026-08-10	$3.33	$1,826,749,494	6 / 13
2026-08-12	$3.33	$1,826,749,494	6 / 13
2026-08-13	$3.33	$1,826,749,494	6 / 13
2026-08-14	$3.33	$1,826,749,494	6 / 13
2026-08-15	$3.33	$1,826,749,494	6 / 13
2026-08-16	$3.33	$1,826,749,494	6 / 13
2026-08-17	$3.33	$1,826,749,494	6 / 13
2026-08-18	$3.33	$1,826,749,494	6 / 13
2026-08-19	$3.33	$1,826,749,494	6 / 13
2026-08-20	$3.32	$1,827,400,086	6 / 13
2026-08-21	$3.32	$1,827,400,086	7 / 13
2026-08-22	$3.32	$1,827,400,086	7 / 13
2026-08-23	$3.32	$1,827,400,086	7 / 13
2026-08-24	$3.32	$1,827,400,086	7 / 13
2026-08-25	$3.32	$1,827,400,086	7 / 13
2026-08-26	$3.32	$1,827,011,419	7 / 13
2026-08-27	$3.32	$1,827,011,419	7 / 13
2026-08-28	$3.32	$1,827,011,419	7 / 13
2026-08-29	$3.32	$1,828,773,797	7 / 13
2026-08-30	$3.32	$1,828,773,797	7 / 13
2026-08-31	$3.32	$1,828,773,797	7 / 13
2026-09-01	$3.32	$1,828,773,797	7 / 13
2026-09-02	$3.32	$1,828,773,797	7 / 13
2026-09-03	$3.33	$1,827,174,724	7 / 13
2026-09-04	$3.33	$1,827,188,282	7 / 13
2026-09-05	$3.33	$1,827,188,282	7 / 13
2026-09-06	$3.33	$1,827,188,282	7 / 13
2026-09-07	$3.33	$1,827,188,282	7 / 13
2026-09-08	$3.33	$1,827,188,282	7 / 13
2026-09-09	$3.33	$1,827,188,282	7 / 13
2026-09-10	$3.33	$1,827,188,282	7 / 13
2026-09-11	$3.33	$1,827,358,260	7 / 13
2026-09-12	$3.33	$1,827,358,260	7 / 13
2026-09-13	$3.33	$1,827,358,260	7 / 13
2026-09-14	$3.33	$1,827,358,260	7 / 13
2026-09-15	$3.33	$1,827,358,260	7 / 13
2026-09-16	$3.33	$1,827,358,260	7 / 13
2026-09-17	$3.33	$1,827,358,260	7 / 13
2026-09-18	$3.33	$1,827,358,260	7 / 13
2026-09-19	$3.33	$1,827,358,260	7 / 13
2026-09-20	$3.33	$1,824,663,714	7 / 13
2026-09-21	$3.33	$1,824,663,714	7 / 13
2026-09-22	$3.33	$1,824,663,714	7 / 13
2026-09-23	$3.33	$1,824,663,714	7 / 13
2026-09-24	$3.33	$1,824,663,714	7 / 13
2026-09-25	$3.33	$1,824,330,339	7 / 13
2026-09-26	$3.33	$1,824,330,339	7 / 13
2026-09-27	$3.33	$1,824,330,339	7 / 13
2026-09-28	$3.33	$1,824,330,339	7 / 13
2026-09-29	$3.33	$1,824,330,339	7 / 13
2026-09-30	$3.33	$1,824,330,339	7 / 13
2026-10-01	$3.33	$1,824,330,339	7 / 13
2026-10-02	$3.33	$1,824,330,339	7 / 13
2026-10-03	$3.33	$1,824,330,339	7 / 13
2026-10-04	$3.33	$1,824,330,339	7 / 13
2026-10-05	$3.33	$1,824,330,339	7 / 13
2026-10-06	$3.33	$1,824,330,339	7 / 13
2026-10-07	$3.33	$1,824,330,339	7 / 13
2026-10-08	$3.33	$1,824,330,339	7 / 13
2026-10-09	$3.33	$1,824,330,339	7 / 13
2026-10-10	$3.33	$1,824,330,339	7 / 13
2026-10-11	$3.33	$1,824,330,339	7 / 13
2026-10-12	$3.33	$1,824,330,339	7 / 13
2026-10-13	$3.33	$1,824,330,339	7 / 13
2026-10-14	$3.33	$1,824,330,339	7 / 13
2026-10-15	$3.33	$1,824,330,339	7 / 13
2026-10-16	$3.33	$1,824,330,339	7 / 13
2026-10-17	$3.33	$1,824,330,339	7 / 13
2026-10-18	$3.33	$1,824,330,339	7 / 13
2026-10-19	$3.33	$1,824,330,339	7 / 13
2026-10-20	$3.33	$1,824,330,339	7 / 13
2026-10-21	$3.33	$1,824,330,339	7 / 13
2026-10-22	$3.33	$1,824,330,339	7 / 13
2026-10-23	$3.33	$1,824,330,339	7 / 13
2026-10-24	$3.33	$1,824,330,339	7 / 13

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	16	7	1
2026-06-01	16	7	1
2026-07-01	16	7	1
2026-08-01	16	7	1
2026-09-01	16	8	1
2026-10-01	15	8	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 20

$55.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysOct 20 · prior Jul 22

$50.00 → $44.00-12.0%

$0$30.25$60.50

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operating activities reaches at least $270.2M in 2026-Q1Cash from operations: $349.602M
Dividend per share increases to at least $0.78 in 2026-Q1Dividend per share: $0.82 per share
Operating income reaches at least $333.3M in 2026-Q1Operating income: $332.392M
Revenue growth stays above ~6% YoYRevenue growth: 9.03%

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-23.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Gaming and Leisure Properties outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

GLPI is a real estate income business with a growth component from development and acquisitions. Its long-term thesis is intact: recent performance has held in the top half of its industry, and management’s stated priorities are on track. Confidence is medium, while the risk label has recently moved from low to moderate.

What's priced into Gaming and Leisure Properties

GLPI is tagged as stretched and trades at a 3.2% premium to peers, so expectations are not especially low. The estimated expectations gap is 0.18, with low model confidence; valuation also reflects optionality, meaning the value of potential future growth. Fragility is low, but the evidence does not show that the premium is supported by a clear valuation cushion.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results and execution look steady: second-quarter AFFO was $304.0 million, up 10.1% year over year, and management has raised guidance. Development spending of $750 million to $800 million is planned for 2026, while management says AFFO per share growth is supported through 2027 and 2028. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and the estimated near-term miss probability is 28%, though the watch tier is quiet.

What Gaming and Leisure Properties hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on development and acquisitions continuing to support AFFO per share growth, alongside disciplined leverage and dividend growth. A reversal and guidance cut after the recent raise would damage management credibility. Fed rate cuts or stronger results and guidance from real estate peers could provide a more supportive sector backdrop.