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Gemini Space Station Inc (GEMI)
NASDAQFinancialsCapital MarketsSnapshot 2026-07-06
Watch· this week
$4.41+4.26%
Close 2026-07-06 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
The thesis is that GEMI's growth potential is strong, driven by its market position. Revenue growth is expected to improve, despite recent weak performance. The stock trades at a multiple that suggests it is undervalued compared to peers. However, if GEMI cuts guidance on the next call, it could face challenges. Peer multiples imply a price about 25% above where it trades; this read is provisional.
as of 2026-07-06
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Capital Markets
- Market cap
- $534.81M
- Employees
- 650
- IPO date
- 2025-08-15
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-13
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $4.41. As of 2026-07-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Fair value· primary
$6.18
Range $4.72 – $7.64
vs price: -29% below
Method agreement : high · 3 methods
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
3-year
$8.30consensus
Range $8.30 – $8.30
vs price: -47% below
Method agreement : medium · 1 method
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
5-year
$9.28consensus
Range $9.28 – $9.28
vs price: -52% below
Method agreement : medium · 1 method
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
medium confidence
We can't anchor a clean multiple for GEMI right now, so treat our $6.34 fair value as low-confidence (our number sits above the analyst range). Analysts target $5.00–$6.00. Note: our $6.34 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($5.00–$6.00). Not investment advice.
Multiple (multiple)
—
peer — · own history —
Premium
—
Growth the price needs
-28%
our forecast 50%
Our fair value
$6.34
range $5.67 – $7.01
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price sits about 33% below a flat-multiple fair value, while analysts forecast about 26% growth — below our forecast. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=7357).
3rd pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
Not enough signal yet.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Management & capital allocation
neutral5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=3598).
53rd pctl · Financials
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
NeutralEPS revised -10.0% / 30d, n=4for period ending 2026-09-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.55 → $-0.60 (-10.0% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · Weeklyneutral-1.3%sector vs S&P 500, 60d
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-07-06
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
Not enough price history for this read.
How much price usually moves either way.
Not enough price history for this read.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,378.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-07-06
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-07-06
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 17d
Watch for revenue growth dropping below median
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the business environment.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Gemini's revenue growth falls below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above 10% year over year.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-05-171mo agoMarkets Insider
Class action may impact investor confidence.
ChallengesUnconfirmed report
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like MS, GS, and SCHW keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting GEMI and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If GEMI raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-03-19), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If GEMI cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-03-19), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.63%, that would weigh on GEMI and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like MS, GS, and SCHW start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping GEMI and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-141mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 14, 2026, Gemini issued a press release (the “Q1 2026 Earnings Release”) announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Q1 2026 Earnings Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.3 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+6.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-07-06
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.