Six Flags (FUN)

Q: What's priced into Six Flags (FUN) stock?

The valuation evidence points to FUN being cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations remain cautious. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility; valuation has risen recently, but the evidence does not show that the weak operating picture is fully resolved.

Q: What does the Six Flags (FUN) outlook hinge on?

The central question is whether management can sustain better attendance, revenue growth, and cost discipline while improving the broader weak financial record. A guidance cut would weaken the case, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those companies could remove that support.

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-10-23

$6.77-6.49%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Six Flags’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-28
Revenue	—	633.55M
EPS	—	-0.43
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.89B
EPS	—	-3.078
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.99B
EPS	—	-0.227

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Operating income better than -$312M in 2026-Q1	A primary condition in Six Flags's published investment case. The stated target is > -312243000.	Under Pressure	operating income worse than -$312M after 2026-Q1	Operating income: $88.604M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: > -312243000. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 202688,604,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 13084558-6fa7-4941-ac20-b9b2eea97151. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Management emphasized operational efficiency in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating expenses were tightly controlled with only a $1 million increase on a Same-Park Basis in 2026-Q2 and a 12% decrease in 2026-Q1 versus prior year. These cost discipline efforts support improved operating leverage and align with management's stated focus on operational rigor. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth above 1% in next 12 months	A primary condition in Six Flags's published investment case. The stated target is >1% YoY.	Broken	revenue growth falls below 1% in next 12 months	Revenue growth: -7.04% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >1% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026-7.036941 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 13084558-6fa7-4941-ac20-b9b2eea97151. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Same-Park Basis net revenues grew 2.4% from $844M in 2025-Q2 to $864M in 2026-Q2, Adjusted EBITDA rose 7% from $233M to $249M, and attendance increased 4% to 13.1M visits. Management's focus on a more concentrated park portfolio and commercial strategy is delivering improved financial results and operational momentum. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Reduce net loss to less than $270M in 2026-Q1	A primary condition in Six Flags's published investment case. The stated target is <= -270000000.	Under Pressure	net loss exceeds -$270M in any quarter after 2026-Q1	Net income: $-202.62M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: <= -270000000. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 2026-202,620,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 13084558-6fa7-4941-ac20-b9b2eea97151. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Same-Park Basis net revenues grew 2.4% from $844M in 2025-Q2 to $864M in 2026-Q2, Adjusted EBITDA rose 7% from $233M to $249M, and attendance increased 4% to 13.1M visits. Management's focus on a more concentrated park portfolio and commercial strategy is delivering improved financial results and operational momentum. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Complete leadership changes and stabilize team by end 2026	A supporting condition in Six Flags's published investment case. The stated target is stable leadership team by 2026-Q4.	Under Pressure	key executive departures continue past 2026-Q4	2 key exec departures (COO, CFO) vs stable team target COO departure and external CFO hire indicate ongoing leadership instability, failing the stabilization target. Context reviewed through Oct 24, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Leadership transition was newly stated in 2026-Q2 and 2026-Q3 with appointments of Mark Pauls as COO and Ash Walia as CFO. These changes aim to strengthen operational and financial leadership. While no direct financial impact is yet measurable, management highlights these hires as key to advancing operational excellence and financial discipline. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.23

$0.44 → $-0.23 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.99B

$3.15B → $2.99B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.44	$3,152,067,230	6 / 13
2026-07-25	$0.44	$3,149,067,230	6 / 13
2026-07-26	$0.44	$3,149,067,230	6 / 13
2026-07-27	$0.43	$3,130,706,201	6 / 9
2026-07-28	$0.43	$3,130,706,201	6 / 9
2026-07-29	$0.44	$3,146,651,920	6 / 13
2026-07-30	$0.36	$3,125,290,893	6 / 9
2026-07-31	$0.44	$3,146,651,920	6 / 13
2026-08-01	$0.36	$3,125,290,893	6 / 9
2026-08-02	$0.44	$3,126,091,110	6 / 13
2026-08-03	$0.44	$3,126,091,110	6 / 13
2026-08-04	$0.44	$3,126,091,110	6 / 13
2026-08-05	$0.44	$3,126,091,110	6 / 13
2026-08-06	$0.44	$3,126,091,110	6 / 13
2026-08-07	$0.42	$3,122,288,707	6 / 9
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$3,088,880,210	3 / 13
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$3,088,880,210	3 / 13
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$3,088,880,210	3 / 13
2026-08-12	$0.07	$3,040,536,480	5 / 13
2026-08-13	$0.07	$3,040,536,480	5 / 13
2026-08-14	$0.42	$3,122,288,707	6 / 9
2026-08-15	$0.42	$3,122,288,707	6 / 9
2026-08-16	$0.42	$3,122,288,707	6 / 9
2026-08-17	$0.42	$3,122,288,707	6 / 9
2026-08-18	$0.42	$3,122,288,707	6 / 9
2026-08-19	$0.42	$3,122,288,707	6 / 9
2026-08-20	$-0.08	$3,036,634,528	6 / 9
2026-08-21	$-0.08	$3,036,634,528	6 / 9
2026-08-22	$-0.08	$3,036,634,528	6 / 9
2026-08-23	$-0.08	$3,036,634,528	6 / 9
2026-08-24	$-0.08	$3,036,634,528	6 / 9
2026-08-25	$-0.08	$3,036,634,528	6 / 9
2026-08-26	$-0.08	$3,036,634,528	6 / 9
2026-08-27	$-0.08	$3,036,634,528	6 / 9
2026-08-28	$-0.08	$3,036,634,528	6 / 9
2026-08-29	$-0.08	$3,036,634,528	6 / 9
2026-08-30	$-0.08	$3,036,634,528	6 / 9
2026-08-31	$-0.08	$3,036,634,528	6 / 9
2026-09-01	$-0.08	$3,036,634,528	6 / 9
2026-09-02	$-0.08	$3,036,634,528	6 / 9
2026-09-03	$-0.08	$3,036,634,528	6 / 9
2026-09-04	$-0.08	$3,036,634,528	6 / 9
2026-09-05	$-0.10	$3,028,237,180	6 / 9
2026-09-06	$-0.10	$3,028,237,180	6 / 9
2026-09-07	$-0.10	$3,028,237,180	6 / 9
2026-09-08	$-0.10	$3,028,237,180	6 / 9
2026-09-09	$-0.10	$3,028,237,180	6 / 9
2026-09-10	$-0.10	$3,028,237,180	6 / 9
2026-09-11	$-0.16	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-12	$-0.16	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-13	$-0.16	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-14	$-0.16	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-15	$-0.16	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-16	$-0.16	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-17	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-18	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-19	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-20	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-21	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-22	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-23	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-24	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-25	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-26	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-27	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-28	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-29	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-30	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-10-01	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-10-02	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-10-03	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-10-04	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-10-05	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-10-06	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-10-07	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-10-08	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-10-09	$-0.16	$3,017,659,965	6 / 9
2026-10-10	$-0.16	$3,017,659,965	6 / 9
2026-10-11	$-0.16	$3,017,659,965	6 / 9
2026-10-12	$-0.16	$3,017,659,965	6 / 9
2026-10-13	$-0.16	$3,017,659,965	6 / 9
2026-10-14	$-0.16	$3,017,659,965	6 / 9
2026-10-15	$-0.16	$3,017,659,965	6 / 9
2026-10-16	$-0.16	$3,017,659,965	6 / 9
2026-10-17	$-0.16	$3,017,659,965	6 / 9
2026-10-18	$-0.19	$3,006,651,730	6 / 9
2026-10-19	$-0.19	$3,006,651,730	6 / 9
2026-10-20	$-0.19	$3,006,651,730	6 / 9
2026-10-21	$-0.19	$3,006,651,730	6 / 9
2026-10-22	$-0.19	$3,003,067,416	6 / 9
2026-10-23	$-0.23	$2,993,624,558	6 / 9
2026-10-24	$-0.23	$2,993,624,558	6 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	4	1
2026-06-01	9	4	0
2026-07-01	9	5	0
2026-08-01	9	5	1
2026-09-01	8	5	1
2026-10-01	8	5	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 21 · prior Aug 7

$10.00 → $5.00-50.0%

GuggenheimOct 21 · prior Jul 24

$28.00 → $17.00-39.3%

UBSOct 16 · prior Jun 11

$30.00 → $18.00-40.0%

$0$16.50$33.00

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Operating income better than -$312M in 2026-Q1Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue growth above 1% in next 12 monthsPublished status: Broken
Reduce net loss to less than $270M in 2026-Q1Published status: Under Pressure
Complete leadership changes and stabilize team by end 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-74.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Six Flags outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a turnaround-style, higher-risk business case rather than a proven durable compounder. The multi-year view is in a watch state: recent operating measures have improved, but earnings quality and recent financial performance remain weak.

What's priced into Six Flags

The valuation evidence points to FUN being cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations remain cautious. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility; valuation has risen recently, but the evidence does not show that the weak operating picture is fully resolved.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the risk of another earnings miss is elevated after recent misses and erratic surprises, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback. Over the multi-year thesis, revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and attendance improved year over year in the latest cited quarter, while operating costs were controlled. New operating and finance leaders may strengthen execution, but their financial impact is not yet measurable.

What Six Flags hinges on

The central question is whether management can sustain better attendance, revenue growth, and cost discipline while improving the broader weak financial record. A guidance cut would weaken the case, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those companies could remove that support.

Bottom line

Over the next 1 to 3 years, FUN’s thesis depends on turning recent operating progress into steadier financial performance, with meaningful near-term earnings and leadership risks. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-28
Revenue	—	633.55M
EPS	—	-0.43
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	2.89B
EPS	—	-3.078
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.99B
EPS	—	-0.227

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.23

$0.44 → $-0.23 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.99B

$3.15B → $2.99B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.44	$3,152,067,230	6 / 13
2026-07-25	$0.44	$3,149,067,230	6 / 13
2026-07-26	$0.44	$3,149,067,230	6 / 13
2026-07-27	$0.43	$3,130,706,201	6 / 9
2026-07-28	$0.43	$3,130,706,201	6 / 9
2026-07-29	$0.44	$3,146,651,920	6 / 13
2026-07-30	$0.36	$3,125,290,893	6 / 9
2026-07-31	$0.44	$3,146,651,920	6 / 13
2026-08-01	$0.36	$3,125,290,893	6 / 9
2026-08-02	$0.44	$3,126,091,110	6 / 13
2026-08-03	$0.44	$3,126,091,110	6 / 13
2026-08-04	$0.44	$3,126,091,110	6 / 13
2026-08-05	$0.44	$3,126,091,110	6 / 13
2026-08-06	$0.44	$3,126,091,110	6 / 13
2026-08-07	$0.42	$3,122,288,707	6 / 9
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$3,088,880,210	3 / 13
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$3,088,880,210	3 / 13
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$3,088,880,210	3 / 13
2026-08-12	$0.07	$3,040,536,480	5 / 13
2026-08-13	$0.07	$3,040,536,480	5 / 13
2026-08-14	$0.42	$3,122,288,707	6 / 9
2026-08-15	$0.42	$3,122,288,707	6 / 9
2026-08-16	$0.42	$3,122,288,707	6 / 9
2026-08-17	$0.42	$3,122,288,707	6 / 9
2026-08-18	$0.42	$3,122,288,707	6 / 9
2026-08-19	$0.42	$3,122,288,707	6 / 9
2026-08-20	$-0.08	$3,036,634,528	6 / 9
2026-08-21	$-0.08	$3,036,634,528	6 / 9
2026-08-22	$-0.08	$3,036,634,528	6 / 9
2026-08-23	$-0.08	$3,036,634,528	6 / 9
2026-08-24	$-0.08	$3,036,634,528	6 / 9
2026-08-25	$-0.08	$3,036,634,528	6 / 9
2026-08-26	$-0.08	$3,036,634,528	6 / 9
2026-08-27	$-0.08	$3,036,634,528	6 / 9
2026-08-28	$-0.08	$3,036,634,528	6 / 9
2026-08-29	$-0.08	$3,036,634,528	6 / 9
2026-08-30	$-0.08	$3,036,634,528	6 / 9
2026-08-31	$-0.08	$3,036,634,528	6 / 9
2026-09-01	$-0.08	$3,036,634,528	6 / 9
2026-09-02	$-0.08	$3,036,634,528	6 / 9
2026-09-03	$-0.08	$3,036,634,528	6 / 9
2026-09-04	$-0.08	$3,036,634,528	6 / 9
2026-09-05	$-0.10	$3,028,237,180	6 / 9
2026-09-06	$-0.10	$3,028,237,180	6 / 9
2026-09-07	$-0.10	$3,028,237,180	6 / 9
2026-09-08	$-0.10	$3,028,237,180	6 / 9
2026-09-09	$-0.10	$3,028,237,180	6 / 9
2026-09-10	$-0.10	$3,028,237,180	6 / 9
2026-09-11	$-0.16	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-12	$-0.16	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-13	$-0.16	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-14	$-0.16	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-15	$-0.16	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-16	$-0.16	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-17	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-18	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-19	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-20	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-21	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-22	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-23	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-24	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-25	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-26	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-27	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-28	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-29	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-09-30	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-10-01	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-10-02	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-10-03	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-10-04	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-10-05	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-10-06	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-10-07	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-10-08	$-0.15	$3,019,880,037	6 / 9
2026-10-09	$-0.16	$3,017,659,965	6 / 9
2026-10-10	$-0.16	$3,017,659,965	6 / 9
2026-10-11	$-0.16	$3,017,659,965	6 / 9
2026-10-12	$-0.16	$3,017,659,965	6 / 9
2026-10-13	$-0.16	$3,017,659,965	6 / 9
2026-10-14	$-0.16	$3,017,659,965	6 / 9
2026-10-15	$-0.16	$3,017,659,965	6 / 9
2026-10-16	$-0.16	$3,017,659,965	6 / 9
2026-10-17	$-0.16	$3,017,659,965	6 / 9
2026-10-18	$-0.19	$3,006,651,730	6 / 9
2026-10-19	$-0.19	$3,006,651,730	6 / 9
2026-10-20	$-0.19	$3,006,651,730	6 / 9
2026-10-21	$-0.19	$3,006,651,730	6 / 9
2026-10-22	$-0.19	$3,003,067,416	6 / 9
2026-10-23	$-0.23	$2,993,624,558	6 / 9
2026-10-24	$-0.23	$2,993,624,558	6 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings