Fathom Holdings Inc (FTHM)

NASDAQReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$0.20+5.33%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Fathom Holdings Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	111.42M
EPS	—	-0.02
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	460.33M
EPS	—	-0.13

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Improve cash from operating activities to positive levels	The company aims to improve cash from operations, targeting positive $3 million cash flow.	Broken	Cash from operations remains negative throughout FY26	Cash from operations: $-4.464M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations >= $3 million in any quarter in FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 13, 2026-4,464,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 1 quarter (2026-Q1). Management expressed confidence in operational improvements entering 2026. Net income improved from -$8.2M in 2026-Q1 to -$6.2M in 2026-Q2, and cash from operations improved from -$5.7M in 2025-Q1 to -$0.1M in 2026-Q1. The trajectory shows limited progress toward profitability but some improvement in cash flow. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve gross margin of $38 million	Gross margin guidance is set at $38 million for FY26.	Intact	Gross margin falls below $30 million in FY26	Gross margin: 6.49% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Gross margin >= $38 million in FY26. Target and observation currencies differ. Source published Aug 13, 20266.489722 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Continue to execute mergers and acquisitions	A primary condition in Fathom Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Complete at least one material M&A deal by end of 2026.	Under Pressure	No material M&A deal completed by end of 2026	0 deals completed vs >=1 target FTHM terminated its June 2026 merger agreement with NXH in October 2026, failing to complete a material deal. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · alphavantage

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · alphavantage
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-06-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-06-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-06-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-06-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-06-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-06-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-06-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-06-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-06-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-06-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-06-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-06-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-06-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-06-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-07-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-07-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-07-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-07-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-07-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-07-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-07-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-07-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-07-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-07-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-07-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-07-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-07-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-07-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-07-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-07-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-07-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-07-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 0

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	1	0	0
2026-06-01	1	0	0
2026-07-01	1	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Improve cash from operating activities to positive levelsPublished status: Broken
Achieve gross margin of $38 millionGross margin: 6.49%
Continue to execute mergers and acquisitionsPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 10, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-89.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Fathom Holdings Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative turnaround case in a rate-sensitive real estate sector facing a headwind. The thesis is on watch: company momentum improved, but recent performance remains weak and management execution is volatile.

What's priced into Fathom Holdings Inc

The evidence snapshot provides no valuation multiple or direct measure of market expectations, so whether FTHM is cheap or expensive versus peers is unclear. Recent financial weakness and a downward price reaction suggest pressure, but there is not enough evidence to define what expectations are already reflected.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, earnings risk is elevated, with a high estimated chance of a miss after consecutive misses. Revenue has varied, and the planned acquisition has not closed; progress toward management’s gross profit target cannot be measured from the available data. Over the multi-year view, execution depends on completing transactions and improving operating results in a difficult sector backdrop.

What Fathom Holdings Inc hinges on

A key favorable scenario is easier interest rates, which could support rate-sensitive real estate businesses. Continued strong results and guidance from sector bellwethers could also help sector momentum. The main negative swing factor is a guidance cut, while acquisition completion and evidence of progress toward the 2026 gross profit target remain important execution tests.