Five Star Bancorp (FSBC)

NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$44.09-0.16%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Five Star Bancorp’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	53.15M
EPS	—	0.862
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	197.41M
EPS	—	3.496
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	228.06M
EPS	—	3.688

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Earnings per share (EPS) growth	Five Star Bancorp grows earnings steadily with EPS rising from $0.62 to $0.87 in one year.	Intact	EPS falls below $2.90 for FY25 or below $0.87 for 2026-Q1	Diluted EPS: $0.91 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.90 EPS for FY25 and >= $2.90 EPS for FY25-Q4. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20260.91 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2a2427c9-4666-406c-9d90-e07f01991a59. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 1 supplied quarter, 2026-Q1. EPS increased from $0.62 in 2025-Q1 to $0.87 in 2026-Q1, and net income increased from $13,111,000 to $18,621,000. The reported results show delivery on earnings growth in that period, though the transcripts support this as a stated priority in only one quarter. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Leadership stability and execution	Leadership changes reinforce stable management and strategy.	Intact	Significant leadership disruption or loss of key executives	Leadership stable vs disruption target CFO expanded role; director resigned without disagreement; no key executive departures. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income growth	Operating income rose from $18.4M to $25.0M, showing strong profit growth.	Intact	Operating income falls below $25.0 million in 2026-Q1	Operating income: $26.089M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $25.0 million operating income for 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 202626,089,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth	A primary condition in Five Star Bancorp's published investment case. The stated target is >= $67.3 million revenue for 2026-Q1.	Intact	Revenue falls below $67.3 million in 2026-Q1	Revenue: $72.327M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $67.3 million revenue for 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 202672,327,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2a2427c9-4666-406c-9d90-e07f01991a59. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$3.94 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.94	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-25	$3.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-26	$3.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-27	$3.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-07-31	$3.73	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-03	$3.73	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-04	$3.73	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-05	$3.73	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-06	$3.73	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-08	$3.73	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-09	$3.73	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-10	$3.73	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-11	$3.73	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-12	$3.73	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-13	$3.73	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	3	2
2026-06-01	3	2
2026-07-01	3	2
2026-08-01	3	2
2026-09-01	3	2
2026-10-01	3	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Earnings per share (EPS) growthDiluted EPS: $0.91 per share
Operating income growthOperating income: $26.089M
Revenue growthRevenue: $72.327M

Next proof point

Oct 26, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-14.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Five Star Bancorp outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

FSBC is a financial-sector business with a growth and execution thesis, rather than a clear turnaround or deep-value case. The thesis is intact, and the recent signal shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, but its earnings quality is fragile and management signals are volatile.

What's priced into Five Star Bancorp

Valuation is neutral in the evidence, with a durable premium versus peers and an expectations gap that is close to zero. The premium appears justified by current execution, but the evidence does not point to a large gap between expectations and results.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been strong: revenue, earnings per share, and net income rose year over year, while the efficiency ratio improved. Management has also reported loan growth and a branch opening, though its stated priorities appear in only one supplied quarter. A new litigation filing is a near-term concern, and peer misses and FSBC’s smaller size add some risk despite a low estimated miss risk.

What Five Star Bancorp hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on FSBC maintaining earnings growth and expense discipline, and showing follow-through on expansion. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; rate cuts could also weigh on the financial sector. Continued strong earnings and guidance from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.