Five Star Bancorp (FSBC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-09
$45.90-1.46%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Five Star Bancorp grows earnings steadily with EPS rising from $0.62 to $0.87 in one year. Revenue increased from $57.1M to $67.3M in the same period. Operating income rose from $18.4M to $25.0M, showing strong profit growth. Leadership changes reinforce stable management and strategy.
The company faces multiple recent litigation filings that could impact costs. Analysts expect revenue to decline about 11% next year. If revenue and earnings fall below current targets, growth may stall.
The price is about 9% below our fair value near $54. The market expects about 11% revenue decline, while we see potential for earnings growth. Our view is more optimistic on revenue and EPS.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $2.90 for FY25 or below $0.87 for 2026-Q1
Continue to increase earnings per share through revenue growth and operational efficiency.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on consistent earnings growth and geographic expansion. The current thesis is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, although there are risks tied to sector performance.
The market seems to assume a neutral valuation for FSBC, reflecting a low fragility tier and a slight expectations gap. The stock is priced at a premium compared to peers, indicating that some growth is already anticipated.
Management is focused on growing earnings per share and expanding the branch network, with recent results showing strong revenue and operating income growth. However, there is a moderate risk of missing estimates due to the company's smaller size and past performance.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like HDB, IBN, and PNC. If these companies continue to beat earnings and guide higher, it could support FSBC's growth. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could impact FSBC's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats identified that could weaken the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Earnings per share grew from $0.62 in 2025-Q1 to $0.87 in 2026-Q1 and further to $0.91 in 2026-Q2. Net income also increased from $13.1 million in 2025-Q1 to $19.4 million in 2026-Q2. The trajectory is delivering consistent EPS growth as management emphasized.
“Net income increased to $19.4 million and earnings per share increased to $0.91”
“Earnings per share increased to $0.87 per share, up $0.04 from the fourth quarter of 2025”
“Earnings per share increased by $0.64 during 2025 to $2.90”
Breaks if: Significant leadership disruption or loss of key executives
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $25.0 million in 2026-Q1
Drive revenue growth to increase operating income and improve profitability.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income rose from $22.2 million in 2025-Q3 to $26.1 million in 2026-Q2, while revenue grew from $60.6 million in 2025-Q2 to $72.3 million in 2026-Q2. Net income also increased steadily. The trajectory is delivering consistent revenue and operating income growth.
“Net income increased to $19.4 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.”
“Net income was $18.6 million, up from $17.6 million for the prior quarter.”
“Net income was $17.6 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2025.”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $67.3 million in 2026-Q1
Drive revenue growth to increase operating income and improve profitability.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income rose from $22.2 million in 2025-Q3 to $26.1 million in 2026-Q2, while revenue grew from $60.6 million in 2025-Q2 to $72.3 million in 2026-Q2. Net income also increased steadily. The trajectory is delivering consistent revenue and operating income growth.
“Net income increased to $19.4 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.”
“Net income was $18.6 million, up from $17.6 million for the prior quarter.”
“Net income was $17.6 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2025.”
Overall, FSBC appears to be in a stable position for the next 1 to 3 years, but it is essential to monitor sector trends closely. Not investment advice.