FORGENT POWER SOLUTIONS INC (FPS)

NYSEIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$24.22-2.81%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge FORGENT POWER SOLUTIONS INC’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+2.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.98 → 2.02 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q2
Revenue	—	554.81M
EPS	—	0.274
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.54B
EPS	—	1.35
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	$2.4B–$2.6B	3.41B
EPS	$1.26–$1.4non-GAAP	2.022
EBITDA	$575M–$625Mnon-GAAP	—

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Operating income rises to $39.3 million in Q3 2026	Profit improved with net income rising to $18.3 million in Q3.	Broken	Operating income falls below $30 million in Q3 2026	Operating income: $39.336M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $39.3M in Q3 2026. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published May 14, 202639,336,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Mar 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1fc1fb82-46fa-4d59-8e6d-cc2a7fe9723e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income improves to $18.3 million in Q3 2026	Profit improved with net income rising to $18.3 million in Q3.	Broken	Net income falls below $10 million in Q3 2026	Net income: $18.287M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Net income >= $18.3M in Q3 2026. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published May 14, 202618,287,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Mar 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1fc1fb82-46fa-4d59-8e6d-cc2a7fe9723e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Full-year 2026 revenue at about $1.37 billion	Forgent Power Solutions raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to about $1.37 billion.	Intact	Full-year revenue falls below $1.3 billion in FY26	Revenue: $378.709M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.37B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published May 14, 2026378,709,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Mar 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1fc1fb82-46fa-4d59-8e6d-cc2a7fe9723e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$2.02

Unavailable → $2.02 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$3.41B

$2.85B → $3.41B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	1 / 9
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	2 / 9
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	2 / 9
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$2,849,088,970	2 / 9
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$2,849,059,620	1 / 9
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$2,849,059,620	1 / 9
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$2,849,059,620	1 / 9
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$2,849,059,620	1 / 9
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$2,849,059,620	1 / 9
2026-09-20	$2.01	$3,390,977,912	6 / 10
2026-09-21	$2.01	$3,390,977,912	6 / 10
2026-09-22	$1.98	$3,377,913,543	6 / 10
2026-09-23	$1.98	$3,377,913,543	6 / 10
2026-09-24	$1.98	$3,377,913,543	6 / 10
2026-09-25	$1.98	$3,377,913,543	6 / 10
2026-09-26	$1.98	$3,380,194,130	7 / 11
2026-09-27	$1.98	$3,380,194,130	7 / 11
2026-09-28	$1.98	$3,380,194,130	7 / 11
2026-09-29	$1.98	$3,380,194,130	7 / 11
2026-09-30	$1.98	$3,380,194,130	7 / 11
2026-10-01	$1.98	$3,371,102,493	7 / 11
2026-10-02	$1.98	$3,371,102,493	7 / 11
2026-10-03	$2.01	$3,400,738,552	6 / 8
2026-10-04	$2.01	$3,400,738,552	6 / 9
2026-10-05	$2.01	$3,400,738,552	6 / 9
2026-10-06	$2.01	$3,400,738,552	6 / 9
2026-10-07	$2.01	$3,396,634,865	6 / 9
2026-10-08	$2.01	$3,396,634,865	6 / 9
2026-10-09	$2.01	$3,396,634,865	6 / 9
2026-10-10	$2.01	$3,396,634,865	6 / 9
2026-10-11	$2.02	$3,406,113,552	6 / 9
2026-10-12	$2.02	$3,406,113,552	6 / 9
2026-10-13	$2.02	$3,406,113,619	6 / 9
2026-10-14	$2.02	$3,406,113,619	6 / 9
2026-10-15	$2.02	$3,406,113,619	6 / 9
2026-10-16	$2.02	$3,406,684,973	6 / 9
2026-10-17	$2.02	$3,406,684,973	6 / 9
2026-10-18	$2.02	$3,406,684,973	6 / 9
2026-10-19	$2.02	$3,406,684,973	6 / 9
2026-10-20	$2.02	$3,406,684,973	6 / 9
2026-10-21	$2.02	$3,406,684,973	6 / 9
2026-10-22	$2.02	$3,406,684,973	6 / 9
2026-10-23	$2.02	$3,406,684,907	7 / 9
2026-10-24	$2.02	$3,406,676,640	7 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	1
2026-06-01	9	1
2026-07-01	9	1
2026-08-01	9	1
2026-09-01	9	2
2026-10-01	10	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

JefferiesOct 23 · prior May 29

$56.00 → $36.00-35.7%

Morgan StanleyOct 16 · prior May 17

$51.00 → $45.00-11.8%

BernsteinOct 2

$48.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$30.80$61.60

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Operating income rises to $39.3 million in Q3 2026Published status: Broken
Net income improves to $18.3 million in Q3 2026Published status: Broken
Full-year 2026 revenue at about $1.37 billionRevenue: $378.709M

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-62.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

FORGENT POWER SOLUTIONS INC outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

FPS is a growth and capacity-expansion story, with recent financial performance in the top half of its industry. Its long-term thesis is intact, but confidence has fallen from medium to low, and the overall risk is high.

What's priced into FORGENT POWER SOLUTIONS INC

The evidence does not provide valuation multiples or a clear account of market expectations, so whether FPS looks cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. The priced-in assessment reports low fragility, but that does not resolve the uncertainty around expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Recent results show strong revenue and backlog growth, and margins improved sequentially as production increased. Powertrain Solutions growth and added capacity support the multi-year growth plan, though labor and facility ramp costs remain a constraint. Near term, a reported earnings beat is positive, but recent misses and a 41% estimated miss probability keep the next results uncertain.

What FORGENT POWER SOLUTIONS INC hinges on

The multi-year view depends on whether demand and backlog convert into revenue and whether added Powertrain Solutions capacity supports growth without weakening margins. Near term, a reversal of the guidance raise could hurt management credibility. Industrial-sector leaders' results are another swing factor, since continued strength could support the sector backdrop while weaker results could remove that tailwind.