Forestar Group, Inc. (FOR)
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-09-09
$26.91-0.63%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Recent financial performance freshly dropped to the bottom half of its industry.
Forestar aims to deliver 14,000 to 14,500 lots in fiscal 2026. Revenue guidance is maintained at $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion for 2026. The company trades cheaply with a PE of 9.22, below the sector median of 13.77. Free cash flow yield is strong at 17%.
Lot deliveries have been lowered from prior targets, showing some execution risk. Revenue growth depends on a recovering housing market, which faces sector headwinds. Profit margins and lot demand could weaken if the cycle turns down.
The price sits about 57% below our 12-month fair value near $70. Analysts expect about 23% revenue growth, which is consistent with management guidance. Our view aligns with the market on growth but sees value in the cheap valuation.
Breaks if: free cash flow yield falls below 15%
Breaks if: lot deliveries fall below 14,000 in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on real estate. The current thesis is weakened due to recent financial performance dropping in comparison to industry peers, despite management's stable execution.
The market currently prices FOR as cheap compared to its peers, with an expectations gap indicating lower anticipated performance. The valuation reflects a justified stance, given the company's fragile earnings quality.
Management is on track with revenue and lot delivery guidance, which supports a stable outlook. However, the near-term risk of missing earnings is notable, as the company operates in a high-miss-rate industry.
The future performance of FOR hinges on external factors such as potential interest rate cuts by the Fed and the performance of sector bellwethers. A negative shift in guidance could significantly impact market sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry. This change indicates a decline in the reason to own the stock. The market has not reacted strongly, with only a modest price movement compared to the S&P.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain lot delivery guidance of 14,000 to 14,500 lots for fiscal 2026 to meet market demand and maximize returns.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management maintained fiscal 2026 lot delivery guidance at 14,000 to 14,500 lots. Actual lots sold in 2026-Q2 were 3,659, slightly up from 3,605 in 2025-Q2, showing a stable trajectory aligned with guidance.
“We are maintaining our fiscal 2026 lot delivery guidance of 14,000 to 14,500 lots.”
“We are updating our fiscal 2026 lot delivery guidance to between 14,000 and 14,500 lots.”
“We still expect to deliver between 14,000 and 15,000 lots.”
Breaks if: revenue falls below $1.6 billion in FY26
Sustain fiscal 2026 revenue guidance between $1.6 billion and $1.7 billion reflecting expected lot sales and market conditions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management maintained fiscal 2026 revenue guidance at $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion. Revenues increased from $351.0 million in 2025-Q1 to $407.0 million in 2026-Q2, indicating progress consistent with guidance.
“We are maintaining our fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion.”
“We maintain our previous fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion.”
“We still expect to generate $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion of revenue.”
Breaks if: PE rises above 14 without earnings growth
In the next 1 to 3 years, FOR's performance will depend on management's execution and external economic conditions. Not investment advice.