Funko, Inc. (FNKO)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-09
$5.39-5.11%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Funko aims to grow revenue up to 3% in 2026. It targets a gross margin near 42% to 43%. Adjusted EBITDA is expected between $70M and $80M. New product launches and leadership changes support growth.
Revenue fell sharply in Q1 2026 from $273M to $201M. The company remains loss-making with negative free cash flow. Market headwinds and sector weakness may pressure margins and sales.
The market expects about 5% revenue growth but FNKO is loss-making with negative cash flow. Our fair value is $15.01, slightly above the current price, reflecting cautious optimism on recovery.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $70M in FY26
Funko aims for adjusted EBITDA between $70 million and $80 million for the full year 2026.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. FNKO has recently demonstrated strong sales and margin improvements, but it remains loss-making and faces challenges in the consumer discretionary sector.
The current valuation reflects a durable premium compared to peers, indicating that the market expects FNKO to perform better than many competitors. However, there is a slight expectations gap, suggesting that some growth may already be factored into the current valuation.
Management is on track to achieve its sales and margin targets for 2026, with recent quarters showing positive trends. However, the company remains loss-making, and the near-term risk of missing expectations is elevated due to its smaller-cap status.
The long-term thesis hinges on FNKO's ability to maintain its growth trajectory while navigating potential headwinds in the consumer discretionary sector. Key factors include the performance of sector peers and macroeconomic conditions, such as inflation rates.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. FNKO's stock dropped sharply, indicating a potential repricing. The company maintains its gross margin and EBITDA guidance for 2026. However, the recent price drop raises concerns about its credibility.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Target adjusted EBITDA in the range of $70 million to $80 million for full year 2026, improving profitability through growth and cost control.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA improved from negative $4.7 million in 2025-Q1 to $11.3 million in 2026-Q1 and surged to $40.9 million in 2026-Q2. Management raised full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance from $70M-$80M to $100M-$110M including tariff benefits, indicating delivery beyond initial targets.
“Adjusted EBITDA well above expectation; raised 2026 guidance to $100M-$110M including tariff benefit.”
“Reiterated 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $70M to $80M.”
“Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 full year $70M to $80M.”
Breaks if: Gross margin falls below 41% in FY26
Sustain gross margin in the range of 41% to 43% for full year 2026, improving through product mix and cost discipline.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Gross margin improved significantly from 40.3% in 2025-Q1 to 44.2% in 2026-Q1 and surged to 56.6% in 2026-Q2 due to tariff benefits and product mix. Management raised full-year 2026 guidance from 41%-43% to 46%-47%, reflecting delivery beyond initial targets.
“Raising 2026 full-year gross margin to 46%-47%, including $25.4 million tariff-related benefit.”
“Reiterated 2026 full-year gross margin guidance of ~41% to 43%.”
“Current Outlook 2026 Full Year Gross Margin % ~41% to 43%.”
Breaks if: Negative leadership news or failed product launches
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 0% in FY26
Maintain net sales growth flat to up 3% for full year 2026, focusing on Core Collectibles and rationalizing Loungefly SKU assortment.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Net sales grew 5.3% in 2026-Q1 and 7.4% in 2026-Q2 compared to respective prior year quarters, exceeding the flat to up 3% full-year guidance. Management reiterated this full-year net sales target each quarter and the trajectory is delivering above the stated range so far.
“Reiterating net sales guidance of flat to up 3% for 2026 full year.”
“Reiterated 2026 full-year outlook: net sales flat to up 3% vs 2025.”
“Current Outlook 2026 Full Year Net Sales flat to up 3% vs 2025.”
Overall, FNKO presents a mixed picture with some positive momentum but significant risks ahead. Not investment advice.