FMC Corporation (FMC)

NYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$5.05+0.60%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge FMC Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-31.2% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.65 → 1.14 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$840M–$900M	—
EPS	$0.05–$0.13non-GAAP	—
EBITDA	$120M–$140Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	$1.06B–$1.2B	1.03B
EPS	$1.09–$1.33non-GAAP	0.821
EBITDA	$275M–$315Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.11B
EPS	$1.19–$1.49non-GAAP	1.114
Free cash flow	$75M–$225M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.53B
EPS	—	1.137

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Execute share buyback and optimize capital	A supporting condition in FMC Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Complete $1.2 billion senior secured notes offering.	Under Pressure	Buyback program is canceled or delayed significantly	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Reduce debt by about $1 billion	FMC aims to cut $1 billion in debt to improve finances.	Under Pressure	Debt reduction target is not met by Q1 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS near $1.76 per share	The company plans to earn about $1.76 per share in 2026.	Broken	EPS falls below $1.63 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $-1.49 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS between $1.63 and $1.89 in FY26. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Jul 30, 2026-1.49 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e3747338-eae6-4678-be4b-41b560be0028. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve revenue near $3.7 billion	Sales are expected near $3.7 billion in 2026.	Broken	Revenue falls below $3.6 billion in FY26	Revenue: $867.1M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Revenue between $3.6B and $3.8B in FY26. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Jul 30, 2026867,100,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e3747338-eae6-4678-be4b-41b560be0028. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.14

$2.05 → $1.14 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.53B

$3.86B → $3.53B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.05	$3,864,828,270	15 / 13
2026-07-25	$2.02	$3,868,951,350	15 / 13
2026-07-26	$2.02	$3,868,951,350	15 / 13
2026-07-27	$2.03	$3,865,943,107	8 / 10
2026-07-28	$2.03	$3,865,943,107	8 / 10
2026-07-29	$1.98	$3,865,943,107	8 / 9
2026-07-30	$2.01	$3,855,212,880	15 / 13
2026-07-31	$1.98	$3,855,228,270	15 / 13
2026-08-01	$1.90	$3,848,930,218	8 / 9
2026-08-02	$1.67	$3,765,655,750	15 / 13
2026-08-03	$1.67	$3,765,655,750	15 / 13
2026-08-04	$1.67	$3,765,655,750	15 / 13
2026-08-05	$1.62	$3,755,378,820	15 / 13
2026-08-06	$1.70	$3,776,425,898	8 / 9
2026-08-07	$1.70	$3,776,425,898	8 / 9
2026-08-08	$1.61	$3,753,763,440	15 / 13
2026-08-09	$1.61	$3,753,763,440	15 / 13
2026-08-10	$1.70	$3,776,425,898	8 / 9
2026-08-11	$1.70	$3,776,425,898	8 / 9
2026-08-12	$1.70	$3,776,425,898	8 / 9
2026-08-13	$1.70	$3,776,425,898	8 / 9
2026-08-14	$1.70	$3,776,425,898	8 / 9
2026-08-15	$1.70	$3,776,425,898	8 / 9
2026-08-16	$1.70	$3,776,425,898	8 / 9
2026-08-17	$1.70	$3,776,425,898	8 / 9
2026-08-18	$1.70	$3,776,425,898	8 / 9
2026-08-19	$1.70	$3,776,425,898	8 / 9
2026-08-20	$1.66	$3,752,649,838	8 / 9
2026-08-21	$1.66	$3,752,649,838	8 / 9
2026-08-22	$1.66	$3,752,649,838	8 / 9
2026-08-23	$1.66	$3,752,649,838	8 / 9
2026-08-24	$1.66	$3,752,649,838	8 / 9
2026-08-25	$1.66	$3,752,649,838	8 / 9
2026-08-26	$1.67	$3,757,262,283	8 / 10
2026-08-27	$1.67	$3,757,262,283	8 / 10
2026-08-28	$1.67	$3,757,262,283	8 / 10
2026-08-29	$1.67	$3,757,262,283	9 / 10
2026-08-30	$1.67	$3,757,262,283	9 / 10
2026-08-31	$1.67	$3,757,262,283	9 / 10
2026-09-01	$1.67	$3,757,262,283	9 / 10
2026-09-02	$1.67	$3,757,262,283	9 / 10
2026-09-03	$1.67	$3,757,262,283	9 / 10
2026-09-04	$1.67	$3,757,262,283	9 / 10
2026-09-05	$1.67	$3,757,262,283	9 / 10
2026-09-06	$1.67	$3,757,262,283	9 / 10
2026-09-07	$1.67	$3,757,262,283	9 / 10
2026-09-08	$1.67	$3,757,262,283	9 / 10
2026-09-09	$1.67	$3,757,262,283	9 / 10
2026-09-10	$1.67	$3,757,262,283	9 / 10
2026-09-11	$1.67	$3,757,262,283	9 / 10
2026-09-12	$1.65	$3,745,129,207	9 / 11
2026-09-13	$1.65	$3,745,129,207	9 / 11
2026-09-14	$1.65	$3,745,129,207	9 / 11
2026-09-15	$1.65	$3,745,129,207	9 / 11
2026-09-16	$1.65	$3,745,129,207	9 / 11
2026-09-17	$1.65	$3,745,129,207	9 / 11
2026-09-18	$1.65	$3,745,129,207	9 / 11
2026-09-19	$1.65	$3,745,129,207	9 / 11
2026-09-20	$1.65	$3,745,102,294	9 / 11
2026-09-21	$1.65	$3,742,108,688	9 / 11
2026-09-22	$1.65	$3,742,108,688	9 / 11
2026-09-23	$1.65	$3,742,108,688	9 / 11
2026-09-24	$1.65	$3,742,108,688	9 / 11
2026-09-25	$1.65	$3,742,108,688	9 / 11
2026-09-26	$1.65	$3,742,108,688	9 / 11
2026-09-27	$1.65	$3,742,108,688	9 / 11
2026-09-28	$1.65	$3,742,108,688	9 / 11
2026-09-29	$1.65	$3,742,108,688	9 / 11
2026-09-30	$1.62	$3,735,858,688	9 / 11
2026-10-01	$1.61	$3,733,576,455	9 / 11
2026-10-02	$1.61	$3,733,577,438	9 / 11
2026-10-03	$1.61	$3,733,577,438	9 / 11
2026-10-04	$1.61	$3,733,577,438	9 / 11
2026-10-05	$1.61	$3,733,577,438	9 / 11
2026-10-06	$1.61	$3,731,481,489	9 / 11
2026-10-07	$1.59	$3,730,829,964	9 / 11
2026-10-08	$1.59	$3,730,829,964	9 / 11
2026-10-09	$1.59	$3,730,829,964	9 / 11
2026-10-10	$1.59	$3,730,829,964	9 / 11
2026-10-11	$1.59	$3,730,829,964	9 / 11
2026-10-12	$1.59	$3,730,829,964	9 / 11
2026-10-13	$1.59	$3,730,829,964	9 / 11
2026-10-14	$1.59	$3,730,829,964	9 / 11
2026-10-15	$1.59	$3,730,829,964	9 / 11
2026-10-16	$1.55	$3,730,804,964	9 / 11
2026-10-17	$1.55	$3,730,804,964	9 / 11
2026-10-18	$1.16	$3,539,647,045	7 / 11
2026-10-19	$1.16	$3,539,647,045	7 / 11
2026-10-20	$1.16	$3,539,647,045	7 / 11
2026-10-21	$1.16	$3,539,647,045	7 / 11
2026-10-22	$1.14	$3,527,194,390	7 / 11
2026-10-23	$1.14	$3,527,194,390	7 / 11
2026-10-24	$1.14	$3,527,194,390	7 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	11	2
2026-06-01	4	11	2
2026-07-01	5	11	2
2026-08-01	5	9	2
2026-09-01	6	9	2
2026-10-01	6	12	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 7 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

JefferiesOct 16

$5.00New observation · no comparable prior

BMO CapitalOct 16 · prior Jul 3

$14.00 → $7.50-46.4%

RBC CapitalOct 15 · prior Aug 3

$11.00 → $9.00-18.2%

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 15 · prior Oct 13

$12.00 → $10.00-16.7%

BarclaysOct 15 · prior Jul 27

$11.00 → $4.00-63.6%

UBSOct 5

$10.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$7.70$15.40

0 raises · 4 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Execute share buyback and optimize capitalPublished status: Under Pressure
Reduce debt by about $1 billionPublished status: Under Pressure
EPS near $1.76 per sharePublished status: Broken
Achieve revenue near $3.7 billionPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-83.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

FMC Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk recovery case, not a steady compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: recent signals improved mildly, but financial performance remains weak and earnings quality is fragile.

What's priced into FMC Corporation

FMC screens cheap versus peers, while the model also shows a modest peer premium, so the valuation picture is mixed. The priced-in assessment is labeled justified, with low fragility concentration; the evidence does not show that expectations already assume a full recovery.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results remain under pressure: Q2 revenue was down 17 percent year over year, and October’s Q3 revenue outlook followed major commercial actions. Management is taking corrective steps on channel health and competitiveness, while debt reduction and new active ingredients show mixed progress; the full debt-reduction goal is not established as complete.

What FMC Corporation hinges on

A key favorable signal would be guidance recovering after the July reduction, alongside continued strength among sector bellwethers. If those companies miss or lower guidance, the sector support could fade; FMC’s channel actions, product competitiveness, and balance-sheet progress also remain important swing factors.