Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Flowserve (FLS)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-23
$68.20+0.65%
Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-23
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.65 → 4.62 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|---|---|
| FY 2026 · Q4 | ||
| Revenue | — | 1.39B |
| EPS | — | 1.317 |
| FY 2026 · Annual | ||
| Revenue | — | 4.86B |
| EPS | $4.05–$4.2non-GAAP | 4.103 |
| Capital expenditure | About $100M | — |
| Organic revenue growth | ||
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS of $4.00 to $4.20 | It aims for adjusted EPS of $4.00 to $4.20 in 2026. | Broken | adjusted EPS falls below $3.64 (2025 actual) | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management initiated 2026 adjusted EPS guidance at $4.00 to $4.20 in 2025-Q4, reaffirmed it in 2026-Q1, and raised the low end to $4.05 in 2026-Q2. This reflects confidence in earnings growth and margin expansion, consistent with the financial results showing adjusted EPS of $0.85 in 2026-Q1 and $0.95 in 2026-Q2. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on operational excellence. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance but tempered by medium confidence and sector challenges.
The market currently prices FLS as cheap compared to peers, with a notable expectations gap. This suggests that investors may be cautious about the company's execution quality and the broader industrial sector's performance.
Management is on track with priorities like margin improvement and disciplined capital expenditures. However, there is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, though recent trends show a decline in earnings surprises.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like GEV, PH, and TT. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support FLS; conversely, any negative guidance from them could impact FLS adversely.
Overall, FLS has solid fundamentals but is navigating a challenging sector backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| — |
| Revenue growth | About 3% | — |
|---|
| FY 2027 · Annual | ||
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | 5.2B |
| EPS | — | 4.622 |
Adjusted operating margin near 15.1% in Q1 2026 and improving | A primary condition in Flowserve's published investment case. The stated target is >=15.1% adjusted operating margin. | Broken | adjusted operating margin falls below 12.8% (2025-Q1 level) | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Adjusted operating margin expanded from 14.6% in 2025-Q2 to 15.3% in 2026-Q2, marking 14 consecutive quarters of year-over-year adjusted gross margin expansion. Management has consistently emphasized operational excellence and margin improvement, and the financial results show delivering progress on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026 |
Capex near $95 million in 2026 | A supporting condition in Flowserve's published investment case. The stated target is ~$95M capex. | Intact | capex falls below $90M | Capital expenditures: $16.908M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$95M capex. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Jul 29, 202616,908,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Annual revenue near $3.5 billion in 2026 | A supporting condition in Flowserve's published investment case. The stated target is ~$3.5B revenue. | Under Pressure | annual revenue falls below $3.0B | Revenue: $1.169B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$3.5B revenue. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Jul 29, 20261,169,175,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 805a6947-72c3-44e9-a875-0d897b19c978. Source status: eligible. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.61 → $4.62 · observed estimates
$5.23B → $5.20B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.61 | $5,228,117,580 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.61 | $5,228,117,580 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.61 | $5,228,110,806 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.61 | $5,228,117,580 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.61 | $5,228,110,806 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.61 | $5,228,110,806 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.61 | $5,228,117,580 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.65 | $5,215,628,654 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.65 | $5,215,628,654 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.66 | $5,210,859,750 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.66 | $5,210,852,025 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.66 | $5,210,859,750 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.66 | $5,209,836,090 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.66 | $5,209,836,090 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.66 | $5,210,852,025 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.66 | $5,209,836,090 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.66 | $5,209,836,090 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.66 | $5,209,836,090 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-11 | $4.66 | $5,210,852,025 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.66 | $5,209,836,090 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.66 | $5,210,852,025 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.66 | $5,210,852,025 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.66 | $5,210,852,025 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.66 | $5,210,852,025 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.66 | $5,210,852,025 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.66 | $5,210,852,025 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.66 | $5,210,852,025 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.66 | $5,209,828,368 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.66 | $5,209,828,368 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.66 | $5,209,828,368 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.66 | $5,209,828,368 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.66 | $5,209,828,368 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.66 | $5,209,828,368 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.66 | $5,209,828,368 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.66 | $5,209,828,368 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.66 | $5,209,828,368 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.66 | $5,209,828,368 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.66 | $5,209,828,368 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.66 | $5,209,828,368 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.66 | $5,209,828,368 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.66 | $5,209,828,368 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.66 | $5,209,828,368 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.65 | $5,206,771,641 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.65 | $5,206,771,641 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.65 | $5,206,771,641 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.65 | $5,206,771,641 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.65 | $5,206,771,641 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.65 | $5,206,771,641 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.65 | $5,206,771,641 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.65 | $5,206,771,641 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.65 | $5,206,771,641 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.65 | $5,206,771,641 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.65 | $5,206,771,641 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.65 | $5,206,771,641 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.65 | $5,206,771,641 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.65 | $5,206,771,641 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.65 | $5,206,771,641 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.65 | $5,206,771,641 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.65 | $5,206,771,641 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.65 | $5,206,771,641 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.65 | $5,206,771,641 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.65 | $5,206,771,641 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.65 | $5,206,771,641 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.65 | $5,207,109,680 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.65 | $5,207,109,680 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.65 | $5,207,109,680 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.65 | $5,207,109,680 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.65 | $5,207,061,544 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.65 | $5,207,061,544 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.64 | $5,207,061,544 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.64 | $5,207,061,544 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.64 | $5,207,061,544 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.64 | $5,207,061,544 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.64 | $5,207,061,544 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.64 | $5,207,061,544 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.64 | $5,207,061,544 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.64 | $5,207,061,544 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.64 | $5,207,070,271 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.64 | $5,207,070,271 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.64 | $5,207,070,271 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.64 | $5,207,070,271 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.64 | $5,207,070,271 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.64 | $5,204,237,792 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.64 | $5,203,201,429 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.64 | $5,203,201,429 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.64 | $5,203,201,429 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.64 | $5,203,201,429 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.64 | $5,203,201,429 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.62 | $5,200,758,156 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.62 | $5,201,030,883 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.62 | $5,201,030,883 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.62 | $5,201,030,883 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.62 | $5,201,030,883 | 7 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Oct 28, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.