National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-09-09
$30.54-1.80%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Revenue stays near $297 million in fiscal 2026 Q4: FY26 rev $1.18B vs $297M target.
National Beverage keeps profit margins steady near 37%. It pays special dividends often. Earnings per share beat last year by 317%.
Sales volume is falling, with revenue down 10% in 2026 Q4. Dividend safety worries could hurt stock price. Competition pressures LaCroix brand.
The price is about 2% above our fair value near $32. Analysts expect about 1% revenue growth next year.
Breaks if: Special dividends stop or dividend cuts occur
Breaks if: EPS falls below $2.00 in fiscal 2026
Breaks if: Gross margin falls below 37% in fiscal 2026
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable, long-term thesis in the Consumer Staples sector. The company is focusing on innovation and capital allocation, but faces challenges with recent revenue declines and a history of earnings misses.
The current valuation suggests that the market views FIZZ as relatively cheap compared to its peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that investors are not overly optimistic about future performance.
Fundamentals are likely to remain neutral in the near term, given mixed execution on management priorities and a moderate risk profile. Recent financial performance has been stable, but revenue has declined, which may impact future results.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to execute on innovation and maintain margins while navigating sector headwinds. Key factors include potential inflation impacts and performance of sector leaders like KO and PEP, which could influence FIZZ's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats impacting the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Manage sales volume alongside pricing strategies to maintain or improve margins in a competitive market.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue declined from $330.5M in 2026-Q1 to $264.6M in 2026-Q3, while gross margin remained steady near 37% in fiscal 2026. Management's focus on balancing volume with pricing and margins shows mixed delivery given revenue decline but stable margins.
“As we pursue volume growth, improve product mix, and capitalize on new opportunities, we continue to build shareholder value.”
“Balancing volume with product pricing and margins remains our objective amid tariff-related cost increases.”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $297 million in 2026-Q4
Manage sales volume alongside pricing strategies to maintain or improve margins in a competitive market.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue declined from $330.5M in 2026-Q1 to $264.6M in 2026-Q3, while gross margin remained steady near 37% in fiscal 2026. Management's focus on balancing volume with pricing and margins shows mixed delivery given revenue decline but stable margins.
“As we pursue volume growth, improve product mix, and capitalize on new opportunities, we continue to build shareholder value.”
“Balancing volume with product pricing and margins remains our objective amid tariff-related cost increases.”
Overall, the outlook for FIZZ remains intact, but the company must address its recent performance challenges. Not investment advice.