FIGURE TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS INC (FIGR)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$38.12-0.39%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue reaches at least $818 million in FY26: FY26 revenue guidance $515M vs $818M target.
Figure is growing revenue with guidance of $818 million in 2026. The company targets $4 billion in Consumer Loan Marketplace volume in Q2 2026. A strategic merger with Kiavi aims to strengthen growth. Analysts expect revenue growth near 38%.
Figure has missed earnings repeatedly in 2026, signaling weak execution. The recent 9.8% one-day stock drop shows market concern. Free cash flow is negative, and valuation is expensive versus peers. Debt issuance adds financial risk.
The price is about 47% above our fair value near $21, reflecting high growth expectations of 38% revenue growth. Our view is cautious given repeated earnings misses and negative free cash flow.
Breaks if: Volume falls below $3.8 billion in Q2 2026
Breaks if: Free cash flow yield remains negative beyond next 4 quarters
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $515 million in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. The current thesis state is cautious due to elevated risks and a high valuation, despite strong recent financial performance.
The market has priced in an expensive valuation compared to peers, indicating high expectations for FIGR's future performance. The current valuation reflects a premium of 1.23 times its peers, suggesting that investors expect continued strong growth.
Fundamentals are likely to remain strong in the near term, driven by the growth of the Consumer Loan Marketplace and the completion of the Kiavi acquisition. However, there is a moderate risk of earnings misses, as recent earnings surprises have been erratic.
The thesis hinges on FIGR's ability to maintain guidance and deliver strong results, particularly in the Consumer Loan Marketplace. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers like MS, GS, and SCHW will be crucial in determining FIGR's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
Valuation fell by 11.0 points (from 30.5 to 19.5).
Yes, our read has strengthened. The company provided guidance for consumer loan marketplace volume. It also reported record volume, which supports growth in this area. There are no new threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Merger agreement fails or integration causes material disruption
Leverage strategic partnership and merger agreement with Kiavi, Inc. to expand Figure's platform capabilities.
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. Management announced a strategic partnership and merger agreement with Kiavi, Inc. The partnership is in early stages with no financial impact reported yet. The trajectory is pending completion.
“Entered into Agreement and Plan of Merger with Kiavi, Inc. to expand platform.”
In the next 1 to 3 years, FIGR's performance will depend on its execution of growth strategies and the broader financial sector's health. Not investment advice.