FIGURE TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS INC (FIGR)

NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$23.19-3.54%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge FIGURE TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS INC’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	260.05M
EPS	—	0.294
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	895.04M
EPS	—	1.15
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.19B
EPS	—	1.523

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Consumer Loan Marketplace volume hits $4.1 billion in Q2 2026	The company targets $4 billion in Consumer Loan Marketplace volume in Q2 2026.	Intact	Volume falls below $3.8 billion in Q2 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 quarters starting 2026-Q1. Management provided forward guidance for Q3 2026 Consumer Loan Marketplace volume of $4.8 to $5.2 billion in 2026-Q2. This shows management is delivering on its commitment to provide forward guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Free cash flow improves from negative to positive	A supporting condition in FIGURE TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS INC's published investment case. The stated target is Free cash flow yield >= 0%.	Broken	Free cash flow yield remains negative beyond next 4 quarters	Free cash flow yield: -71.54% As of 2026-10-23; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 23, 2026-71.54 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 23, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: FIGR:2026-10-23. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches at least $818 million in FY26	A primary condition in FIGURE TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS INC's published investment case. The stated target is >= $818 million.	Broken	Revenue falls below $515 million in FY26	Revenue: $225.588M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $818 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 14, 2026225,588,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2344bb1c-2cff-4624-af23-b1be2184f0a8. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Successful integration of merger with Kiavi, Inc.	A strategic merger with Kiavi aims to strengthen growth.	Intact	Merger agreement fails or integration causes material disruption	Merger completed 2026-09-01; no disruption reported FIGR completed Kiavi acquisition on Sept 1, 2026. Q3 preliminary results announced Oct 6 show an earnings beat. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in mid-2026. The company entered into a merger agreement with Kiavi on June 10, 2026, marking a strategic partnership priority. This is a one-time event and has been executed as planned. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$1.03B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$1,025,522,911	2 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$1,025,522,911	2 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$1,025,522,911	2 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$1,025,522,911	2 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$1,025,522,911	2 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$1,025,522,911	2 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$1,022,169,020	1 / 7
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$1,022,169,020	1 / 7
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$1,025,522,911	2 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$1,022,169,020	1 / 7
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$1,025,522,911	2 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$1,022,169,020	1 / 7
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$1,022,169,020	1 / 7
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$1,022,169,020	1 / 7
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$1,025,522,911	2 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$1,045,858,590	1 / 7
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$1,045,858,590	1 / 7
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$1,045,858,590	1 / 7
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$1,025,522,911	2 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$1,045,858,590	1 / 7
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$1,025,522,911	2 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$1,025,522,911	2 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$1,025,522,911	2 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$1,025,522,911	2 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$1,025,522,911	2 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$1,025,522,911	3 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$1,025,522,911	3 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$1,115,853,662	3 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$1,119,375,557	3 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$1,119,375,614	3 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$1,119,375,614	3 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$1,119,375,614	3 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$1,119,375,614	3 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$1,128,071,757	3 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$1,128,071,757	3 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$1,128,071,757	3 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$1,128,071,757	3 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$1,128,071,757	3 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$1,128,071,757	3 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$1,128,071,757	3 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$1,128,071,757	3 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$1,128,071,757	3 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$1,128,071,757	3 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$1,128,071,757	3 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$1,128,071,757	3 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$1,128,071,757	3 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$1,128,071,757	3 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$1,128,071,757	3 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$1,154,932,966	3 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$1,182,314,681	3 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$1,182,314,681	3 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$1,182,314,681	3 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$1,182,314,681	3 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$1,182,314,681	3 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$1,182,314,681	3 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$1,182,314,681	3 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$1,182,314,681	3 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	6	1	1
2026-06-01	6	1	1
2026-07-01	6	0	1
2026-08-01	6	0	1
2026-09-01	7	1	1
2026-10-01	8	1	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Goldman SachsOct 7

$41.00New observation · no comparable prior

Raymond JamesOct 5

$44.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$24.20$48.40

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Consumer Loan Marketplace volume hits $4.1 billion in Q2 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Free cash flow improves from negative to positivePublished status: Broken
Revenue reaches at least $818 million in FY26Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 12, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-68.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

FIGURE TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS INC outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

FIGR is a high-growth financial platform with a multi-year view that depends on continued expansion of its Consumer Loan Marketplace. The thesis is intact, supported by strong recent performance and management progress, but the high risk and sector headwind make the setup less durable than a steady compounder.

What's priced into FIGURE TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS INC

The valuation is expensive versus peers, and the evidence says expectations are already aligned with the business outlook. The priced-in assessment is marked justified with low fragility, but confidence in the valuation model is low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, marketplace volume growth and completion of the Kiavi acquisition support the operating story: volume rose from $2.9 billion in Q1 2026 to $4.3 billion in Q2, and management guided to $4.8 billion to $5.2 billion for Q3. Recent earnings beats helped the signal turn favorable, though erratic and declining earnings surprises remain a risk, and the financial-sector backdrop is a headwind.

What FIGURE TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS INC hinges on

The multi-year thesis hinges on continued marketplace growth and whether Kiavi expands the platform as intended. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strong earnings and higher guidance from sector bellwethers such as MS, GS, and SCHW would support sector momentum; rate cuts are another stated sector risk.