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Track FIGR free→FIGURE TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS INC (FIGR)
NASDAQFinancialsCapital MarketsSnapshot 2026-07-06
Intact
$34.41+1.47%
Close 2026-07-06 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
The thesis is that FIGR's growth potential is strong due to steady management. Revenue performance has been strong, with recent analyst support suggesting a positive outlook. FIGR trades at 31× P/E versus a peer median of 25×. This suggests the price reflects less growth than expected. A specific risk is the 36% chance of a miss in the next quarter. Peer multiples imply a price about 61% below where it trades. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-07-06
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Capital Markets
- Market cap
- $7.50B
- Employees
- 602
- IPO date
- 2025-08-18
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-10
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $34.41. As of 2026-07-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Fair value· primary
$21.47
Range $10.29 – $27.78
vs price: +60% above
Method agreement : high · 8 methods
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
3-year
$42.35consensus
Range $35.58 – $44.15
vs price: -19% below
Method agreement : medium · 4 methods
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
5-year
$56.01consensus
Range $47.06 – $58.39
vs price: -39% below
Method agreement : high · 4 methods
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peersmedium confidence
At $34 FIGR trades at 31× p/e, in line with its 25× p/e peer median — but our blended $21 fair value sits well below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
30.7x
peer 24.6x · own history 25.1x
Premium
1.2x peer
1.2x its own history
Growth the price needs
55%
our forecast 59%
Our fair value
$21.29
range $10.78 – $27.45
Whymodel fit weak
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price sits about 55% above a flat-multiple fair value, while analysts forecast about 59% growth — in line with our forecast. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
31.1x
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings quality
Not enough signal yet.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
stable2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2527).
83rd pctl · Financials
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +3.6% / 30d, n=3for period ending 2026-09-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.30 → $0.31 (+3.6% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-07-06
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$320.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$928.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,580.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-07-06
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The analyst valuation has improved, suggesting a positive outlook for growth. There are no new threats affecting the thesis.
as of 2026-07-06
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 24d
Watch for changes in sector revenue growth trends
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could impact FIGR's performance and investor sentiment.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Sector revenue growth drops below its median for the first time in three years.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains stable or improves above the median.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-1026d agoMarkets Insider
Buy rating suggests positive outlook for growth.
ReinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
- Watch for consumer spending trends in retail sales data
- Watch for FOMC decisions that affect interest rates.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like MS, GS, and SCHW keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting FIGR and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If FIGR raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-12), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If FIGR cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-12), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.63%, that would weigh on FIGR and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like MS, GS, and SCHW start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping FIGR and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-07-061d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On July 6, 2026, Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. (“the Company”) issued a press release announcing the launch of a private offering, subject to market and other customary conditions, of $600 million in aggregate principal amount of senior notes due 2031 (the “Notes”). A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, which is incorporated herein by reference. The Company intends to use the net proceeds from this offering to fund the cash consideration payable in…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-4.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-07-06
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.