FutureFuel Corp. (FF)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-09
$5.37+0.56%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
FutureFuel aims to generate positive adjusted EBITDA in 2026. Revenue grew from $19.84M in 2025-Q4 to $31.95M in 2026-Q1. The CEO recently bought $42,800 in stock, showing confidence. The company maintains dividend payments, signaling some financial discipline.
FutureFuel is currently loss-making with negative free cash flow. Analysts expect about -38% revenue decline next year. Dividend per share dropped sharply from $2.5 to $0.01, reflecting financial stress. The sector faces headwinds and the company has elevated risk.
The price sits about 1% below our $4.65 fair value. The market expects a 38% revenue decline, which we view as overly pessimistic given recent revenue growth and management targets.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA remains negative through FY26
Deliver positive Adjusted EBITDA for full-year 2026, excluding non-cash derivative timing differences related to physical commodity price movements.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story, as FF aims to improve its financial performance after recent losses. The current thesis is cautious, reflecting a medium confidence level amid mixed results and elevated risks.
The market appears to have a stretched valuation, with expectations that are somewhat aligned with its peers. However, there is a notable expectations gap, indicating that investors may be anticipating better performance than what has been delivered recently.
Management is focused on generating positive Adjusted EBITDA and expanding capacity in the Chemicals segment, showing some positive momentum. However, the company remains loss-making, and its recent quality score has declined significantly, which could impact future performance.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to meet its EBITDA targets and the performance of the broader Materials sector. Key factors include potential inflationary pressures and the performance of sector leaders, which could influence FF's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA improved from a loss of ($13.8) million in 2026-Q1 to a positive $11.8 million in 2026-Q2, reflecting a strong recovery and momentum. Management's trajectory is delivering positive Adjusted EBITDA as anticipated for full-year 2026.
“We remain on pace to deliver positive Adjusted EBITDA for the full-year 2026.”
“For the full-year 2026, we expect to generate positive Adjusted EBITDA, excluding non-cash derivative timing differences.”
Breaks if: Dividend payments cease or fall below $0.01 per share
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $20M in any quarter of 2026
In the next 1 to 3 years, FF's outlook will depend on its execution against strategic priorities and external market conditions. Not investment advice.