FTI Consulting (FCN)

Q: What's priced into FTI Consulting (FCN) stock?

The valuation evidence calls FCN cheap versus peers, and its valuation measure recently fell by 14.9 points. The expectations gap is negative, and the priced-in assessment says the current setup is justified, with low fragility rather than a combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence.

Q: What does the FTI Consulting (FCN) outlook hinge on?

A guidance cut at the next call would be a meaningful negative, especially given the risk that analysts lower estimates afterward. The sector backdrop also depends on bellwethers EFX, BAH, and HURN: continued earnings strength and higher guidance would support the sector, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.

NYSEIndustrialsConsulting ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$157.24-0.22%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge FTI Consulting’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.01B
EPS	—	2.489
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$3.94B–$4.1B	4B
EPS	—	9.273
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.27B
EPS	—	10.867

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Disciplined capital allocation with share repurchases and credit facility	A supporting condition in FTI Consulting's published investment case. The stated target is Repurchase at least 787,098 shares in Q1 2026 and authorize $370M additional buybacks; credit facility at $1.5B.	Intact	No share repurchases or credit facility reduced below $900M	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Company repurchased 2.59 million shares for $390.9 million in 2026-Q2 and increased its revolving credit facility from $900 million to $1.5 billion, demonstrating active capital allocation and enhanced financial flexibility consistent with management's stated priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Full year 2026 EPS between $8.90 and $9.60	A primary condition in FTI Consulting's published investment case. The stated target is >= $8.90 and <= $9.60.	Under Pressure	Full year 2026 EPS falls below $8.90	Diluted EPS: $1.99 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $8.90 and <= $9.60. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20261.99 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a639215b-f2dc-4526-80b3-3d36317935a7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Diluted EPS increased from $1.74 in 2025-Q1 to $1.99 in 2026-Q2. Management has reaffirmed full year 2026 EPS guidance, recently updating the range to $8.70 to $9.30 with adjusted EPS guidance of $9.10 to $9.70, showing consistent focus and delivery. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Full year 2026 revenue between $3.94B and $4.10B	A primary condition in FTI Consulting's published investment case. The stated target is >= $3.94 billion and <= $4.10 billion.	Under Pressure	Full year 2026 revenue falls below $3.94 billion	Revenue: $993.464M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.94 billion and <= $4.10 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026993,464,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a639215b-f2dc-4526-80b3-3d36317935a7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $898.3 million in 2025-Q1 to $993.5 million in 2026-Q2. Management has consistently reaffirmed the full year 2026 revenue guidance range of $3.94 billion to $4.10 billion, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
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2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
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2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
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2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
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2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	1	2
2026-06-01	1	2
2026-07-01	1	2
2026-08-01	1	2
2026-09-01	1	2
2026-10-01	1	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 23 · prior May 4

$180.00 → $158.00-12.2%

$0$99.00$198.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Disciplined capital allocation with share repurchases and credit facilityDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Full year 2026 EPS between $8.90 and $9.60Published status: Under Pressure
Full year 2026 revenue between $3.94B and $4.10BPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-30.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

FTI Consulting outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

FCN is a guidance-execution story with some capital-allocation support, rather than a clear durable compounder today. The thesis is in watch mode: recent performance is neutral and below its industry cohort, while earnings quality is fragile and management execution is rated volatile.

What's priced into FTI Consulting

The valuation evidence calls FCN cheap versus peers, and its valuation measure recently fell by 14.9 points. The expectations gap is negative, and the priced-in assessment says the current setup is justified, with low fragility rather than a combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management has stayed on track with 2026 revenue and EPS guidance, and revenue and diluted EPS rose between 2025-Q1 and 2026-Q2. Share repurchases and a larger revolving credit facility show active capital allocation, but a recent earnings beat sits alongside a litigation filing, a sector headwind, and a history of a deep miss. The stated near-term miss risk is low, though peer misses and FCN’s weaker cohort performance warrant attention.

What FTI Consulting hinges on