First BanCorp (Puerto Rico) (FBP)

NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$27.42+0.40%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge First BanCorp (Puerto Rico)’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.55 → 2.58 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	278.23M
EPS	—	0.618
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	277.8M
EPS	—	0.615
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.09B
EPS	—	2.4
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.14B
EPS	—	2.58

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Dividend per share increase to at least $0.20 in 2026-Q1	Dividends rose from $0.18 to $0.20 per share, rewarding shareholders.	Intact	dividend per share falls below $0.18 in any future quarter	Dividend per share: $0.20 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.20 dividend per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 7, 20260.2 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: acb34c47-c7cb-40c4-be95-15d40dcb68cc. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income growth to at least $88.8 million in 2026-Q1	Operating income increased from $100.3 million to $114.3 million, showing good expense control.	Intact	net income falls below $77 million in any future quarter	Net income: $96.154M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $88.8 million net income. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 7, 202696,154,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: acb34c47-c7cb-40c4-be95-15d40dcb68cc. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income growth to at least $114.3 million in 2026-Q1	Operating income increased from $100.3 million to $114.3 million, showing good expense control.	Intact	operating income falls below $100 million in any future quarter	Operating income: $120.206M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $114.3 million operating income. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 7, 2026120,206,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth to avoid decline worse than -8% next year	A primary condition in First BanCorp (Puerto Rico)'s published investment case. The stated target is revenue decline no worse than -8% YoY.	Intact	revenue declines more than -8% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.58

$2.40 → $2.58 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$1.11B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.40	$1,114,121,200	6 / 5
2026-07-25	$2.51	$1,134,534,330	7 / 6
2026-07-26	$2.51	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-27	$2.51	$1,134,534,330	7 / 6
2026-07-28	$2.51	$1,134,534,330	7 / 6
2026-07-29	$2.52	$1,134,534,330	7 / 6
2026-07-30	$2.52	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-07-31	$2.52	$1,134,534,330	7 / 6
2026-08-01	$2.52	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-02	$2.52	$1,134,534,330	7 / 6
2026-08-03	$2.52	$1,134,534,330	7 / 6
2026-08-04	$2.52	$1,134,534,330	7 / 6
2026-08-05	$2.52	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-06	$2.52	$1,134,534,330	7 / 6
2026-08-07	$2.52	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-08	$2.52	$1,134,534,330	7 / 6
2026-08-09	$2.52	$1,134,534,330	7 / 6
2026-08-10	$2.52	$1,134,534,330	7 / 6
2026-08-11	$2.55	$1,137,536,170	7 / 6
2026-08-12	$2.55	$1,137,536,170	7 / 6
2026-08-13	$2.52	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-14	$2.52	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-15	$2.52	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-16	$2.52	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-17	$2.52	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-18	$2.52	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-19	$2.52	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-20	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-21	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-22	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-23	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-24	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-25	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-26	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-27	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-28	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-29	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-30	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-08-31	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-01	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-02	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-03	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-04	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-05	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-06	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-07	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-08	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-09	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-10	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-11	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-12	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-13	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-14	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-15	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-16	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-17	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-18	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-19	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-20	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-21	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-22	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-23	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-24	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-25	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-26	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-27	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-28	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-29	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-09-30	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-01	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-02	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-03	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-04	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-05	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-06	$2.55	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-07	$2.54	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-08	$2.58	Unavailable	6 / 4
2026-10-09	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-10	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-11	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-12	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-13	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-14	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-15	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-16	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-17	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-18	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-19	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-20	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-21	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-22	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-23	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-10-24	$2.58	Unavailable	5 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	4	2
2026-06-01	4	2
2026-07-01	5	2
2026-08-01	5	2
2026-09-01	5	2
2026-10-01	5	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoSep 29 · prior Aug 10

$33.00 → $32.00-3.0%

$0$18.15$36.30

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Dividend per share increase to at least $0.20 in 2026-Q1Dividend per share: $0.20 per share
Net income growth to at least $88.8 million in 2026-Q1Net income: $96.154M
Operating income growth to at least $114.3 million in 2026-Q1Operating income: $120.206M
Revenue growth to avoid decline worse than -8% next yearDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-12.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

First BanCorp (Puerto Rico) outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

FBP is a regional banking business with a multi-year thesis tied to responsible loan growth, expense control, and capital deployment. Management is stable, but the thesis is in a watch state after recent performance fell below its industry cohort.

What's priced into First BanCorp (Puerto Rico)

Valuation is neutral in the evidence snapshot, with a 1.76 premium versus peers and a near-zero expectations gap. The premium is described as durable, while priced-in fragility is low; this suggests expectations are broadly justified, though the evidence does not show a large cushion against weaker execution.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the October earnings miss and sharp drop in company momentum point to a weaker setup, while the reported miss risk remains quiet. In 2026-Q3, loans grew 3.3% annualized on a linked-quarter basis and management reported growth across operating markets; capital returns were also active, though expenses rose versus the prior-year quarter.

What First BanCorp (Puerto Rico) hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on continued responsible loan growth and better control of expenses without losing the recent pace of capital deployment. Near term, another guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, and rate cuts could weigh on the Financials sector; continued strong results from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.