FB Financial Corp. (FBK)

NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-10-23

$53.46-0.30%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge FB Financial Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.15 → 5.05 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	179.45M
EPS	—	1.193
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	179.15M
EPS	—	1.175
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	704.41M
EPS	—	4.665
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	748.12M
EPS	—	5.054

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Dividend per share at or above $0.21	FB Financial keeps raising its dividend to $0.21 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.21	Dividend per share: $0.21 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.21 USD_PER_SHARE. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 3, 20260.21 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5437058f-0122-404e-add6-385a1d840886. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Earnings per share growth to at least $2.45 by end of 2026	Earnings per share are expected to grow to $2.45 by the end of 2026.	Broken	EPS falls below $2.45 by end of 2026	Diluted EPS: $1.13 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2.45 USD_PER_SHARE. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Aug 3, 20261.13 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5437058f-0122-404e-add6-385a1d840886. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue stabilizes or grows above $225 million quarterly	A primary condition in FB Financial Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=225 million USD.	Broken	Revenue falls below $225 million quarterly	Revenue: $229.438M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=225 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 2026229,438,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5437058f-0122-404e-add6-385a1d840886. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain share repurchase plan up to $175 million	It has a strong buyback plan for $175 million.	Intact	Buyback plan is reduced or canceled	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.05

$5.14 → $5.05 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.75B

$0.76B → $0.75B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.14	$761,908,860	8 / 7
2026-07-25	$5.14	$761,908,860	8 / 7
2026-07-26	$5.14	$761,908,860	8 / 7
2026-07-27	$5.14	$761,908,860	8 / 7
2026-07-28	$5.14	$761,908,860	8 / 7
2026-07-29	$5.14	$761,908,857	6 / 5
2026-07-30	$5.14	$761,908,860	8 / 7
2026-07-31	$5.14	$761,908,860	8 / 7
2026-08-01	$5.14	$761,908,857	6 / 5
2026-08-02	$5.14	$761,908,860	8 / 7
2026-08-03	$5.14	$761,908,860	8 / 7
2026-08-04	$5.14	$761,908,860	8 / 7
2026-08-05	$5.14	$761,908,860	8 / 7
2026-08-06	$5.14	$761,908,860	8 / 7
2026-08-07	$5.14	$761,908,857	6 / 5
2026-08-08	$5.14	$761,908,860	8 / 7
2026-08-09	$5.14	$761,908,860	8 / 7
2026-08-10	$5.14	$761,908,857	6 / 5
2026-08-11	$5.14	$761,908,860	8 / 7
2026-08-12	$5.14	$761,908,860	8 / 7
2026-08-13	$5.14	$761,908,857	6 / 5
2026-08-14	$5.14	$761,908,857	6 / 5
2026-08-15	$5.14	$761,908,857	6 / 5
2026-08-16	$5.14	$761,908,857	6 / 5
2026-08-17	$5.14	$761,908,857	6 / 5
2026-08-18	$5.14	$761,908,857	6 / 5
2026-08-19	$5.14	$761,908,857	6 / 5
2026-08-20	$5.14	$761,908,857	6 / 5
2026-08-21	$5.14	$761,908,857	6 / 5
2026-08-22	$5.14	$761,908,857	6 / 5
2026-08-23	$5.14	$761,908,857	6 / 5
2026-08-24	$5.14	$761,908,857	6 / 5
2026-08-25	$5.14	$762,280,286	6 / 5
2026-08-26	$5.14	$762,280,286	6 / 5
2026-08-27	$5.14	$762,280,286	6 / 5
2026-08-28	$5.14	$762,280,286	6 / 5
2026-08-29	$5.14	$762,280,286	6 / 5
2026-08-30	$5.14	$762,280,286	6 / 5
2026-08-31	$5.14	$762,280,286	6 / 5
2026-09-01	$5.14	$762,280,286	6 / 5
2026-09-02	$5.14	$762,280,286	6 / 5
2026-09-03	$5.14	$762,280,286	6 / 5
2026-09-04	$5.14	$762,280,286	6 / 5
2026-09-05	$5.14	$758,566,000	6 / 5
2026-09-06	$5.14	$758,566,000	6 / 5
2026-09-07	$5.14	$758,566,000	6 / 5
2026-09-08	$5.14	$758,566,000	6 / 5
2026-09-09	$5.14	$758,566,000	6 / 5
2026-09-10	$5.14	$758,566,000	6 / 5
2026-09-11	$5.14	$758,566,000	6 / 5
2026-09-12	$5.14	$758,566,000	6 / 5
2026-09-13	$5.14	$758,566,000	6 / 5
2026-09-14	$5.14	$758,566,000	6 / 5
2026-09-15	$5.14	$758,566,000	6 / 5
2026-09-16	$5.14	$758,566,000	6 / 5
2026-09-17	$5.14	$758,566,000	6 / 5
2026-09-18	$5.14	$758,566,000	6 / 5
2026-09-19	$5.14	$758,566,000	6 / 5
2026-09-20	$5.14	$758,566,000	6 / 5
2026-09-21	$5.14	$758,566,000	6 / 5
2026-09-22	$5.14	$758,566,000	6 / 5
2026-09-23	$5.15	$759,617,000	6 / 5
2026-09-24	$5.15	$759,617,000	6 / 5
2026-09-25	$5.15	$759,617,000	7 / 6
2026-09-26	$5.15	$759,617,000	7 / 6
2026-09-27	$5.15	$759,617,000	7 / 6
2026-09-28	$5.15	$759,617,000	7 / 6
2026-09-29	$5.15	$759,617,000	7 / 6
2026-09-30	$5.15	$759,617,000	7 / 6
2026-10-01	$5.15	$759,617,000	7 / 6
2026-10-02	$5.15	$759,617,000	7 / 6
2026-10-03	$5.16	$760,145,571	7 / 6
2026-10-04	$5.16	$760,145,571	7 / 6
2026-10-05	$5.16	$760,145,571	7 / 6
2026-10-06	$5.16	$760,145,571	7 / 6
2026-10-07	$5.16	$760,145,571	7 / 6
2026-10-08	$5.16	$760,145,571	7 / 6
2026-10-09	$5.17	$760,145,571	7 / 6
2026-10-10	$5.17	$760,145,571	7 / 6
2026-10-11	$5.17	$760,145,571	6 / 5
2026-10-12	$5.17	$760,145,571	6 / 5
2026-10-13	$5.17	$760,145,571	6 / 5
2026-10-14	$5.05	$748,119,986	6 / 5
2026-10-15	$5.05	$748,119,986	7 / 6
2026-10-16	$5.05	$748,119,986	6 / 5
2026-10-17	$5.05	$748,119,986	6 / 5
2026-10-18	$5.05	$748,119,986	6 / 5
2026-10-19	$5.05	$748,119,986	6 / 5
2026-10-20	$5.05	$748,119,986	6 / 5
2026-10-21	$5.05	$748,119,986	6 / 5
2026-10-22	$5.05	$748,119,986	6 / 5
2026-10-23	$5.05	$748,119,986	6 / 5
2026-10-24	$5.05	$748,119,986	6 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	7	2
2026-06-01	8	0
2026-07-01	8	0
2026-08-01	8	0
2026-09-01	8	0
2026-10-01	8	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 14

$64.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$35.20$70.40

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Dividend per share at or above $0.21Dividend per share: $0.21 per share
Earnings per share growth to at least $2.45 by end of 2026Published status: Broken
Revenue stabilizes or grows above $225 million quarterlyPublished status: Broken
Maintain share repurchase plan up to $175 millionDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-18.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

FB Financial Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

FBK is a growth-oriented regional bank with a recent record of strong financial performance, rather than a clear turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is intact, but earnings quality is fragile and management execution is neutral, so the strength of growth and expense control still matter.

What's priced into FB Financial Corp.

Valuation is expensive versus peers, with a 1.17 peer premium, and the evidence tags expectations as stretched. The expectations gap is modestly positive at 0.2, while the available evidence does not show that severe business fragility is fully reflected in valuation.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent results are strong: loans and deposits have grown, and the latest earnings event was in line. Efficiency progress is mixed, with the efficiency ratio worsening in the latest quarter and adjusted expenses rising; guidance cuts and rate cuts are key risks, while recent momentum has improved from mixed to mildly favorable.

What FB Financial Corp. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on FBK sustaining organic loan and deposit growth while controlling expenses and avoiding guidance cuts. The sector backdrop is a headwind: lower rates could weigh on financial stocks, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support momentum.