Exelixis (EXEL)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-09
$58.33+1.14%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Exelixis grows revenue about 10% yearly, reaching $2.575 billion in 2026. Profit rises with operating income hitting $251 million in Q1 2026. The company is buying back $750 million in stock, showing strong capital return. Recent sales growth and new drug approvals support lasting demand.
Revenue growth may slow below 7% as guidance was cut recently. Profit margins could shrink if costs rise or new drugs face competition. Hedge fund selling and market pullbacks may pressure shares further.
The price is about 20% below our fair value near $71, reflecting a justified discount. Analysts expect roughly 20% revenue growth, which is higher than recent guidance, so the market may be optimistic on growth.
Breaks if: Buyback program is canceled or materially reduced
Exelixis announced a new stock repurchase program of up to $750 million by December 31, 2027.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on long-term growth. The current thesis state is intact, driven by solid execution in key areas like cabozantinib revenue growth and ongoing clinical development for zanzalintinib.
Valuation appears neutral, with the market pricing in a modest expectations gap compared to peers. The stock is seen as relatively cheap against its industry, but the overall confidence in the model is low.
Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, supported by strong recent financial results and ongoing management execution. However, there is a moderate risk due to the potential for guidance cuts and broader economic concerns.
The thesis hinges on the successful advancement of zanzalintinib trials and continued revenue growth from cabozantinib. Additionally, sector performance from key peers will influence sentiment and momentum in the healthcare space.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports the company's outlook. However, competition and lowered revenue guidance threaten growth in the cabozantinib franchise.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $187 million in Q1 2026
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $2.3 billion in FY26
Over the next 1 to 3 years, EXEL's performance will depend on its ability to execute on clinical and revenue growth strategies while navigating external economic factors. Not investment advice.