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Track EVMN free→Evommune, Inc. (EVMN)
NYSEHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-07-06
Watch· this week
$12.36-4.63%
Close 2026-07-06 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
The thesis is that EVMN's growth potential is under review after a sharp price drop. The company recently fell 40% in a single session, indicating market repricing. This price reaction suggests that the market is reassessing the reasons to own EVMN. The stock trades at a low valuation compared to peers, which implies a price about 75% above where it trades. The specific risk is that EVMN may cut guidance, with a 50% chance of missing expectations. Peer multiples imply a price about 75% above where it trades; this read is provisional.
as of 2026-07-06
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Biotechnology
- Market cap
- $466.80M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2025-10-09
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-06
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $12.36. As of 2026-07-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Fair value· primary
$50.00
Range $50.00 – $50.00
vs price: -75% below
Method agreement : high · 1 method
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
3-year
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
5-year
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
high confidence
We can't anchor a clean multiple for EVMN right now, so treat our $50 fair value as low-confidence. Analysts target $26–$55. Not investment advice.
Multiple (multiple)
—
peer — · own history —
Premium
—
Growth the price needs
-74%
our forecast -81%
Our fair value
$50.00
range $50.00 – $50.00
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
12-month view
What's priced inStretched
The price sits about 74% below a flat-multiple fair value, while analysts forecast about -85% growth — ahead of our forecast. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Compared to its own history
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated weak grew net income 30% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=9274).
18th pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
Not enough signal yet.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
stable3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=3552).
79th pctl · Health Care
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BearishEPS revised -8.7% / 30d, n=8for period ending 2026-09-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.69 → $-0.75 (-8.7% / 30d). 3 raised, 3 cut, 8 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 2 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 72.8% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: is in (~0.5 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-07-06
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
- #1
Advance Atopic Dermatitis Phase 2b Data
ProductFocus on advancing the Atopic Dermatitis Phase 2b data expected in H2 2026.
Mixed
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$293.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,142.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,085.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-07-06
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. EVMN experienced a sharp drop of 40% recently. This suggests the market is repricing the reasons to own the stock. There are no recent financial performance records to support a strong thesis.
as of 2026-07-06
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceQuartersactive 17d
Watch for revenue updates in Q2 earnings
Why it matters: The company set a revenue target of $13 million for 2026. Q2 results will show progress.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Q2 revenue was over $3 million. This shows progress toward the $13 million goal.
Confirms the other:Q2 revenue remains at zero or declines, showing no progress.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for EVMN yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Health Care revenue growth to re-accelerate above 10%
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like VRTX, REGN, and ARGX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting EVMN and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If EVMN raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-13), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If EVMN beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a solid beat of +24% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If EVMN cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-13), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like VRTX, REGN, and ARGX start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping EVMN and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-298d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On June 29, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing top-line results from its randomized, double-blind, placebo controlled, dose-ranging Phase 2b trial evaluating the efficacy and safety of oral MRGPRX2 antagonist, EVO756, in adults with moderate-to-severe chronic spontaneous urticaria (“CSU”). The Phase 2b trial enrolled 160 moderate-to-severe antihistamine-refractory CSU patients in the United States, Europe, Canada and Japan. Participants received one of three act…
Legal / regulatorynegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
No score history yet for this stock.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.