ENERGY TRANSFER LP (ET)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-10-23

$20.04-0.45%

Close 2026-10-22 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge ENERGY TRANSFER LP’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.69 → 1.71 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	30.75B
EPS	—	0.396
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	119.77B
EPS	—	1.709
EBITDA	$18.8B–$19.1Bnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	121.98B
EPS	—	1.706

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA of $18.2-$18.6 billion in 2026	Energy Transfer raised its 2026 EBITDA guidance to $18.2-$18.6 billion.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $18.2 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised from $17.45-$17.85 billion in 2025-Q4 to $18.8-$19.1 billion in 2026-Q2. Actual Adjusted EBITDA grew from $7.96 billion in first half 2025 to $10.00 billion in first half 2026. The trajectory matches management's stated priority and shows delivering growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Growth capital investment of $5.5-$5.9 billion in 2026	It plans to invest $5.5-$5.9 billion in growth capital this year.	Intact	Growth capital investment falls below $5.5 billion in FY26	Capital expenditures: $1.564B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $5.5 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20261,564,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Growth capital investment guidance increased from approximately $5.0 billion in 2025-Q4 to $5.6-$5.9 billion in 2026-Q2. Actual growth capital expenditures were $1.53 billion in 2026-Q1 and $1.10 billion in 2026-Q2, consistent with the guidance range. The trajectory is delivering on the stated capital allocation priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue near $17.5 billion in 2026	Revenue is expected near $17.5 billion in 2026.	Improving	Revenue falls below $17.3 billion in FY26	Revenue: $34.334B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$17.5 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202634,334,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e260fe4f-8d49-4278-b4a5-904677424b52. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised from $17.45-$17.85 billion in 2025-Q4 to $18.8-$19.1 billion in 2026-Q2. Actual Adjusted EBITDA grew from $7.96 billion in first half 2025 to $10.00 billion in first half 2026. The trajectory matches management's stated priority and shows delivering growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.71

$1.57 → $1.71 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$121.98B

$111.81B → $121.98B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.57	$111,814,067,370	12 / 12
2026-07-25	$1.57	$111,814,067,370	12 / 12
2026-07-26	$1.57	$111,814,067,370	12 / 12
2026-07-27	$1.57	$112,012,509,530	12 / 12
2026-07-28	$1.57	$112,012,509,530	12 / 12
2026-07-29	$1.58	$110,188,029,932	10 / 8
2026-07-30	$1.57	$112,012,509,530	12 / 12
2026-07-31	$1.57	$112,012,509,530	12 / 12
2026-08-01	$1.58	$110,188,029,932	10 / 8
2026-08-02	$1.57	$112,012,509,530	12 / 12
2026-08-03	$1.57	$112,012,509,530	12 / 12
2026-08-04	$1.58	$110,188,029,932	10 / 8
2026-08-05	$1.57	$112,012,509,530	12 / 12
2026-08-06	$1.58	$110,188,029,932	10 / 8
2026-08-07	$1.62	$111,611,202,765	10 / 8
2026-08-08	$1.60	$115,553,986,530	12 / 12
2026-08-09	$1.60	$115,553,986,530	12 / 12
2026-08-10	$1.62	$111,611,202,765	10 / 8
2026-08-11	$1.60	$115,553,986,530	12 / 12
2026-08-12	$1.62	$111,611,202,765	10 / 8
2026-08-13	$1.64	$117,901,403,200	12 / 12
2026-08-14	$1.62	$111,611,202,765	10 / 8
2026-08-15	$1.62	$111,611,202,765	10 / 8
2026-08-16	$1.62	$111,611,202,765	10 / 8
2026-08-17	$1.62	$111,611,202,765	10 / 8
2026-08-18	$1.62	$111,611,202,765	10 / 8
2026-08-19	$1.62	$111,611,202,765	10 / 8
2026-08-20	$1.70	$120,309,361,343	11 / 9
2026-08-21	$1.70	$120,309,361,343	11 / 9
2026-08-22	$1.71	$120,309,361,343	11 / 9
2026-08-23	$1.71	$120,309,361,343	11 / 9
2026-08-24	$1.71	$120,309,361,343	11 / 9
2026-08-25	$1.71	$120,309,361,343	11 / 9
2026-08-26	$1.71	$120,309,361,343	11 / 9
2026-08-27	$1.71	$120,309,361,343	11 / 9
2026-08-28	$1.71	$120,309,361,343	11 / 9
2026-08-29	$1.71	$120,309,361,343	11 / 9
2026-08-30	$1.71	$120,309,361,343	11 / 9
2026-08-31	$1.71	$121,009,448,898	11 / 9
2026-09-01	$1.71	$121,009,448,898	11 / 9
2026-09-02	$1.71	$121,009,448,898	10 / 9
2026-09-03	$1.70	$121,019,115,565	10 / 9
2026-09-04	$1.70	$121,019,115,565	10 / 9
2026-09-05	$1.70	$121,019,115,565	10 / 9
2026-09-06	$1.70	$121,019,115,565	10 / 9
2026-09-07	$1.70	$121,019,115,565	10 / 9
2026-09-08	$1.70	$121,019,115,565	10 / 9
2026-09-09	$1.70	$121,019,115,565	10 / 9
2026-09-10	$1.70	$121,019,115,565	10 / 9
2026-09-11	$1.71	$121,019,115,565	11 / 9
2026-09-12	$1.71	$121,019,115,565	11 / 9
2026-09-13	$1.71	$121,019,115,565	12 / 9
2026-09-14	$1.71	$121,019,115,565	12 / 9
2026-09-15	$1.71	$121,019,115,565	12 / 9
2026-09-16	$1.71	$121,019,115,565	12 / 9
2026-09-17	$1.71	$121,019,115,565	12 / 9
2026-09-18	$1.71	$121,019,115,565	12 / 9
2026-09-19	$1.71	$121,019,115,565	12 / 9
2026-09-20	$1.69	$120,401,489,707	12 / 9
2026-09-21	$1.69	$120,401,489,707	12 / 9
2026-09-22	$1.69	$120,401,489,707	12 / 9
2026-09-23	$1.69	$120,995,223,763	12 / 9
2026-09-24	$1.69	$121,060,621,782	13 / 9
2026-09-25	$1.69	$121,060,621,782	13 / 9
2026-09-26	$1.69	$121,060,621,782	13 / 9
2026-09-27	$1.69	$121,060,621,782	13 / 9
2026-09-28	$1.69	$121,060,621,782	13 / 9
2026-09-29	$1.69	$121,060,621,782	13 / 9
2026-09-30	$1.69	$121,060,621,782	13 / 9
2026-10-01	$1.69	$121,060,621,782	13 / 9
2026-10-02	$1.69	$121,060,621,782	13 / 9
2026-10-03	$1.69	$121,060,621,782	13 / 9
2026-10-04	$1.69	$121,060,621,782	13 / 9
2026-10-05	$1.69	$121,060,621,782	13 / 9
2026-10-06	$1.69	$121,060,621,782	13 / 9
2026-10-07	$1.69	$121,060,621,782	13 / 9
2026-10-08	$1.69	$121,060,621,782	13 / 9
2026-10-09	$1.69	$121,060,621,782	13 / 9
2026-10-10	$1.69	$121,060,621,782	13 / 9
2026-10-11	$1.69	$121,060,621,782	13 / 9
2026-10-12	$1.69	$121,060,621,782	13 / 9
2026-10-13	$1.69	$121,060,621,782	13 / 9
2026-10-14	$1.69	$121,060,621,782	13 / 9
2026-10-15	$1.71	$121,619,765,473	13 / 9
2026-10-16	$1.71	$121,640,443,953	14 / 9
2026-10-17	$1.71	$121,640,443,953	14 / 9
2026-10-18	$1.71	$121,982,828,568	14 / 9
2026-10-19	$1.71	$121,982,828,568	14 / 9
2026-10-20	$1.71	$121,982,828,568	14 / 9
2026-10-21	$1.71	$121,982,828,568	14 / 9
2026-10-22	$1.71	$121,982,828,568	14 / 9
2026-10-23	$1.71	$121,982,828,568	14 / 9
2026-10-24	$1.71	$121,982,828,568	14 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	19	3
2026-06-01	19	2
2026-07-01	19	2
2026-08-01	19	2
2026-09-01	20	3
2026-10-01	20	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 13

$26.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$14.30$28.60

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA of $18.2-$18.6 billion in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Growth capital investment of $5.5-$5.9 billion in 2026Capital expenditures: $1.564B
Revenue near $17.5 billion in 2026Revenue: $34.334B

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-9.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

ENERGY TRANSFER LP outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ET is an infrastructure expansion and earnings-growth story with a sector tailwind, rather than a turnaround. Its multi-year view is intact: recent financial performance is strong, and management is on track with its stated priorities.

What's priced into ENERGY TRANSFER LP

The evidence tags expectations as justified, with low fragility, and shows a modest negative expectations gap. In plain terms, the setup does not show the full combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and turbulent conditions, though the sector regime is turbulent.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, earnings performance has been strong, and management raised 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance while increasing growth-capital plans. Projects are advancing, but earnings surprises have been trending down in a high-miss-rate industry, and a guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful setback.

What ENERGY TRANSFER LP hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on ET continuing to deliver on its higher guidance and infrastructure projects. Sector conditions also matter: continued strength from ENB, WMB, and KMI would support the tailwind, while missed results or lower guidance could weaken it. The September legal and regulatory listing notice is a negative event, but the evidence does not explain its implications.