ENERGY TRANSFER LP (ET)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-09-09
$21.68+0.79%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Energy Transfer raised its 2026 EBITDA guidance to $18.2-$18.6 billion. It plans to invest $5.5-$5.9 billion in growth capital this year. Revenue is expected near $17.5 billion in 2026. The company has stable market conditions and no recent stress.
Energy Transfer has missed earnings several times recently. Debt issuance may pressure financial health. If growth capital spending fails to generate returns, cash flow could weaken.
The price is about 31% below our fair value near $28. Analysts expect 14% revenue growth. Our view aligns with these expectations.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $18.2 billion in FY26
Continue to grow Adjusted EBITDA with updated guidance raised during 2026 reflecting operational growth and strong financial performance.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder in the energy sector. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong earnings and a commitment to growth capital investment.
The market appears to have priced in a justified valuation, reflecting a low expectations gap. However, the sector's recent turbulence suggests some fragility in the current setup.
Management is on track with increasing Adjusted EBITDA guidance and capital expenditures. While the near-term risk of missing earnings is low, the company operates in a high-miss-rate industry, which adds some uncertainty.
The long-term thesis hinges on inflation trends and the performance of sector bellwethers. Additionally, any guidance cuts from management could negatively impact sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this view. The company is expanding natural gas infrastructure and export capacity. There are no new threats to the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance increased from $17.45-$17.85 billion in 2025-Q4 to $18.8-$19.1 billion in 2026-Q2. Quarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew from $3.87 billion in 2025-Q2 to $5.07 billion in 2026-Q2, showing delivering trajectory consistent with management's stated growth focus.
“The Partnership now expects its Adjusted EBITDA guidance for the full year of 2026 to range between $18.8 billion and $19.1 billion.”
“The Partnership now expects its Adjusted EBITDA guidance for the full year of 2026 to range between $18.2 billion and $18.6 billion.”
“Energy Transfer now expects its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA to range between $17.45 and $17.85 billion.”
Breaks if: Growth capital investment falls below $5.5 billion in FY26
Maintain disciplined capital allocation by investing between $5.6 billion and $5.9 billion in growth capital expenditures during 2026.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Growth capital investment guidance increased from $5.0-$5.5 billion in 2025-Q4 to $5.6-$5.9 billion in 2026-Q2. Actual growth capital expenditures were $1.53 billion in 2026-Q1 and $1.10 billion in 2026-Q2, indicating active deployment consistent with stated capital allocation plans.
“The Partnership expects to invest $5.6 billion to $5.9 billion in growth capital for 2026.”
“The Partnership expects to invest $5.5 billion to $5.9 billion in growth capital for 2026.”
“The Partnership continues to expect to invest $5.0 billion to $5.5 billion in growth capital for 2026.”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $17.3 billion in FY26
Continue to grow Adjusted EBITDA with updated guidance raised during 2026 reflecting operational growth and strong financial performance.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance increased from $17.45-$17.85 billion in 2025-Q4 to $18.8-$19.1 billion in 2026-Q2. Quarterly Adjusted EBITDA grew from $3.87 billion in 2025-Q2 to $5.07 billion in 2026-Q2, showing delivering trajectory consistent with management's stated growth focus.
“The Partnership now expects its Adjusted EBITDA guidance for the full year of 2026 to range between $18.8 billion and $19.1 billion.”
“The Partnership now expects its Adjusted EBITDA guidance for the full year of 2026 to range between $18.2 billion and $18.6 billion.”
“Energy Transfer now expects its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA to range between $17.45 and $17.85 billion.”
Maintain disciplined capital allocation by investing between $5.6 billion and $5.9 billion in growth capital expenditures during 2026.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Growth capital investment guidance increased from $5.0-$5.5 billion in 2025-Q4 to $5.6-$5.9 billion in 2026-Q2. Actual growth capital expenditures were $1.53 billion in 2026-Q1 and $1.10 billion in 2026-Q2, indicating active deployment consistent with stated capital allocation plans.
Overall, ET's fundamentals and sector dynamics support a cautious optimism for the next 1 to 3 years. Not investment advice.
“The Partnership expects to invest $5.6 billion to $5.9 billion in growth capital for 2026.”
“The Partnership expects to invest $5.5 billion to $5.9 billion in growth capital for 2026.”
“The Partnership continues to expect to invest $5.0 billion to $5.5 billion in growth capital for 2026.”