Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-09
$4.24-3.64%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Cash from operating activities at least $68 million: Q1 OCF $68.9M vs $68M target; Q2 OCF not reported.
Empire State Realty Trust keeps paying a steady dividend of $0.035 per share. Cash from operations rose to $68.91 million in early 2026. Revenue is expected to grow about 5% next year. The company manages its debt and capital well in a tough market.
Net income dropped sharply from $32.17 million to $2.99 million recently. Profitability may stay weak if costs rise or rents fall. The high price-to-earnings ratio of 42 times risks a valuation pullback.
The price is about 14% above our fair value near $4.84. Analysts expect roughly 5% revenue growth. Our view aligns with this moderate growth but sees limited upside given valuation.
Breaks if: Dividend per share falls below $0.035 in any quarter
Continue paying a quarterly dividend of $0.035 per share to common stockholders and partnership units.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story in the real estate sector. The current thesis state reflects mixed management execution and elevated risk, with a focus on capital recycling and leasing activity.
The market seems to assume a justified valuation, with ESRT being viewed as cheap compared to its peers. There is an expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully account for the recent decline in financial performance.
Fundamentals may face challenges in the near term due to weak recent financial performance. However, management's focus on improving leasing activity and maintaining dividends could provide some stability.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including potential cuts to guidance, interest rate changes by the Fed, and the performance of sector bellwethers. Positive developments in these areas could support a recovery.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. ESRT's recent financial performance fell significantly, dropping to the 19th percentile of its sector. This change indicates a decline in the company's standing among its peers. The market reaction has been muted, with the price moving only modestly compared to the S&P.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company consistently paid a quarterly dividend of $0.035 per share in both 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2. This demonstrates stable dividend maintenance as committed.
“Paid quarterly dividend of $0.035 per share for second quarter of 2026.”
“Paid quarterly dividend of $0.035 per share for first quarter of 2026.”
Breaks if: Net income falls below $1 million in any quarter
Breaks if: Cash from operating activities falls below $50 million in any quarter
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 3% YoY in FY26
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ESRT's performance will depend on management execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.