Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT)

NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-10-23

$5.01+1.62%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	189.09M
EPS	—	0
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	743.08M
EPS	—	0.77
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	755.2M
EPS	—	0.05

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain dividend per share at $0.035	Empire State Realty Trust keeps paying a steady dividend of $0.035 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.035 in any quarter	Dividend per share: $0.04 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.035 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 20260.035 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b0591106-b39a-455c-9429-dd68f13eb6f7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company consistently paid a quarterly dividend of $0.035 per share in both 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2. This demonstrates stable dividend maintenance as committed. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain stable net income near recent levels	A supporting condition in Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $3 million net income.	Intact	Net income falls below $1 million in any quarter	Net income: $-39.554M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3 million net income. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 2026-39,554,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b0591106-b39a-455c-9429-dd68f13eb6f7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Cash from operating activities at least $68 million	Cash from operations rose to $68.91 million in early 2026.	Broken	Cash from operating activities falls below $50 million in any quarter	Cash from operations: $19.542M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $68 million. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 6, 202619,542,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth about 5% per year	Revenue is expected to grow about 5% next year.	Broken	Revenue growth falls below 3% YoY in FY26	Revenue growth: 2.95% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 4.9% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20262.953725 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b0591106-b39a-455c-9429-dd68f13eb6f7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 2
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 2
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 2
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 2
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 2
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 3
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 4
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 4
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 4
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 3
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 3
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 3
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 3
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	— / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
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2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
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2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
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2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
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2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	3	1
2026-06-01	2	3	1
2026-07-01	2	3	1
2026-08-01	2	3	1
2026-09-01	2	3	1
2026-10-01	2	3	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain dividend per share at $0.035Dividend per share: $0.04 per share
Maintain stable net income near recent levelsNet income: $-39.554M
Cash from operating activities at least $68 millionPublished status: Broken
Revenue growth about 5% per yearPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-50.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a real estate recovery and execution story, not a proven steady compounder. Leasing progress is encouraging, but the current thesis remains on watch because recent financial performance trails its industry cohort and confidence has eased to medium.

What's priced into Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.

The valuation evidence is mixed: ESRT is described as cheap versus peers, but it also carries a 0.54 premium versus peers, and the model has low confidence. The priced-in tag is justified, with low fragility; the negative expectations gap suggests expectations are not especially demanding, though the evidence does not show exactly what the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, leasing momentum may support occupancy and rental spreads: leasing rose in the latest quarter, spreads improved, and occupancy edged up to 89.4%. The company has also completed transactions consistent with shifting capital toward New York assets, while maintaining its quarterly dividend; however, recent financial performance is weak, the sector backdrop is a headwind, and guidance cuts are a key risk.

What Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on leasing gains continuing to lift occupancy and rental spreads, and on management executing its shift toward New York assets. Rate cuts or stronger results and guidance from sector peers could help the backdrop, while an ESRT guidance reduction would weaken the case.