ESAB (ESAB)

NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-23

$66.95+0.09%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge ESAB’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.8%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.41 → 6.30 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	782.81M
EPS	—	1.416
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$2.7B	3.05B
EPS	—	5.378
Revenue growth	11%–14%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.32B
EPS	—	6.296

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Complete and integrate Eddyfi acquisition	The company completed the Eddyfi acquisition to boost growth.	Intact	acquisition not completed or integration fails by mid-2026	Acquisition completed June 1, 2026 (ahead of mid-2026 target) ESAB completed the Eddyfi acquisition on June 1, 2026. Q2 2026 earnings highlight integration success and record sales, reinforcing the thesis. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 4 quarters. Management announced the pending acquisition in 2026-Q1 and completed it one month ahead of schedule in 2026-Q2. The acquisition is positioned as a strategic growth driver to extend workflow solutions and accelerate ESAB's compounder journey. The trajectory shows delivery of the acquisition milestone ahead of plan. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Core adjusted EBITDA margin near 19%	Profit margins target near 19% but face some pressure.	Broken	margin falls below 18% next quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Manage asbestos legal risks without margin impact	A supporting condition in ESAB's published investment case. The stated target is no material margin impact from legal claims in FY26.	Under Pressure	legal costs materially reduce margins in FY26	Qualitative: Liability established for Cape asbestos ops ESAB and Altrad held liable for Cape asbestos operations, posing a threat to financial outlook and margin stability. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows at least 8% year over year	ESAB grew revenue 10% year over year in Q1 2026.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 8% in FY26	Revenue growth: 12.86% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=8% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202612.862325 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3dd1f4ce-2163-4f1e-b1fd-023fe464436d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$6.30

$6.51 → $6.30 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.32B

$3.19B → $3.32B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.51	$3,194,931,283	6 / 6
2026-07-25	$6.67	$3,302,909,150	9 / 9
2026-07-26	$6.67	$3,302,909,150	9 / 9
2026-07-27	$6.67	$3,302,909,150	9 / 9
2026-07-28	$6.52	$3,253,709,061	7 / 7
2026-07-29	$6.52	$3,253,709,061	7 / 7
2026-07-30	$6.67	$3,302,909,150	9 / 9
2026-07-31	$6.52	$3,253,709,061	7 / 7
2026-08-01	$6.52	$3,253,709,061	7 / 7
2026-08-02	$6.67	$3,302,909,150	9 / 9
2026-08-03	$6.67	$3,302,909,150	9 / 9
2026-08-04	$6.67	$3,302,909,150	9 / 9
2026-08-05	$6.52	$3,253,709,061	7 / 7
2026-08-06	$6.67	$3,302,909,150	9 / 9
2026-08-07	$6.52	$3,253,709,061	7 / 7
2026-08-08	$6.56	$3,343,481,030	10 / 9
2026-08-09	$6.54	$3,390,768,870	10 / 9
2026-08-10	$6.54	$3,390,768,870	10 / 9
2026-08-11	$6.53	$3,375,213,320	10 / 9
2026-08-12	$6.53	$3,375,213,320	10 / 9
2026-08-13	$6.52	$3,253,709,061	7 / 7
2026-08-14	$6.52	$3,253,709,061	7 / 7
2026-08-15	$6.52	$3,253,709,061	7 / 7
2026-08-16	$6.52	$3,253,709,061	7 / 7
2026-08-17	$6.52	$3,253,709,061	7 / 7
2026-08-18	$6.52	$3,253,709,061	7 / 7
2026-08-19	$6.52	$3,253,709,061	7 / 7
2026-08-20	$6.46	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-08-21	$6.46	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-08-22	$6.46	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-08-23	$6.46	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-08-24	$6.46	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-08-25	$6.46	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-08-26	$6.46	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-08-27	$6.46	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-08-28	$6.46	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-08-29	$6.46	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-08-30	$6.46	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-08-31	$6.46	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-09-01	$6.46	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-09-02	$6.46	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-09-03	$6.46	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-09-04	$6.46	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-09-05	$6.46	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-09-06	$6.46	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-09-07	$6.46	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-09-08	$6.46	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-09-09	$6.46	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-09-10	$6.46	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-09-11	$6.46	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-09-12	$6.46	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-09-13	$6.46	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-09-14	$6.46	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-09-15	$6.46	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-09-16	$6.42	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-09-17	$6.41	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-09-18	$6.41	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-09-19	$6.41	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-09-20	$6.41	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-09-21	$6.41	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-09-22	$6.41	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-09-23	$6.41	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-09-24	$6.41	$3,341,939,955	7 / 7
2026-09-25	$6.41	$3,337,277,050	7 / 8
2026-09-26	$6.41	$3,337,277,050	7 / 8
2026-09-27	$6.41	$3,337,277,050	8 / 8
2026-09-28	$6.41	$3,337,277,050	8 / 8
2026-09-29	$6.41	$3,337,277,050	8 / 8
2026-09-30	$6.41	$3,337,277,050	8 / 8
2026-10-01	$6.41	$3,337,277,050	8 / 8
2026-10-02	$6.41	$3,337,277,050	8 / 8
2026-10-03	$6.41	$3,337,277,050	8 / 8
2026-10-04	$6.41	$3,337,277,050	8 / 8
2026-10-05	$6.41	$3,337,277,050	8 / 8
2026-10-06	$6.41	$3,337,277,050	8 / 8
2026-10-07	$6.41	$3,337,277,050	8 / 8
2026-10-08	$6.41	$3,337,277,050	8 / 8
2026-10-09	$6.39	$3,336,868,333	8 / 8
2026-10-10	$6.37	$3,333,235,000	8 / 8
2026-10-11	$6.37	$3,333,235,000	8 / 8
2026-10-12	$6.37	$3,333,235,000	8 / 8
2026-10-13	$6.37	$3,333,235,000	8 / 8
2026-10-14	$6.37	$3,333,235,000	8 / 8
2026-10-15	$6.37	$3,333,235,000	8 / 8
2026-10-16	$6.37	$3,337,392,648	8 / 8
2026-10-17	$6.37	$3,337,392,648	8 / 8
2026-10-18	$6.37	$3,337,392,648	8 / 8
2026-10-19	$6.37	$3,337,392,648	8 / 8
2026-10-20	$6.33	$3,328,205,148	8 / 8
2026-10-21	$6.33	$3,328,205,148	8 / 8
2026-10-22	$6.30	$3,320,830,148	8 / 8
2026-10-23	$6.30	$3,320,830,148	8 / 8
2026-10-24	$6.30	$3,320,830,148	8 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	0
2026-06-01	10	0
2026-07-01	10	0
2026-08-01	11	1
2026-09-01	10	1
2026-10-01	10	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

OppenheimerOct 21

$110.00New observation · no comparable prior

Stifel NicolausOct 19 · prior Jul 20

$137.00 → $114.00-16.8%

$0$75.35$150.70

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Core adjusted EBITDA margin near 19%Published status: Broken
Manage asbestos legal risks without margin impactPublished status: Under Pressure
Revenue grows at least 8% year over yearRevenue growth: 12.86%

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-52.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

ESAB outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ESAB is a multi-year industrial growth and acquisition story, with management aiming to expand organic sales and margins. The thesis is intact, though confidence is medium and near-term risk is elevated.

What's priced into ESAB

The valuation evidence is mixed: ESAB is flagged as cheap versus peers, while another measure shows a 49% premium to peers. The expectations gap is negative, but model confidence is low, and the overall priced-in assessment is justified rather than fragile.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, an earnings miss and a run of misses raise the risk around the next report. For the multi-year view, management raised 2026 sales and EBITDA guidance and completed the Eddyfi acquisition ahead of schedule, while slightly lowering EPS guidance. Organic sales improved, but margins fell as cost inflation and commercial investment weighed on results.

What ESAB hinges on

The main company-specific test is whether ESAB can deliver on its raised guidance without reversing course, which could damage management credibility. Sector bellwethers’ results may also shape the backdrop: continued strength could support industrial momentum, while weaker results could remove that support.