Erasca, Inc. (ERAS)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$14.39+2.49%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Erasca, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	0
EPS	—	-0.133
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	7.52M
EPS	—	-0.973
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	375,000
EPS	—	-0.621

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Fund operations into second half of 2028	The company aims to fund operations into the second half of 2028.	Intact	Cash runway falls short of H2 2028 funding needs	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities increased from $386.7 million in 2025-Q2 to $408.5 million in 2026-Q1, including proceeds from underwritten offerings. Management consistently affirms funding operations into the second half of 2028, and the trajectory is delivering. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Advance ERAS-0015 clinical trials	Erasca is advancing its ERAS-0015 clinical trials despite challenges.	Improving	Failure to meet mid-2026 Phase 1 data readout or dose escalation delays	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management reported advancing ERAS-0015 clinical development ahead of schedule with monotherapy expansion and combination dose escalation cohorts initiated ahead of original guidance. No financial metrics directly tied to this priority are available, but clinical milestones are progressing as stated. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Manage IP litigation risk on ERAS-0015	A primary condition in Erasca, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Resolve or mitigate IP litigation without blocking ERAS-0015 development.	Under Pressure	Unfavorable IP rulings that halt ERAS-0015 development	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.62

$-0.55 → $-0.62 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-0.55	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-07-25	$-0.55	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-07-26	$-0.55	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-07-27	$-0.55	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-07-28	$-0.55	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-07-29	$-0.55	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-07-30	$-0.55	$500,000	9 / 6
2026-07-31	$-0.55	$500,000	9 / 6
2026-08-01	$-0.55	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-02	$-0.55	$500,000	9 / 6
2026-08-03	$-0.55	$500,000	9 / 6
2026-08-04	$-0.55	$500,000	9 / 6
2026-08-05	$-0.55	$500,000	9 / 6
2026-08-06	$-0.55	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-07	$-0.55	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-08	$-0.56	$500,000	9 / 6
2026-08-09	$-0.56	$500,000	9 / 6
2026-08-10	$-0.55	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-11	$-0.56	$500,000	9 / 6
2026-08-12	$-0.55	$600,000	8 / 5
2026-08-13	$-0.55	$600,000	8 / 5
2026-08-14	$-0.55	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-15	$-0.55	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-16	$-0.55	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-17	$-0.55	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-18	$-0.55	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-19	$-0.55	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-20	$-0.59	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-21	$-0.60	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-22	$-0.60	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-23	$-0.60	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-24	$-0.60	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-25	$-0.60	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-26	$-0.60	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-27	$-0.60	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-28	$-0.60	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-29	$-0.60	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-30	$-0.60	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-08-31	$-0.60	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-01	$-0.60	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-02	$-0.60	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-03	$-0.60	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-04	$-0.60	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-05	$-0.60	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-06	$-0.60	Unavailable	8 / 4
2026-09-07	$-0.60	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-09-08	$-0.60	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-09-09	$-0.60	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-09-10	$-0.60	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-09-11	$-0.60	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-09-12	$-0.60	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-09-13	$-0.60	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-09-14	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-09-15	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-09-16	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-09-17	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-09-18	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-09-19	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-09-20	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-09-21	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-09-22	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-09-23	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-09-24	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-09-25	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-09-26	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-09-27	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-09-28	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-09-29	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-09-30	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-01	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-02	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-03	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-04	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-05	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-06	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-07	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-08	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-09	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-10	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-11	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-12	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-13	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-14	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-15	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-16	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-17	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-18	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-19	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-20	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-21	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-22	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-23	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4
2026-10-24	$-0.62	Unavailable	7 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	1	1
2026-06-01	8	2	1
2026-07-01	8	2	0
2026-08-01	8	2	0
2026-09-01	8	2	0
2026-10-01	7	2	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Fund operations into second half of 2028Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Advance ERAS-0015 clinical trialsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Manage IP litigation risk on ERAS-0015Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 11, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-59.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Erasca, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative clinical-development thesis, not an established earnings compounder. The thesis is in a watch state: trial progress and funding are on track, but recent financial performance is weak and confidence in the overall assessment is low.

What's priced into Erasca, Inc.

The snapshot provides no valuation level or clear account of what market expectations already assume, so whether ERAS is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. Its muted recent price reaction and lack of flagged pricing fragility do not establish that the company’s execution risks are reflected in expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, earnings-miss risk is elevated, and the company has missed in recent quarters. Management says its cash and marketable securities support operations into the second half of 2028, while ERAS-0015 trials have advanced ahead of schedule; licensing and collaboration progress is mixed, with no direct financial impact reported. The recent COO transition, litigation filing, and weak financial performance add uncertainty.

What Erasca, Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on whether ERAS avoids another guidance cut or earnings miss and continues advancing ERAS-0015 clinical trials. Funding through the second half of 2028 is a key support, while expanding collaborations could help development but has not yet shown a direct financial effect. A weaker jobs trend could weigh on sector sentiment, while strong results and guidance from sector peers could provide a tailwind.