Equifax (EFX)

NYSEIndustrialsConsulting ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$161.25-0.01%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Equifax’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

10.16 → 10.00 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain financial flexibility via revolving credit agreement	A supporting condition in Equifax's published investment case. The stated target is No material restrictions on credit facility.	Intact	Credit agreement imposes significant financial constraints	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve EPS near $8.54 in 2026	A primary condition in Equifax's published investment case. The stated target is ~$8.54 per share.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $7.5 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $1.54 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$8.54 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 21, 20261.54 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bc7cb462-2caa-4485-aeb0-cee9c65a027a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain revenue near $6.75B in 2026	A primary condition in Equifax's published investment case. The stated target is ~$6.75B.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $6.0B in FY26	Revenue: $1.7B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$6.75B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 21, 20261,700,100,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bc7cb462-2caa-4485-aeb0-cee9c65a027a. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$10.00

$10.16 → $10.00 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$7.29B

$7.35B → $7.29B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$10.16	$7,354,872,369	19 / 22
2026-07-25	$10.17	$7,359,167,860	23 / 21
2026-07-26	$10.16	$7,354,872,369	19 / 22
2026-07-27	$10.16	$7,354,872,369	19 / 22
2026-07-28	$10.16	$7,354,872,369	19 / 22
2026-07-29	$10.16	$7,347,526,260	22 / 20
2026-07-30	$10.17	$7,358,099,642	18 / 21
2026-07-31	$10.16	$7,347,526,260	22 / 20
2026-08-01	$10.17	$7,358,099,642	18 / 20
2026-08-02	$10.16	$7,347,526,260	22 / 20
2026-08-03	$10.17	$7,358,099,642	18 / 20
2026-08-04	$10.17	$7,358,099,642	18 / 20
2026-08-05	$10.17	$7,358,099,642	18 / 20
2026-08-06	$10.16	$7,347,536,260	22 / 20
2026-08-07	$10.17	$7,358,099,642	18 / 20
2026-08-08	$10.16	$7,347,536,260	22 / 20
2026-08-09	$10.16	$7,347,536,260	22 / 20
2026-08-10	$10.17	$7,358,099,642	18 / 20
2026-08-11	$10.16	$7,347,536,260	22 / 20
2026-08-12	$10.16	$7,347,536,260	22 / 20
2026-08-13	$10.17	$7,358,099,642	18 / 20
2026-08-14	$10.17	$7,358,099,642	18 / 20
2026-08-15	$10.17	$7,358,099,642	18 / 20
2026-08-16	$10.17	$7,358,099,642	18 / 20
2026-08-17	$10.17	$7,358,099,642	18 / 20
2026-08-18	$10.17	$7,358,099,642	18 / 20
2026-08-19	$10.17	$7,358,099,642	18 / 20
2026-08-20	$10.17	$7,358,099,642	18 / 17
2026-08-21	$10.17	$7,358,090,551	18 / 17
2026-08-22	$10.17	$7,358,090,551	17 / 17
2026-08-23	$10.16	$7,356,659,319	17 / 17
2026-08-24	$10.16	$7,356,659,319	14 / 17
2026-08-25	$10.16	$7,356,659,319	15 / 17
2026-08-26	$10.16	$7,356,659,319	15 / 16
2026-08-27	$10.16	$7,356,659,319	15 / 16
2026-08-28	$10.16	$7,356,659,319	15 / 16
2026-08-29	$10.16	$7,356,659,319	15 / 16
2026-08-30	$10.16	$7,356,659,319	15 / 16
2026-08-31	$10.16	$7,356,659,319	15 / 16
2026-09-01	$10.16	$7,356,659,319	15 / 16
2026-09-02	$10.16	$7,356,659,319	15 / 16
2026-09-03	$10.16	$7,356,659,319	15 / 16
2026-09-04	$10.16	$7,356,659,319	15 / 16
2026-09-05	$10.16	$7,356,659,319	15 / 16
2026-09-06	$10.16	$7,354,845,683	15 / 16
2026-09-07	$10.16	$7,354,845,683	15 / 16
2026-09-08	$10.16	$7,354,845,683	15 / 16
2026-09-09	$10.16	$7,349,886,590	15 / 17
2026-09-10	$10.16	$7,349,886,590	15 / 17
2026-09-11	$10.16	$7,349,886,592	15 / 17
2026-09-12	$10.16	$7,350,518,427	15 / 17
2026-09-13	$10.16	$7,350,518,427	15 / 17
2026-09-14	$10.16	$7,350,518,427	15 / 17
2026-09-15	$10.16	$7,350,518,427	15 / 17
2026-09-16	$10.16	$7,350,518,427	15 / 17
2026-09-17	$10.16	$7,350,518,427	15 / 17
2026-09-18	$10.16	$7,354,489,638	15 / 17
2026-09-19	$10.16	$7,354,489,638	15 / 17
2026-09-20	$10.16	$7,354,489,638	15 / 17
2026-09-21	$10.16	$7,354,489,638	15 / 17
2026-09-22	$10.16	$7,354,489,638	15 / 17
2026-09-23	$10.16	$7,354,489,638	15 / 17
2026-09-24	$10.15	$7,352,928,595	15 / 17
2026-09-25	$10.15	$7,352,928,595	15 / 17
2026-09-26	$10.15	$7,352,928,595	15 / 17
2026-09-27	$10.15	$7,352,928,595	15 / 17
2026-09-28	$10.15	$7,352,928,595	15 / 17
2026-09-29	$10.15	$7,352,928,595	15 / 17
2026-09-30	$10.14	$7,352,929,876	15 / 17
2026-10-01	$10.13	$7,348,437,885	15 / 17
2026-10-02	$10.13	$7,348,437,885	15 / 17
2026-10-03	$10.11	$7,348,437,885	15 / 17
2026-10-04	$10.11	$7,348,437,885	15 / 17
2026-10-05	$10.11	$7,348,437,885	15 / 17
2026-10-06	$10.11	$7,348,437,885	15 / 17
2026-10-07	$10.09	$7,340,975,391	15 / 17
2026-10-08	$10.08	$7,335,524,275	15 / 17
2026-10-09	$10.08	$7,330,101,024	14 / 17
2026-10-10	$10.08	$7,330,086,644	14 / 17
2026-10-11	$10.08	$7,330,086,644	14 / 17
2026-10-12	$10.08	$7,330,086,644	14 / 17
2026-10-13	$10.08	$7,328,096,644	14 / 17
2026-10-14	$10.00	$7,289,151,794	14 / 17
2026-10-15	$10.00	$7,289,151,794	14 / 17

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	18	7
2026-06-01	17	7
2026-07-01	17	8
2026-08-01	17	8
2026-09-01	19	7
2026-10-01	19	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Goldman SachsOct 2 · prior Sep 29

$171.00 → $148.00-13.5%

BarclaysOct 2 · prior Jul 22

$200.00 → $155.00-22.5%

Credit SuisseSep 30

$160.00New observation · no comparable prior

Wells FargoSep 22 · prior Jul 22

$212.00 → $200.00-5.7%

$0$116.60$233.20

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain financial flexibility via revolving credit agreementQualitative condition
Achieve EPS near $8.54 in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Maintain revenue near $6.75B in 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 20, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-41.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Equifax outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder, focusing on consistent revenue growth through innovation and capital returns. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and management priorities.

What's priced into Equifax

The valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, with a slight expectations gap indicating that the market may not fully account for the company's robust earnings quality and management stability. The current pricing reflects a low fragility tier, suggesting limited immediate risk.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to show continued double-digit revenue growth driven by new product innovation and strong local currency performance. However, there is a near-term risk of missing earnings estimates, although the probability remains low.

What Equifax hinges on

The thesis hinges on external factors such as the performance of sector bellwethers like BAH, FCN, and HURN. If these companies continue to beat earnings and guide higher, EFX may benefit from positive sector momentum; conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could impact EFX's outlook.